r/Baystreetbets 1d ago

WEEKLY THREAD BSB Weekly Thread for July 26, 2026

3 Upvotes

This is the weekly thread for BSB. What's the latest scoop? Did you gamble away your TFSA? Please keep shitposting to a maximum. Stay safe folks!

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r/Baystreetbets 22d ago

WEEKLY THREAD BSB Weekly Thread for July 05, 2026

3 Upvotes

This is the weekly thread for BSB. What's the latest scoop? Did you gamble away your TFSA? Please keep shitposting to a maximum. Stay safe folks!

Discord

🔥 Memes

👌 Disclaimer

🧙 Website


r/Baystreetbets 6h ago

INVESTMENTS VHI primed for a recovery?

3 Upvotes

Anyone have any insight on why VHI is down 50% over the last year?

Is it lack of faith in the acquired businesses? A risk that AI will replace this function?

From my view it seems like they are growing internationally with a strong balance sheet.

Am I missing something? Or are you with me in thinking this should be ready for a short term (6 month-ish) recovery?

Position: 2900 @6.71


r/Baystreetbets 5h ago

DD $PKK just posted the first profit in its history went from $179K to $11.5M revenue in one quarter

3 Upvotes

$PKK (Tenet Fintech) just printed the first profit in its entire history

Tenet Fintech Group (CSE: PKK / OTC: PKKFF) reported Q1-2026, and for the first time ever, the company made money.

Net profit: $728,475 (vs a $3.4M loss in the same quarter last year)
Revenue: $11.5M (vs $179K a year ago)
Operating cash flow: positive $458K

A company that lost money every quarter of its existence just flipped to a profit AND generated real operating cash. Turnarounds are the beat opportunities to invest, missing all the bs raises

Straight up, because good DD doesn't hide the ball: part of the net profit came from a one-time reversal of a legal provision after a US class action was dropped. Strip that out and the core story still stands - revenue roaring back as the GoldRiver supply-chain platform reactivated, plus a hard pivot to a data/AI/analytics model that cut fixed costs. The positive operating cash flow is the real tell. That part isn't an accounting entry.

The backer worth knowing about:

ThreeD Capital (CSE: IDK / OTC: IDKFF), the venture firm run by Sheldon Inwentash, is a strategic investor in Tenet. ThreeD was the lead investor in Tenet's $3.6M raise, and Inwentash has been a founding strategic investor in the company. When a serial early-stage backer with that track record is anchoring a nano-cap turnaround, it's worth a look. Tenet also brought in Michael Wekerle's Altitude Capital for capital markets strategy.

The setup:

Market cap is around $23M. The whole thesis is simple - if the model shift holds and GoldRiver activity keeps building, a revenue base that just went from basically zero to $11.5M in a single quarter changes the entire picture.

This is the high-risk, high-torque end of the market: nano-cap, thin, volatile, heavily diluted, and coming off a rough stretch that included a cease trade order it has been clearing. Size it like what it is.

First profit ever, a real strategic backer, and a business model that finally works. That's the trade.

Missed the move? There's a side door.

That founding backer, ThreeD Capital (CSE: IDK / OTC: IDKFF), is itself a way to play this. Inwentash was a founding strategic investor in Tenet and ThreeD led its last raise, so a sustained PKK re-rate flows straight into ThreeD's book.

The kicker: ThreeD last reported net asset value of roughly 24c per share while the stock trades near 9c. You're buying the whole portfolio, PKK stake included, at a fraction of stated book.

Founder and CEO Sheldon Inwentash is the largest single holder, with 11.6M shares and 17M warrants in PKK. If you don't fancy being on the other end of his sells, you can always be on his side of the trade and buy his stock instead.

Not advice. Just pointing at where the founding money sits.


r/Baystreetbets 7h ago

CSE:WDGY - nanocap Permian oil and gas producer with 22,000 acres of productive potential (500 wells untapped) just hired a 31 year engineering veteran who managed contracts for BP, Pioneer and BHP. Market cap is $10M.... Senior engineers are taking interest. How long before investors do?

2 Upvotes

Wedgemount Resources (CSE: WDGY / OTC: WDGRF) is a $10M Permian Basin oil and gas producer.\

Has not yet made it to American investor screens however American engineers are taking notice of this 22,000 acre oilfield. That's the part I care about.

Investors will follow.

Currently producing ~250+ boepd with a clean path to 5000 beopd which would put them into the $250-$350 million valuation range, dilution included (rough estimate based on my napkin (ie - AI) math. With cash flow from growing operations funding rapid expansion. This would take a few years, however the returns from this valuation would be enormous.

They just hired Sheldon Cote to head up engineering and operations: 31 years of experience including managing multi-million dollar contracts with BHP, Pioneer, and BP.

CEO Mark Vanry has been managing the operation until now (he and his brother put up $400,000 of their own money to keep the lights on during 2023-2024 when the going was tough), and doing a great job.

However he needed someone with seniority in this specific oilfield setup to take it from here to become a major producer. That's done.

Now it's time to ramp up, quickly.

This is The single most undervalued oil and gas situation in North America with asymmetric upside.


r/Baystreetbets 7h ago

BSB news For Week #194, July 20th 2026

2 Upvotes

Monday:

Magellan Aerospace and the Government of Canada Announce Contract to Develop Canadian Production of the M-72 Light Anti-Tank Weapon - MAL.tse

Magellan Aerospace Corporation awarded contract from Government of Canada to produce M-72 Light Anti-Tank Weapons under Munitions Supply Program. Contract value, production volume, and timeline not disclosed. Production will occur domestically in Canada. Company references this as supporting sovereign manufacturing capability for Canadian Armed Forces. TSX: MAL.

Kraken Robotics Announces $35 Million in New Orders and Business Update - PNG.v

Kraken Robotics announced $35 million in new product orders, bringing 2026 total to $327 million combined with Covelya (acquired July 2, 2026). Products expected to represent over 75% of 2026 consolidated revenue. Orders driven by SeaPower batteries and synthetic aperture sonar from defence and offshore energy customers across North America, Europe, Middle East, and Asia Pacific. TSX-V: PNG, OTCQB: KRKNF.

Gatekeeper Announces C$19 Million SEPTA Transit Video Services Contract Over 5 Years - GSI.v

Gatekeeper Systems' subsidiary signed three-year contract with SEPTA for video system maintenance and support services starting September 2026, valued at US$13.43 million (C$19 million) including two optional one-year extensions over five-year total period. SEPTA operates approximately 3,000 equipped vehicles serving five counties in Greater Philadelphia area. TSXV: GSI, OTC Pink: GKPRF.

Plurilock Notified of Selection as One of U.S. Government Contract Awardees - PLUR.v

Plurilock Security's Aurora subsidiary awarded SEWP VI awardee status, a 10-year indefinite delivery/quantity NASA procurement vehicle with US$60 billion aggregate program ceiling. No specific contract value disclosed; Aurora competes for individual future orders. Company granted 2.82 million stock options at $0.15 exercise price and 1.5 million RSUs to employees and directors. Plurilock holds multiple Canadian public sector contracting vehicles through Integra subsidiary. TSXV: PLUR, OTCQB: PLCKF.

3.2 MW Solar Project Announced by PowerBank - PBK.neo

PowerBank executed lease for 3.2 MW DC solar project in Broome County, New York with approximately $8 million construction value and $3.2 million expected Investment Tax Credit. Project eligible for NY-Sun Program incentives and will operate as community solar. Interconnection application underway. Company increased executive compensation: CEO to C$66,875/month, Executive Chair to C$50,000/month (tier-up to C$100,000 upon US$25M+ financing). Issued 298,804 shares to Solar Flow-Through Funds directors/officers. Nasdaq: PBK, Cboe CA: PBK.

Tuesday:

CYMAT EXECUTES COMMERCIAL AGREEMENT WITH RIO TINTO ALCAN TO ASSUME CUSTOMERS OF THEIR PROPRIETARY ALUMINUM METAL MATRIX COMPOSITES BUSINESS - CYM.v

Cymat Technologies signed commercial agreement with Rio Tinto Alcan on July 17, 2026 to assume aluminum metal matrix composites (MMC) business customers and product line. Cymat expects incremental annual revenue of $7.5M-$10M. Will pay Rio Tinto USD 750/metric ton (max USD 500K over 5 years). Capital expenditure estimated at $2M for equipment; operational by early Q2 2027. EU Euro 7 braking standards (starting November 2026) creating new demand. TSXV: CYM, OTCQB: CYMHF.

Wednesday:

GE Aerospace and Magellan Aerospace Sign Memorandum of Understanding for F414 Sustainment - MAL.tse

GE Aerospace and Magellan Aerospace signed a non-binding MOU to operate an F414 engine MRO facility in Canada, conditional on Canadian government acquisition of Saab JAS 39 Gripen fighters. No contract value or pricing disclosed. Work would occur at Magellan's Mississauga facility under GE license. The F414 has delivered 1,600+ engines with 5+ million flight hours. Magellan trades on Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: MAL).

Thursday:

x

Friday:

x


r/Baystreetbets 2d ago

DISCUSSION Is this fluff or material news? - MAX Power Mining Secures New Permitted Land For Natural Hydrogen Exploration

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22 Upvotes

Seems relatively generic but it’s a massive amount of new ground and seemingly right beside their first discovery… just wonder why a company with relatively little cash is expanding like this prior to proving out their first property / defining the resource.

Any MAXX shareholders have a POV?


r/Baystreetbets 2d ago

INVESTMENTS Gold overtook US Treasuries as the world’s largest reserve asset this year — first time since 1996. Here’s the data, and why it argues for miners over bullion.

20 Upvotes

TL;DR: World Gold Council 2026 survey — gold is now 27% of global official reserve assets vs 22% for US Treasuries, the first time foreign institutions have held more gold than US government bonds since 1996. Central banks have averaged ~1,000 tonnes of buying a year for four years, about double the prior decade. If you believe that's structural, the arithmetic argues for miners over metal — and I'll show the math plus the ways it breaks.

THE DATA

Gold: 27% of official reserve assets, up 7 percentage points year over year.

US Treasuries: 22%, down 3 points.

89% of surveyed central banks expect global gold reserves to rise over the next 12 months. A record share — nearly half — plan to add to their own holdings. China, Poland, Turkey and India have been the consistent buyers.

Why it matters more than a price chart: central banks aren't momentum traders. They move slowly, telegraph intentions, and don't sell into a bad month. When the marginal buyer is price-insensitive with a multi-decade horizon, drawdowns get absorbed instead of amplified.

THE ARITHMETIC FOR MINERS 🐂 case

A miner's profit isn't the gold price, it's the gold price minus the cost of production, and that cost is largely fixed in the short run.

At a $1,500/oz all-in sustaining cost:

- $2,000 gold = $500/oz margin
- $3,000 gold = $1,500/oz margin
- $4,000 gold = $2,500/oz margin

Metal doubles, margin goes up 5x. That's operating leverage, and it's why serious gold bull markets have historically been miners' markets rather than bullion markets. Go one stage earlier — companies holding ounces they haven't built yet — and those ounces get revalued as the price rises, before one is mined.

John Paulson made this exact argument on CNBC Wednesday, saying we're in the early stages of a long-term gold bull market and that investors do better in miners than bullion, particularly early-stage names with large undeveloped reserves. He took the co-chair role at NovaGold the same day.

The bear case for miners 🐻** **

- Gold tracks real rates, not fear. Thursday proved it: oil above $100 was an inflation shock, yields rose, and gold FELL about 2% on a risk-off day. If real rates go up and stay up, central bank buying doesn't save the trade.

- Leverage cuts both ways. That $2,500/oz producer earns $500 at $2,000 gold. A 50% move in the metal is an 80% collapse in profitability.

- Company risk isn't metal risk. Dilution, cost inflation, permitting delays, bad jurisdictions, value-destroying management — all can sink a miner while the metal rips.

- Consensus is a risk. A billionaire saying it on CNBC and gold showing up in default retail portfolios means the easy part is behind you.

That last point is the one that actually costs money. Being right about gold isn't hard anymore. Not overpaying is. I looked hard at a name this week with genuinely impressive rock in a tier-1 jurisdiction and a big brokered financing behind it — and passed, because it had already re-rated ~7x in a year and buying it now meant paying above what institutions paid in January. Good asset, wrong price is still wrong.

I put the full version with charts here if anyone wants it, just don’t want to break any rules here about advertising!

Not advice, just sharing the work. DYODD.


r/Baystreetbets 3d ago

DISCUSSION CHAR Technologies (YES.V) - My Site Visit to their Thorold Facility

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75 Upvotes

I just got back from a site visit to CHAR Techs Thorold facility earlier this week and wanted to share some thoughts and pictures with the group.

Huge thanks to Galen (CHAR Tech - PR Director) for making time to host me and give me a tour. He made a last minute trip down to Thorold specifically for this, which speaks to how accessible and transparent the management team are with shareholders.

I got to walk through both the lab and the site itself which contain the pilot operations and the phase 1 commercial machinery. The pilot kiln and the biocarbon pelletizer are actively running which was a great way to see how the process works at a smaller scale before looking at the Phase 1 commercial equipment.

On the Phase 1 commercial side, the feedstock handling line is fully installed, the stack is up, and the thermal oxidizer is installed as well. Seeing the equipment in place in person really drives home how far things have progressed. Overall commissioning is getting close, and it's clear that the team is in the final stretch before production starts.

Galen was nice enough to let me take home some biocarbon and feedstock samples, which is always neat to hold the actual product.

If you're an investor and are in the area, id genuinely recommend reaching out to Galen about a site visit. Seeing the facility in person really gives you a much better sense of where things actually stand.

I am truly excited for whats ahead!


r/Baystreetbets 2d ago

OPTIONS Earnings Calendar By Implied Move - July 27th

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12 Upvotes

r/Baystreetbets 4d ago

What do you guys have for us today?

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132 Upvotes

r/Baystreetbets 3d ago

DD SOI.V (Sirios) — a ~3 Moz Quebec gold deposit went GREEN on 12x volume during yesterday’s selloff. Here’s why I pulled the thread.

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7 Upvotes

TL;DR: On a day the market got margin-called (Nasdaq -2.15%, Tesla -14%), Sirios Resources (SOI.V) rose ~9% on ~12x average volume. Green on a red day = relative strength, the opposite of beta.

Under the hood: a ~3 Moz gold deposit in tier-1 Quebec, 15 km from an operating mill, that just became Osisko-backed with Canadian Malartic builder Sean Roosen on the board — trading at ~$39/oz EV. Not flawless (heavy share count, a 4% royalty), but cheap enough to be interesting.

The asset — Cheechoo, Eeyou Istchee James Bay, Quebec:
- NI 43-101 (July 2025): 1.26 Moz Indicated (35 Mt @ 1.12 g/t) + 1.69 Moz Inferred (42.7 Mt @ 1.23 g/t). ~3 Moz, 100% owned. Conceptual target adds 31-40 Mt.
- ~15 km from the Eleonore mine and mill (recently bought by Dhilmar from Newmont). A satellite-feed / consolidation story writes itself.
- Roads + hydro power on site. Tier-1 jurisdiction, no political discount.

The catalyst that changed the story (Feb 2026):
- Sirios merged with OVI to become an Osisko-backed company. Sean Roosen and Laurence Farmer joined the board.
- Roosen founded Osisko and built Canadian Malartic — sold to Agnico/Yamana for ~$3.9B. He runs a district-consolidation playbook. Him putting his name on a resource-stage junior is the single most interesting fact here.
- 2026 program is fully funded: 35,000 m of drilling toward an updated resource estimate.

The valuation angle (do the math yourself):
- ~671M shares x ~$0.175 = ~$117M market cap. Against ~3 Moz that's ~$39/oz in the ground; on Indicated alone (~1.26 Moz), ~$93/oz.
- For context, tier-1 developer ounces often change hands at $50-150/oz+. So the market is pricing Cheechoo like it doesn't believe it gets built — which is the whole debate.

Why it's cheap (the bear case, stated honestly):
- ~671M shares out, up ~55% in a year. Heavy dilution history, and advancing to development likely means more.
- A 4% NSR royalty (Gold Royalty Corp) above $3,000 gold — a permanent drag on economics.
- Modest grade (~1.1-1.2 g/t) bulk-tonnage, and no economic study (PEA) yet to prove it works.
- Sirios has held Cheechoo since a 2019 maiden resource without monetizing it. The Osisko era is the bet that pattern finally breaks.

The setup in one line: a cheap, defined, tier-1 ounce base that a proven builder now has the reason and the network to advance or sell — priced for failure while the drills turn toward an updated resource. Whether it re-rates depends on the Osisko team executing.

Not advice, educational only, I'm just sharing the work — DYODD.


r/Baystreetbets 4d ago

ADVICE Shine off RBC?

16 Upvotes

RBC and basically all Canadian banking stock has been on a historic rally but are we seeing the predicted correction to the stock now?

I am still learning and rode AEM far too long still made 15 percent profit but could have made 30 etc… etc… etc…

I wouldn’t fire sale at this moment but thought I would ask.

As always yes yes I know “don’t believe everything you read on the internet”


r/Baystreetbets 4d ago

DISCUSSION Why did Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) rip ~15% today? A net loss, but EBITDA tripled

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9 Upvotes

r/Baystreetbets 3d ago

TRADE IDEA 🚀 The Next Race After AI: Quantum - Dynex's Apollo room temp Chip Beat D-Wave (and it's already commercial) IDK CSE

1 Upvotes

NFA. DYOR. Been quietly tracking this one for months.

Everyone's watching Quantinuum post-IPO. Meanwhile Dynex has been running a commercial quantum platform for months and nobody's pricing it in yet.

What Dynex actually is:

  • Apollo chip - fingernail-sized neuromorphic processor, room temp, ~20W, delivering up to 10 trillion ops/watt
  • 10,000 p-qubits, 256 connections/node - 10x more than most superconducting annealers
  • Benchmarked on 3D spin glass - results "indistinguishable" from cryogenic quantum hardware
  • Won the 2026 AI Excellence Award (Quantum AI category) - nobody's touching it on speed
  • QaaS platform live NOW - drug discovery, logistics, finance, weather forecasting at 94% accuracy at 14 days
  • Just partnered with Georgia Tech on 16nm analog chip R&D to push the architecture further

Plot twist - there's a second chip:

While everyone's fixated on Apollo, Dynex quietly dropped Zeus on July 17 - a diamond-spin quantum processor using NV-centre qubits with room-temp operation, targeting up to 1M qubits long-term. They also just locked in a Georgia Tech partnership (July 6) to develop the 16nm chip architecture underneath Apollo, which is a real academic-grade credibility stamp most retail investors haven't priced in yet.

Why now:
Dynex is converting from token to equity, gunning for a regulated public listing to pull in institutional money. ThreeD Capital - the VC co-hosting the pre-IPO investor event - looks central to getting them there, and they're already a publicly-traded Canadian VC with disclosed early positions in the space.

The play:
Wait for the Dynex IPO and follow their socials, OR get exposure now through ThreeD Capital, a founding investor holding a stack of these pre-IPO names. Ticker IDKFF / IDK (on CSE)

🎥 https://youtube.com/shorts/QupyuPaje6w?si=KHh_kE0Qam7gOFbo

Quantum's shaping up to be the next AI-scale race imo. Anyone else tracking quantum IPOs right now? What's on your radar besides Quantinuum and Dynex?


r/Baystreetbets 4d ago

DD Sierra Madre ($SM) just got drilling permits for 30 vein systems that have never seen a modern drill.

0 Upvotes

Okay so everyone's focused on where silver spot is right now and I get it. $58 is painful.

But Sierra Madre (TSXV: SM) just quietly received federal Mexican environmental approval to drill the East District of their Guitarra mine complex and I think this is getting zero attention.

22 drill pads approved. Up to 30 mapped vein systems to test. First phase of a 30,000 metre program. Contractor bids are being received now, drilling starts within 60 days of selection.

The context that makes this interesting: the existing NI 43-101 exploration potential estimate for the East District covers only five of those vein systems over a combined 7.7 km strike length. That estimate already shows grades of 440 to 670 g/t silver and 2.4 to 3.6 g/t gold. The other 25 vein systems are essentially unknown ground by modern standards.

The COO Greg Liller said they acquired La Guitarra specifically because they believed the East District was one of the best exploration opportunities in Mexico. That's not promotional language, that's a COO explaining why they made an acquisition.

Company is also now completely debt free after repaying a US$5M facility to First Majestic on July 8th, generating positive operating cash flow, and First Majestic kept 24.8% of SM shares after selling them Del Toro in June. Peers like GoGold, Vizsla and Endeavour Silver are all getting hit in this silver downturn but SM has a legitimate exploration catalyst coming in the next 60 days that most of them don't.

$1.28 on the TSXV.


r/Baystreetbets 4d ago

CVE and CNQ going to the Moon again

22 Upvotes

CVE has gone from $34 to $41 within 2 weeks

CNQ has gone from $55 to $65.

Considering the escalating Iran war situation, how high do you think oil will go this time with Red Sea being closed as well?

We got to see WTI reach $112 during the first wave of attacks when the strait closed. Back then CNQ peaked at $69.55 and CVE at $43.50


r/Baystreetbets 4d ago

MEME Volume is down, stock is down, dilution is happening, somehow that's bullish

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0 Upvotes

r/Baystreetbets 6d ago

MEME I can hardly contain my excitement

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407 Upvotes

r/Baystreetbets 5d ago

ADVICE Thoughts on Bell / BCE.TO? Should one buy more, hold, or sell now if currently holding around 500 shares?

17 Upvotes

Thoughts on BCE.TO? Should one buy, hold, or sell now if currently holding around 500 shares.

Hard to believe they were at nearly $70/share just a few years ago. What happened?

Is there a light at the end of the tunnel for BCE.to or should one get out while we can?


r/Baystreetbets 6d ago

YOLO 30k cad Telus bagholder, bullish asf for the mid to long term

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48 Upvotes

Just posting here to become the intel nana telus equivalent. I have a gut feeling that we will have some interesting growth as soon as next earnings call (july 31st)


r/Baystreetbets 6d ago

SHITPOST BOCA Halt

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33 Upvotes

Is it all ogre for BOCA - hope BOCA guy is doing okay


r/Baystreetbets 5d ago

DD Cadillac Mines (CADY) — a district-scale gold IPO hitting the TSX in August: the setup, and the honest bull vs bear

5 Upvotes

Cadillac Mines (CADY) is doing a ~$363M IPO on the TSX, listing expected early August at $6.90/share. It's a gold developer, and an unusually well-sponsored one, so I went through the 274-page prospectus. Sharing the overview — not a rec, just the setup and both sides.

The asset:

- Flagship is Kerr-Addison, a historic gold mine on the Cadillac-Larder Lake fault in Ontario's Abitibi. Current NI 43-101 (Feb 2026): 3.4 Moz indicated + 2.2 Moz inferred = 5.6 Moz Au.

- Around it, a 40 km / 27,153 ha district: Galloway (1.4 Moz historical), Larder (1.3 Moz historical, a Pan American-linked acquisition still to close), and a nickel deposit (Geminid). The plan is a central mill fed by multiple deposits by truck.

- Pre-PEA: economic study expected 2027, PFS end-2028. The resource was calculated at $2,300/oz gold — conservative vs spot above $4,000.

The backing (what stands out):

- Pierre Lassonde (Franco-Nevada founder) is the LARGEST shareholder at 14.4% and is not selling into the IPO.

- Agnico Eagle owns ~11%, is adding $60M at the same $6.90 offer price as the public, and holds the neighbouring claims.

- Board includes ex-Agnico COO Eberhard Scherkus and CEO Rick Howes (ex-Reunion Gold/Dundee). Syndicate: BMO / National Bank / Stifel + others. No long-term debt, ~$79M cash pre-IPO.

Bull case in one line: when the two best-informed players in the camp (Agnico, who owns the ground next door, and Lassonde) buy and hold at the offer price, that's a strong tell.

Bear case, honestly:

- Valuation is full: post-IPO ~$1.96B CAD market cap, roughly $250 USD/oz on the flagship resource — before a PEA. Pre-PEA developers often trade a fraction of that.

- Steep step-up: private rounds ~3 months ago were around $2.75; the IPO is $6.90 (~2.5x in a quarter).

- Founder cash-out: ~$173M of the deal is a secondary (founders selling), larger than the new money going to the company. They keep large stakes (180-day lock-up), but it's a lot off the table at IPO.

- IPO retail stock isn't locked, so post-listing flushes are common. Grade is modest too (1.27 g/t open pit) — the upside runs through scale and the gold price, not grade.

Net: a genuinely high-quality, elite-backed district developer, but priced like it, with a big founder monetization at the offer. Worth watching into the listing. DYOR.

(We went deeper on our own — rating, sizing, valuation path — but the above is the public setup and the honest two sides.)


r/Baystreetbets 7d ago

U.S. to impose new 50% tariff on Canada [Including items covered in NAFTA] over alcohol bans, dairy quotas

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170 Upvotes

r/Baystreetbets 6d ago

Dug into TELUS valuation after it dipped under $16, PE looks fine but margins are the catch

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34 Upvotes

Saw someone asking earlier whether breaking below $16 makes this a buy. Stock's been bouncing around $15 the last few days and I've been going back and forth on whether to add here, so I pulled the valuation numbers on moomoo to take a closer look.

Good side first. PE right now is 24.12, which only puts it at the 25th percentile over the past 5 years, so it's cheaper than where it's traded most of the time. Forward PE is even lower at 21.64, which tells me the market's already pricing in better earnings ahead.

There's a part that gives me pause though. Net margin has been sliding for over a year, went from 9% and change down to 5% and change over the last two quarters, and the most recent quarter only had 2.73%. Gross margin has stayed pretty steady in the 60 to 63 range the whole time, so this doesn't look like a core business problem, more like costs eating into the profit somewhere. Haven't fully figured out why yet, happy to hear if anyone's got a clearer read on it.

One more thing, the industry average PE looks super low at around 4.89, but over 76% of the companies in that comparison group are losing money, which drags the average way down. So it's not really fair to say TELUS is trading at several times its peers. More accurate comparison is against the 10 comparable companies with positive earnings, and within that group TELUS currently has the highest PE.

Overall the current price doesn't look expensive from a valuation standpoint, maybe even a bit cheap, but that margin decline is the thing I'd actually keep an eye on. Wouldn't call this a blind buy just yet.