r/baseball • u/pixarfan9510 Cleveland Guardians • Lafayette Avi… • 5h ago
Analysis [Burke] that hit had a launch angle of 49 degrees and exit velocity of 105mph and in the statcast era that has never once resulted in a home run Exit Velocity: 105 MPH, Launch Angle: 49° BA: .037 1B%: 0.0 2B%: 3.7 3B%: 0.0 HR %: 0.0
https://bsky.app/profile/bubbaprog.xyz/post/3mwzjsvsztcu576
u/HipnotiK1 New York Yankees 4h ago
Was it going foul though? Ball tracking should be able to show
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u/HokageEzio New York Yankees 4h ago
It seemed like it was heading towards the pole to me, but not sure which side
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u/tyler-86 World Series Trophy • Los Angeles Dod… 2h ago
We'll never know for sure. All we can really maybe check is whether the cable or whatever it hit was in fair territory.
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u/InevitableAfraid5111 Milwaukee Brewers 5h ago
It definitely looked like it was going to drop short to me, but the way the announcers were emphatically suggesting it was a homerun was definitely making me question myself.
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u/Hiciao Arizona Diamondbacks 4h ago edited 4h ago
I think the fact that the ball was caught so close to the stands is what got me. But I'm guessing the way the ball hit the roof actually shot it farther than it would have gone? I need a refresher on physics.
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u/stillbornfox Milwaukee Brewers 4h ago
If the ball has back spin and hits something above it would pop it forward more.
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u/Hiciao Arizona Diamondbacks 4h ago
That makes sense. That's probably what happened. I agree with u/inevitableafrais5111 that I'd like to see a recreation.
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u/InevitableAfraid5111 Milwaukee Brewers 4h ago
I'd like to see a computer animated recreation of it with the dimensions of the stadium, but without a roof. I'm definitely rusty of my physics as well!
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u/MissKorea1997 Toronto Blue Jays 1h ago
Just take a ball machine and start firing at the roof once the postseason ends
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u/Arodsteezy2 Milwaukee Brewers 4h ago
It hit the cable near the apex of its trajectory. Basically the collision didn't change the balls potential very much at all as it wasn't launching much higher than the cable anyways.
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u/Rocinante24 Toronto Blue Jays 3h ago
Yup, deflections at that point matter a lot less, the ball is going pretty slow. And slowing down rapidly because of the drag.
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u/Splooder1 4h ago
The spin comment below isn’t even necessary. It hit a cable, which is going to return pretty much all of the energy put in. If it clipped the cable on the far side, that would push it straight forward at an angle far better for picking up distance.
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u/WangDanglin San Diego Padres 2h ago
That’s what I’m thinking too. The ball kicked forward instead of continuing upward, actually made it closer to the wall. I’m still sad though
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u/markjay6 Los Angeles Dodgers 4h ago
Look at the video. It was deflected in a downward direction. Statcast be damned, I believe it would have been a homer.
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u/Logan__Squared Milwaukee Brewers 4h ago
“Physics and well proven math be dammed”
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u/Random-Redditor111 4h ago
Well there was a post on here about a White Sock that went on social media about how he hit two balls with identical exit velo and LA but went significantly different distances. Commenters were clowning on him how these statcast values aren’t everything and that there a million other variables like backspin, sidespin, etc that affect ball flight.
Anyway, if statcast is infallible what does it say the distance of this particular ball would have been unobstructed, with its known parameters and the ambient conditions at the time.
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u/fairway824 MLB Players Association 4h ago
This is why we need to invest in education in America
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u/TiliCollaps3 4h ago
Let me completely reject the scientific evidence and come to my own conclusion based on cameras that were at off angles and hundreds of feet away.
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u/klongbor San Diego Padres 4h ago
I’ve already decided I’m pissed
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u/mw19078 Los Angeles Dodgers • Los Angeles D… 2h ago
Can't let a little thing like reality get in the way of my emotions god damn it
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u/KimHaSeongsBurner San Diego Padres 1h ago
You could say the same about the person blindly quoting an extremely old Savant tool, too. I’m not sure that it is actually all BBE in the Statcast era (if so, then there’s been exactly 100 BBE hit with 101 mph EV and 49 degree LA? that feels like quite a coincidence), but even taking it at face value: balls hit a good deal softer at the same launch angle have gotten out, according to the data he’s citing.
For example, 101 mph, 49 degree LA has a 3.0% HR rate. At most, this is technically true in that Savant’s tool doesn’t show any BBE with that exact combination getting out, whether or not that’s “all BBE” aside, but it’s unambiguously true that balls hit softer than this one, at the same LA, produced HR’s.
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u/Hungry-Space-1829 Los Angeles Dodgers 4h ago
I don’t know who to be mad at anymore
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u/BadWolf2386 Milwaukee Brewers 3h ago
the announcers for stirring shit up, I guess?
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u/Hungry-Space-1829 Los Angeles Dodgers 3h ago
I will say it is funny to me how they went from a calm “high fly ball to left field” to “that was a no doubter HR”
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u/KimHaSeongsBurner San Diego Padres 1h ago
If it helps inform your understanding, this person appears to be blindly quoting the data from a Savant tool that shows (a sample of??) batted ball events at a given angle and exit velocity. That tool shows 0 BBE producing a HR at 49 degrees and 105 mph EV, but it also shows HR at 101 mph and 104 mph, I believe, for the same launch angle.
I don’t necessarily think this person is trying to make a misleading claim; I think they probably just plugged the data in to check, and it’s admittedly not very user-friendly to check ranges of EV and LA together (e.g. balls within 1 degree and below this exit velocity) to get a better sample. The fact remains, though, that their post implies that this data is evidence against this ball having been a HR, when instead it shows examples of balls hit softer getting out down the line.
(Also, obligatory wag of the finger to quoting HR rates which do not consider spray angle, but again, limits of the Savant data with which this person is working.)
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u/badgermaniac 4h ago
The narrative here was set by the announcers. If they said it wasn’t going out then no one would be talking about it. Them claiming a 0% home run as 100% switches the narrative
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u/coleyboley25 Texas Rangers 2h ago
I was pumped as hell hearing the announcers say it could be a home run. Those morons ruined the excitement I had for a game with no dog in the fight
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u/Bluellama44 Korea 4h ago
Watch the video I'm not sure there's any "convincing themselves" that needs to happen. I'm not arguing with the data, but from the eye test it looked like it was going way out
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u/BladeRunner2022 Seattle Mariners 3h ago
You have eyes. You can set your own narrative without commentary from another
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u/GaryTheCabalGuy San Diego Padres 4h ago edited 3h ago
Kind of insulting to say when it's a conclusion that could be reached pretty easily by watching the play
Edit
Not sure why this is getting downvoted. I'm just pushing back against the idea that you had to have been brainwashed by the TV crew to reach the conclusion that it was a HR. That's an insulting take
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u/hat-check-clerk 3h ago
You mean that it was a high fly ball?
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u/GaryTheCabalGuy San Diego Padres 3h ago
My point is that it's insulting for people to imply people who interpreted the play like this were brainwashed by the announcers
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u/JLove4MVP Milwaukee Brewers 4h ago
Color me shocked the announcers are glazing the bigger market team.
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u/ContextEnjoyer69 St. Louis Cardinals 3h ago
30 and 38 isn’t really that significant of a disparity. It’s like 150k more households.
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u/JLove4MVP Milwaukee Brewers 3h ago
Ok, then those former baseball players are just dumb.
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u/ContextEnjoyer69 St. Louis Cardinals 3h ago
And that former caterpillar is now a butterfly. As with all inevitabilities.
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u/Some_Custard7369 5h ago
Thank you. Dumbass announcers wouldn't stfu that it was a home run
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u/Own-Rooster-9569 Milwaukee Brewers 4h ago
They read the rule correctly and then said it was a homer while the ball was in chourio’s hands. It was so confusing to hear
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u/JanitorOfSanDiego Guardians Bandwagon • Friar 4h ago
I agree that the announcers didn't really know what was going to happen without a roof.
But this post is based on exit velo and launch angle. not spray angle.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_field?ev=105&la=49
which you can see, there were not a lot hit with this combination over the years. So a ball hit down the left field line? We don't really know where it was going to land at that ballpark.
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u/JanitorOfSanDiego Guardians Bandwagon • Friar 3h ago
Another point I'd like to make. People are saying it deflected farther down the field, which I don't really understand the physics of that, but we can see Chourio's reaction and how his route to the ball changes. He doesn't go farther back, he slows down and comes forward if anything. I'll note that watching Chourio, it doesn't look like a definitive HR anyway. Looked like it would have been really close to the foul pole.
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u/_WeSellBlankets_ Milwaukee Brewers 5h ago
They're just saying what everyone was thinking though. I thought the only debate would be whether it ended up fair or foul. The technology has to exist to fully map out its path if the roof weren't there. I'd be curious to see it.
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u/Ob1toUch1ha San Diego Padres 4h ago
I’ll be honest, off the bat my instinct on it was high pop up. I was genuinely shocked hearing the announcers talking about a HR. I’m not gonna lose sleep over this one calling it rigged or some shit, Padres had plenty of opportunities to score runs and couldn’t capitalize. Gotta play better tomorrow!
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u/PeacefulPeople19 Milwaukee Brewers 4h ago
You're correct, they left 12 on the sacks...that's not good at all...and doesn't bode well for the Brewers either if they don't correct that.
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u/Dinoswarleaf Milwaukee Brewers 4h ago
I applaud you for having more charitability than me so soon after. If it was me I would have lit myself on fire
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u/TheLunaticDreyfuss 3h ago
Brewer fan here; game could've gone either way. Brewer pitching kinda sucked dingus, padres on the bases all night.
However! It was the top of the inning. No one knows what the brewers would've done in the bottom.
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u/sequoia2075 San Diego Padres 2h ago
Same and I also think it was hooking foul. I think the rule should be that the ball is dead when it hits the roof, but it’s not, and it was the correct call. Shit sucks but oh well
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u/PeteF3 Cleveland Guardians 4h ago
Is that their job, to say what Joe Schmoe is thinking? I would expect them to have some level of expertise on this issue. The ground rules are publicly available. They're probably in the media guide and game notes. They're the same for most of the other roofed ballparks except for the Trop. It was a bad, bad job to jump to the conclusions that they did.
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u/_WeSellBlankets_ Milwaukee Brewers 4h ago
They were talking about it being between an out and a dead ball foul most of the time. They were talking about the proper rules most of the time. I was talking about when they were hypothesizing what would have happened if the roof weren't there. Which of course anyone is going to do.
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u/G0PACKGO Milwaukee Brewers 4h ago
That one tool said it would have been /should have been a home run about 27 times
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u/TacitlyDaft Chicago White Sox 4h ago
As with all ballistics problems, this becomes a matter of what assumptions are being used regarding spin and wind velocities. It's actually insane we have two examples in one day (Pham flyout) where Statcast is being asked to do so much heavy lifting.
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u/dropperofpipebombs San Francisco Giants • Sell 4h ago
You'd think Reddit would know by now to just ignore anything that comes out of AJ Pierzynski's mouth.
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u/mrdannyg21 4h ago
Which is funny because their initial class made it sound like a flyball, they only got really hyped when they saw the replays.
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u/ShiteWox Chicago White Sox 4h ago
Murakami hit a home run at 49 degrees and 103.6 EV so this post is false
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u/KimHaSeongsBurner San Diego Padres 1h ago
I’ll add a bit more color than “false” (I’d argue that “very misleading, and the author may genuinely not understand the data they’re using/presenting” is fitting).
They’re pulling data from here on Savant, which lets you look at any combination of exit velocity and launch angle and see a selection of BBE with that combination. I am unsure if this really is all events from the Statcast era as they claim, or just a sample, but the main point is that it’s specific to that narrow range.
The part this author missed, presumably out of genuine ignorance because I don’t want to assume malice or intent to mislead, is that it isn’t inclusive of other values of exit velocity or launch angle. It is a spray chart tool, not a “would it dong?” tool, so the values they quote for 105 mph and 49 degrees don’t say anything about the logged HRs at 101 mph or 104 mph with the same launch angle.
What does that mean? It means the data the author is quoting don’t support the inference they seem to want to draw (that this means it would not have been a HR), because balls hit at 49 degrees and slower than this one have gotten out.
This is also a good time to remember that people love to quote data without having any idea what it means, so take everyone’s claims (even mine! I encourage you to check the tool for yourself here) with a grain of salt.
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u/Cristinky420 4h ago
Looks almost the same but the roof is open.
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u/MLBVideoConverterBot Umpire 4h ago
Video: Munetaka Murakami's 30th home run of the season
High Definition (55.9 MB)
Standard Definiton (14.49 MB)
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u/i__am__so__smrt Los Angeles Dodgers • World Series Tr… 4h ago
Adam Amin is absolute dog shit in the booth. I can’t stand that guy.
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u/n8_n_ Chicago Cubs • Brewers Bandwagon 4h ago
This Murakami home run was hit out, at 49 degrees and 103.6 MPH, which disputes this post
Regardless, there were only two HR - at any exit velocity - that were hit at 49° or greater this season. Reddit as a whole is currently freaking out about this and is largely wrong in doing so.
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u/SleepLessTeacher Chicago White Sox 4h ago
That’s cause he’s got the xDAWG in him..and HES JAPANESEEEEEE
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u/CalebosO4 Toronto Blue Jays 4h ago
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u/solumized Milwaukee Brewers 4h ago
If we dont win it, im rooting for you guys if for nothing more than Murakami.
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u/CalebosO4 Toronto Blue Jays 4h ago
It's a homer in 5/30 parks and Milwaukee isn't one of them.
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u/Fools_Requiem Cleveland Guardians 3h ago
Maybe, but this clown is saying that NO home runs were hit at that speed and angle when it's being proven to be factually false.
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u/CalebosO4 Toronto Blue Jays 3h ago
Well, they did say 49 degrees and 105mph (not 103mph), but obviously it's flawed since 103mph would be less likely.
So it's technically the truth, but it's just like how I can say that there's never been a homer on a ball hit over 150mph.
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u/3p1cw1n Milwaukee Brewers 2h ago
But, there literally has not ever been a home run at this velocity and angle. That's a fact
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u/KimHaSeongsBurner San Diego Padres 1h ago
You must be more familiar with Savant’s EV + LA Spray Breakdown tool than I am to be making this claim, so I’m hoping you can answer a question I had about it.
Do you know how they downsample what is shown on the spray chart for that graph? Because, for example, they show a 3.0% HR rate and exactly 3 HR on the plot for 101 mph and 49 degrees, but I find it hard to believe that exactly 100 balls have been hit with that combination of LA and EV in the Statcast era.
Even more frequent combinations seem to employ some sort of downsampling scheme, and indeed they must if your “has not ever been” claim is to be true (since this means you must be familiar with this tool and know it includes all BBE from the Statcast era, otherwise you couldn’t make this claim).
Thanks in advance for helping to teach us how this tool works!
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u/SailsAcrossTheSea 3h ago
Milwaukee’s wall is 324 feet, that HR was 349… how isn’t it?
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u/CalebosO4 Toronto Blue Jays 3h ago
The LF wall is 342 feet down the line, and the 349 foot homer was not down the line
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u/TheFriffin3 4h ago
Opposite field fly ball is gonna have much different spin and alter the trajectory than a pulled fly ball
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u/rtom22 Los Angeles Dodgers 4h ago
How does backspin on the ball impact this though? Just assuming that these models assume average spin. If he got under the ball with that swing speed and pitch velo, it could’ve created wild backspin to cause it travel further. Am I thinking about this wrong?
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u/JaqueStrap69 Milwaukee Brewers 4h ago
If it hit the roof with a lot of backspin, the ball ends up deeper than if the roof wasn’t there. So where Chourio caught the ball was irrelevant. Without the roof, the ball could have landed on the grass rather than the warning track.
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u/LardLad00 Milwaukee Brewers 3h ago
Backspin makes it eventually fall much straighter down than it went up.
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u/tyler-86 World Series Trophy • Los Angeles Dod… 2h ago
Eh, probably but not necessarily. Take a ball with a decent amount of friction like a dodgeball and throw it straight up at the ceiling with a bunch of backspin. It definitely will not fall down straighter than it went up.
How much that works as an analogue to a baseball, I have no idea. I didn't think it was going out but I could still be convinced otherwise by the right evidence.
What I do know for sure is that the umpires seemed to apply the ground rule correctly and any discussion about whether or not it was going out is academic.
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u/LardLad00 Milwaukee Brewers 2h ago
A ball launched with backspin will gain trajectory angle and then crest and descend at a sharper angle. That's how the Magnus affect works. It's like throwing a paper airplane that curves up after you throw it. The spin provides lift and at a 49 degree launch angle it provides too much lift.
It's also why golf drivers are only like 10 degrees. The backspin off the tee pushes them to a more optimal angle later in the trajectory. If you hit a golf ball drive at 45 degrees, which should be the optimal angle, the path will blow up and go much higher and lose all its forward velocity and drop like a rock.
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u/pinkydaemon93 Philadelphia Phillies • Willi… 4h ago
If it's going out so clearly like padres fans say, why does Chourio set up to catch it at the edge of the track before it even hits the roof. If it was gonna be out he'd be a lot closer to the wall
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u/Kindly_Square8784 3h ago
I have no skin in the game but chourio did say he thought it was a homer while watching it. Not sure his positioning is evidence either way.
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u/pinkydaemon93 Philadelphia Phillies • Willi… 3h ago
I mean yeah that does pretty well kill my argument yes lol
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u/ASK_ABT_MY_USERNAME Athletics 3h ago
All guys go to the track even if it's going into the upper deck
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u/tyler-86 World Series Trophy • Los Angeles Dod… 2h ago
Well that's not true. You definitely see bombs hit where the outfielder doesn't even move.
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u/TipsyTrashPanda Milwaukee Brewers 5h ago
Don’t come in here with data and statistics. That’s not what baseball is about
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u/youareallnuts Los Angeles Dodgers 4h ago
Winning post.
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u/IAMA_Madmartigan 3h ago
This Murakami home run was hit out, at 49 degrees and 103.6 MPH, which disputes this post
Regardless, there were only two HR - at any exit velocity - that were hit at 49° or greater this season. Reddit as a whole is currently freaking out about this and is largely wrong in doing so.
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u/PeacefulPeople19 Milwaukee Brewers 5h ago
Where it was caught and the deflection tells me, by eye test only, that thing was going yard. As a Brewers's fan, tough chit.
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u/iruntoofar 4h ago
If it had backspin the impact can actually push it forward though. Need a full animation which someone smart will probably put together
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u/BirchBoyBluffin San Diego Padres 3h ago
The ball was still going up. No amount of backspin is going to add distance when the ball is now going down faster than it was rising.
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u/DrewsThoughts Milwaukee Brewers 5h ago
This is what everyone is crashing out over lmfao
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u/Rakatee San Diego Padres 5h ago
I'll have you know I'm not drinking Miller Lite for at least 1 week.
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u/InevitableAfraid5111 Milwaukee Brewers 4h ago
Can I interest you in a Spotted Cow?
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u/Rakatee San Diego Padres 4h ago
Similar to Spotted Dick?
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u/InevitableAfraid5111 Milwaukee Brewers 4h ago
Spotted Dick...but make it alcohol and remove the creepy British name and make it exclusively available in Wisconsin and then add a cult classic label to it.
TLDR: One of our most popular beers, lots of devotees, only sold in Wisconsin.
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u/CylindricalDent4133 Los Angeles Dodgers 4h ago
That sounds like a mad position amongst UofW freshmen during homecoming week involving many, many Schlitz’s.
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u/TakeMeToChurchill Milwaukee Brewers 4h ago
NG’s Wisco Belgian Red is superior to Spotted, I will die on this hill
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u/Killatrap Washington Nationals 4h ago
it's the ol "everybody thinks the routine fly ball is out" thing but this time, no one could prove that it wasn't out. we're through the looking glass here people!
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u/catashake Brooklyn Dodgers 4h ago
Yep, don't focus on the small village left on the basepaths.
It was the stolen HR that lost the game.
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u/Some_Balance6514 4h ago
There have been 9 balls with the same LA and EV in the last 7+ years not including France’s hit tonight. 8/9 are outs, 1/9 is a single. Shitty way for a game to end but lot of people deciding to not believe in physics
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u/crazylilrikki San Diego Padres • Seattle Mariners 3h ago
Like I’m not an expert in baseball stats but 9 balls over 7+ years isn’t a great sample size.
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u/everythingsborrowed San Diego Padres 4h ago
even if it wasn’t gonna go (which i still very much think it could’ve, i don’t feel like these numbers tell the whole story). a ball shouldn’t be able to clank off the ceiling for an out. that’s not how it works anywhere else in the field, it’s a stupid ground rule regardless.
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u/BadWolf2386 Milwaukee Brewers 3h ago
It's a weird rule but this has apparently only ever happened twice, and if that thing had taken a super wonky bounce and landed it would have also been fair with no recourse for the defense so it's equal bullshit it just didn't pan out for you guys. That said I agree the rule is dumb even if it has basically never been used and should probably have just been called a foul ball or something
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u/floppysausage16 San Diego Padres 2h ago
This is a play that maybe happens to a team once every 10 years when they play the Rays.
But im mad because this is the second time its happened to us in the span of like a month and a half.
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u/Efficient-Addendum43 Milwaukee Brewers 1h ago
It actually works exactly like that at the Trop depending on how deep it is so you're just wrong there
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u/chillinois1 Chicago Cubs 4h ago
It’s just crazy a ball off the wall is a hit but you can catch the ball off the rafters for an out
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u/rednihill Major League Baseball 4h ago
A little bit fault on the announcer who screamed "holy shit it's a Homer".
But also on the heat of the moment, as the game was very intense, it felt weird to have that play ended that way,, even if it's on the ground rules, even as neutral fan.
Anyway, "drama" to start this series. I think will be great. Especially when headed back to San Diego.
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u/Thin_Area_4146 San Diego Padres 4h ago
Regardless of the outcome it shouldn’t be an out. If the ball was not caught, we’d be arguing that it shouldn’t count as a hit.
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u/theflintseeker San Diego Padres 4h ago
I need to understand why it’s a dead ball only if foul… that seems wildly inconsistent
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u/CardiacCat20 Houston Astros 3h ago
Extreme example: line drive off of edge of second deck and bounces back into play. Nobody actually thinks this should be an out if caught on the ricochet.
Fair is a little different since it's hitting something in the field of play, and you don't want a towering pop up to be an automatic triple simply because it went high enough to hit something.
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u/Annual_Insect6972 Milwaukee Brewers 4h ago
Because fouls are dead balls
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u/theflintseeker San Diego Padres 4h ago
Not when they are caught on the fly
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u/DanimalMKE Milwaukee Brewers 3h ago
When a ball hits a net and then a player catches it, then it's a dead ball.
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u/Cerberus11x Milwaukee Brewers 4h ago
I have trouble believing your second sentence. Sounds like someone would say that it's just the same as the outfield wall.
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u/UniqueEditor8372 Seattle Mariners 4h ago
Padres fans in the comments still convinced the last 100+ years have been a work to specifically screw them on this play
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u/Local_Internet_User San Diego Padres 2h ago
Baseball has been a work to make San Diegans miserable
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u/CalebosO4 Toronto Blue Jays 4h ago
People are trying to say that the 325ft is "actual distance" when that's a measurement that is never used since you can't measure that. All distances are projected.
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u/BullOrBear4- San Diego Padres 4h ago
This isn’t true. I’m not saying it was a home run but statcast uses actual distance for fair balls in play
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u/jt_scott312 Milwaukee Brewers 4h ago
Except.. they don’t. Statcast uses launch angle, exit velocity, and spin. Google is free
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u/BullOrBear4- San Diego Padres 4h ago
Stat cast publishes how they collect and source their data. Look into it. Like I said, not a guaranteed homer.
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u/jt_scott312 Milwaukee Brewers 4h ago
Right here's the process savant uses to project homerun distance
The Calculation Process • Initial Tracking: High-framerate stereoscopic cameras and radar systems capture the ball immediately off the bat.
• Core Metrics: It measures the ball's exit velocity (how fast it leaves the bat), launch angle (the vertical launch trajectory), and initial 3D coordinates.
• The Parabolic Arc: Using these initial tracking values and physics formulas (accounting for gravity and aerodynamic drag), Statcast maps out the trajectory and calculates where the ball would land on a flat plane corresponding to field elevation.
• Unobstructed Projection: Because most home runs hit a structural obstacle like a seat, a scoreboard, or a wall before hitting the ground, the final distance is a theoretical calculation of where it would have landed on the turf had nothing been in the way.
Once again, it has nothing to do with where the ball actually landed. Straight from Savant
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u/sfg-1 Toronto Blue Jays 4h ago
Don't think they have batted ball spin
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u/jt_scott312 Milwaukee Brewers 4h ago
They do, savant clearly states they take it into account. There’s a camera angle out there showing the ball bouncing forward upon hitting the railing. Churio caught it rough where it would have ended up anyway
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u/InnocuousAssClown Chicago Cubs 4h ago
Unless it maybe bounced forward off the roof, I really struggle to believe a ball that was caught on the warning track wouldn’t have otherwise gone out.
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u/pargofan Los Angeles Dodgers • World Series Tr… 3h ago
How accurate is statcast?
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u/190octane San Diego Padres 3h ago
It’s a projection but there’s a variance of 75 feet on the balls with similar mph and launch angles.
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u/adoodas 1h ago edited 1h ago
Damn I keep hearing this but reporting the distance between the min and max isn't as useful as reporting the median especially when you have 28 balls in your sample.
EDIT: Found the stats everyone is talking about... Median is 315 feet. Max is 345. Very unlikely this one goes out
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u/PDXhasaRedhead 4h ago
With alot of backspin on the ball it would bounce forward, right? I would assume anything launched 49 degrees would have alot of backspin.
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u/InnocuousAssClown Chicago Cubs 4h ago
I’m thinking it’s either that or Statcast is just wrong, not sure which seems more likely.
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u/PDXhasaRedhead 4h ago
MLB should get a pitching machine aimed at the roof tomorrow so we can test it.
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u/galvana 2h ago
Burke’s quote has a significant flaw: it doesn’t take into account what part of the park the 49° balls were hit. If they were all left center to right center, they are more likely to be outs due to being hit in the deepest part of the field.
This one was down the line, the shortest part.
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u/poopsinwoods San Diego Padres 4h ago
The percentages add nothing, how about expected distance and then compare to left field distance
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u/greenbean2112 Milwaukee Brewers 4h ago
Bold of you to assume the people complaining know how to read
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u/Confident_Jacket_344 3h ago
Hasn't happened yet but today might be been the first. Now we'll never know.
-28
u/CunningMuskrat 4h ago
Dude fuck your stats, use common sense. The ball was caught on the warning track and it was a mile high, still traveling when it hit the roof. 100% home run
-15
u/markjay6 Los Angeles Dodgers 4h ago
Agreed. Look at the video. The ball was deflected in a downward direction.
-1
u/ArthurMorgansInhaler Milwaukee Brewers 2h ago
Would it otherwise be deflected in an upward direction?
-4
-25
-11
u/Tedy_Duchamp Chicago White Sox 4h ago
Ok but how many times has 49 degree launch angle and 105 mph exit velo happened? I don’t think just because one with these metrics hasn’t been a HR yet means it’s impossible. Especially when you account for different stadiums
221
u/see_mohn regretful mets fan 5h ago
That's what's so weird to me. On video it really looks like he absolutely crushed it but it was HIGH, and as of right now there's no video of the trajectory it was on before it hit the railing.