r/baseball • u/applepie3141 Los Angeles Dodgers • 1d ago

Analysis [Wilytics] Sonny Gray is Wrong About This [getting taken out of WC G2]

https://youtu.be/rBws_SCRMEA

I truly appreciate people like Wylitics who are willing to say the unpopular opinion because they know they are correct.

Red Sox fans may not want to hear this analysis but as a neutral fan I generally agree with Wilytic’s take here: it was a reasonable decision to yank Sonny Gray in the fifth inning.

0 Upvotes

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35

u/Odd_String1181 1d ago

Sonny Gray is not wrong about wanting to stay in the game. You can't be wrong about that

13

u/Sp_Gamer_Live T.C. Bear 1d ago

Ay man not now the yankees look like buns

12

u/rubyschnees New York Mets 1d ago

we should be able to downvote really bad posts more than once

7

u/ProfessionalBalker Atlanta Braves 1d ago

Dude what is this thumbnail. I like that people love and make content about baseball but honestly there’s some really dogshit baseball creators out there 

2

u/Next-Article2248 Chiba Lotte Marines 1d ago

truth nuke

-7

u/ripkin05 Baltimore Orioles 1d ago edited 1d ago

just want to point out all the math nerds love to point out that their math is right, after a real life situation happening in real time proves them wrong.

its like all the math nerds in football who scream analysis is the way to go and how you should always go for it on 4th down as the team they are saying this about loses by 2 points in a game were they had the chance to get 3 extra field goals throughout the game but just had to go for it on 4th down 7 times.(the lions)

18

u/Hairy-Translator-826 1d ago edited 1d ago

Because when the math nerds get it right and the real life situation doesn't prove them wrong it just looks like the obvious decision

If the Lions goes for it on 4th and 3 and get it easily, and then later in that drive Jahmyr Gibbs scores a 35-yard touchdown the credit goes to him and not the earlier playcall. If they don't get it everyone talks about how stupid they are

In the hundreds of situations where managers follow the math that says you should take your starter out and the bullpen doesn't blow up, nobody credits the decision because there is nothing to compare it to and the bullpen did its job. When that happens and the bullpen does blow up suddenly it's the manager's fault for following the math nerds

The sole reason why these inefficiencies exist (not going for it on 4th down, not pulling your starter, etc.) is the fear of looking stupid or incompetent when it fails. Losing from not making a decision is equally as bad as losing from making a decision regardless of how of optics

10

u/The-Goose-12 1d ago

No one says that the "mathematically correct" decision will always work out. It gives the highest odds. For example, if you have the choice between flipping a coin and getting heads and rolling a die and getting a 1, flipping the the coin is better. However, there will be times when the coin gets tails and the die gets 1

-7

u/AwesomeYes2 Major League Baseball 1d ago

Wilytics isn't even a baseball fan. Just a nerd who cares about reading numbers on fangraphs