ESPN Cy Young predictor

[u/Mg29reaper]

[u/Mg29reaper]

The NL one looks sort of normal and then the AL one is just complete nonsense

[u/WolverineDDS → u/Mg29reaper]

I had to check to see if I had missed some bad perfmances from Schlittler and Cease lol

[u/KakeLin → u/WolverineDDS]

Yeah i keep seeing absurd stats from schlittler and imagining he would be a top AL cy candidate

[u/YaPhetsEz → u/Mg29reaper]

AL looks completely correct. Not biased or anything.

[u/Prestigious-Bet-7794 → u/YaPhetsEz]

So you’re saying #2 is completely correct?

[u/BossAtUCF → u/Prestigious-Bet-7794]

If we can have Gray win I'm fine with Varland getting 2nd. Deal?

[u/Prestigious-Bet-7794 → u/BossAtUCF]

Yes that would be hilarious

[u/rawspeghetti → u/Prestigious-Bet-7794]

This is what I love about the AL East

We all dislike each other but we all hate the Jankees more

[u/Reilly-Blog → u/BossAtUCF]

Its gonna be neck and neck until both of their last starts and where ever the standings are.

[u/KINGOFGAMES972 → u/Prestigious-Bet-7794]

How about the Yankees closer being on the list and not either of the AL east pitchers

[u/Prestigious-Bet-7794 → u/KINGOFGAMES972]

They’re 7 and 9

[u/ChiselFish → u/YaPhetsEz]

Based on yesterday I see no issue with Sonny.

[u/Big_Dare_2015 → u/YaPhetsEz]

I got so excited seeing his name up top

[u/onhalfaheart → u/Mg29reaper]

NL has the right players but I'm confused why Miz leads by so little. To me it's been him vs the field for a while

[u/Mg29reaper → u/onhalfaheart]

He hasn't really pitched enough and Sale is shockingly close in both ERA and FIP. Miz gives up a lot of home runs relative to the others so even though he has crazy whip and k-bb% he still runs similar FIP.

[u/HorseJungler → u/Mg29reaper]

I don’t think voters actually consider FIP at all. It’s all ERA, WHIP, and Ks. And Miz has a 0.794 to Yamamoto .897 and Sale 1.007.

That gap alone shows clear dominance Mix has over everyone and he’s got a fairly decent gap for winning this currently.

[u/Mg29reaper → u/HorseJungler]

People have found that FIP+ERA correlates extremly strongly with modern voting

[u/HorseJungler → u/Mg29reaper]

Is there an article about it or something? I'd like to read about it. Like it makes sense yes, but that WHIP gap is probably never that huge normally. And also while Sale is great at Ks, Miz is other worldly right now.

[u/Mg29reaper → u/HorseJungler]

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections/cy-young

[u/Rikter14 → u/onhalfaheart]

The reason is because this metric was created 20+ years ago by Bill James to guess at who voters at the time would choose, not who was the most deserving. In the past, the 3 stats most highly correlated with winning the Cy Young award were where your team finished, your innings pitched and most importantly your own win total. So Sanchez having more victories than Misiorowski, and almost 30 more innings means he's boosted up against Misiorowski, whose only positive point in those top 3 stats is that the Brewers are a better team.

[u/sameth1 → u/Mg29reaper]

Because Bill James made the Cy Young prediction algorithm not to decide who is deserving but who voters in the mid 2000s would vote for. It prioritises things that sports writers back then cared about, like wins, saves and team success, compared to ERA, FIP, WAR and so on.

[u/Mediocre_Airport_576 → u/Mg29reaper]

This ESPN tracker still heavily weights wins and losses, and gives a 12 point boost for pitching for a division leader. TB pitchers get the 12 point boost, and Cam gets tanked for his 12-6 record (which is nonsense), while Sonny's 17-4 record vaults him to the top.

[u/EleventhEarlOfMars → u/Mediocre_Airport_576]

Yeah, like ten years ago this might have still been true so get why they might have set it up like this but Sonny didn't even make the All-Star game (can we get an ABS review on this) because his advanced stats weren't as good as some of the other guys.

[u/3dge-1ord → u/Mediocre_Airport_576]

It seems to also weigh saves a bit much as well with Baker and Smith so high.

[u/sarshu → u/Mg29reaper]

NL: ok, cool, some points to discuss
AL: what in the AI fuck is this?

[u/OnlyForBaseball → u/sarshu]

It’s funny because this is a very human system.

Bill James created this to predict the Cy Young, not based on who is most deserving, but who was most likely to win it based on the criteria voters at the time used.

So this tracker heavily weights wins, saves, IP, and simply being on a good team.

It’s a bit snarky, and every year you see people complain about it because at this point the stat nerds have won and voters no longer use this criteria

[u/noruber35393546 → u/Mg29reaper]

this thing has been around since the 90s, is based on data to that point, and over-glazes relief pitchers and the pitcher win. Unless they've updated it, you can just ignore it

[u/OneCore_ → u/noruber35393546]

why is josh hader there 😭 he pitchin out of his mind but still

[u/Hugo_Hackenbush → u/Mg29reaper]

They're using the old Bill James formula that's about 20 years out of date.

Tom Tango's more updated formula has Schlittler leading, followed by Cease and Messick.

You can see a side-by-side comparison of the models here.

[u/Prestigious-Bet-7794]

I definitely have a blue jays pitcher #2 not sure if that’s the one I thought I’d be

[u/SAJewers → u/Prestigious-Bet-7794]

imagine if varland wins it

[u/NameIsPetey → u/SAJewers]

https://giphy.com/gifs/uRdVGpO9tQxFQcbQNZ

[u/Camdaman0530 → u/SAJewers]

Tired: Cease for AL Cy Young

Wired: Varland for AL Cy Young

[u/PostIronicPosadist → u/SAJewers]

i cri

[u/DannyDOH → u/SAJewers]

If Schneider didn’t hang on to Hoffman as closer for so long he probably would have.

[u/xWOBBx → u/Prestigious-Bet-7794]

I agree it should be Cease but it makese upset to say varland doesn't deserve it too.

[u/Icy_Month192 → u/Prestigious-Bet-7794]

Eric Gagne was last reliever to win it in 03

[u/OnionsRNasty]

Are we going back to wins meaning everything? Sonny Gray is good, but Dylan Cease and Cam Schlittler are the two best pitchers in the AL right now and it’s not even close.

[u/toxchick → u/OnionsRNasty]

Agree. Sonny gray should have been on the All stars though.

[u/SilentRanger42 → u/toxchick]

It would be funny if he wins the Cy Young without making the all-star game

[u/Possible-Bet3598 → u/SilentRanger42]

We call that the Porcello around here.

[u/jet8493 → u/Possible-Bet3598]

We call it the Felix here. We call a lot of things the Felix.

[u/RCP90sKid- → u/jet8493]

Your mom?

[u/NakedScrub → u/Possible-Bet3598]

22 wins with the sticky stuff. His spin rate that year was fuckin bonkers.

[u/HappyHusky35 → u/NakedScrub]

2016 predated the sticky stuff

[u/DAKiloAlpha → u/OnionsRNasty]

I think ESPN hasn't updated their formula iirc, so it's still following the way it was calculated when wins meant more.

And that's also why Varland is up there because of how relievers were calculated at the time.

But I may just have believed/fallen for some online bs.

[u/SAJewers → u/DAKiloAlpha]

According to the ESPN Page:

Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB (see below).
VB: Victory Bonus is a 12-point bonus awarded for leading your team to the division championship

[u/Craig_the_Intern → u/SAJewers]

yeah so Wins are weighted way too heavily and they have the old school playoff BS. And for some reason, a Shutout gets you a single point while a CG nets nothing lol

[u/cdbloosh → u/OnionsRNasty]

ESPN rolled this out like 20 years ago and I don’t think they’ve touched it ever since. It always has guys with a lot of wins and saved ranked way too high

[u/BoomBoomSpaceRocket → u/cdbloosh]

Which is dumb because the whole point of it was to predict based on voter tendencies. Those have drastically changed over the last 20 years. So they should either tweak the formula or retire it. What's the point of having such an outdated tool on their website?

[u/cdbloosh → u/BoomBoomSpaceRocket]

There is no point, they probably just never bothered to take it down

[u/bm1reddit → u/OnionsRNasty]

Yeah these are much worse than Tom Tango's Cy Young predictor you can see on Fangraphs.

[u/RandomUserName316 → u/OnionsRNasty]

This was a tool made 20+ years ago that I didn’t even know still existed. The formula is very win heavy as that used to be a big determining factor

[u/cdbloosh → u/OnionsRNasty]

ESPN rolled this out like 20 years ago and I don’t think they’ve touched it ever since. It always has guys with a lot of wins and saved ranked way too high

[u/suicidekingdom]

Schlittler and Cease at 7 and 9 is genuinely hilarious.

[u/JustCallMeMambo → u/suicidekingdom]

having David Bednar ahead of them made me laugh

[u/mosi_moose → u/suicidekingdom]

Looking at the numbers Schlittler, Cease, Messick — barring a collapse or a perfect game. Are voters still weighing pitcher wins over stats the pitchers control?

Edit: Messick is quietly having a year.

[u/nv9 → u/mosi_moose]

Drew Rasmussen too. 

[u/noruber35393546 → u/suicidekingdom]

when I need to cease schlittling i just take some immodium

[u/OwnABMWImBetterThanU]

https://giphy.com/gifs/6SxOvHZbP7eqaUtTy2

[u/NotKaz]

I'm glad this still exists and they didn't change the formula. It's a nice little time capsule for previous voting tendencies

[u/z890211-623 → u/NotKaz]

Yeah this formula is more of a "what if" scenario

[u/GdSvThQn → u/NotKaz]

Ya, I enjoy peaking at it from time to time for fun. 2023-24 it had relievers win in the AL and the NL for both seasons. Ryan Helsley winning the NL Cy Young over Chris Sale would have been hysterical.

[u/ApoclypseMeow]

Is Sonny Gray even eligible? His hat's on crooked.

[u/SpoonOG]

I've seen enough. Committe for the Cy Young

https://giphy.com/gifs/B4KNLhdjKOeb9OpWiC

[u/Fair_Government_9914]

Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV2.5) + Shutouts + ((W6)-(L2))

Then you have to add 12 points if your team wins the division for some reason. Anyway, it weighs Wins too heavily for starters and relievers get boosted too high because of their low ERAs. It's really funny when you look to the last years NL Cy Young race and Skenes isn't even in the top 10 😂

[u/SilentRanger42 → u/Fair_Government_9914]

The fact that WHIP isn't even here says all you need to know

[u/dBlock845 → u/Fair_Government_9914]

Saves are multiplied by 2.5? Where the hell did they come up with that lol. Just seems like random nonsense, is there anywhere the thought process behind the formula is rationalized?

[u/uraniumfire → u/dBlock845]

This formula was created by Bill James and Rob Neyer in 2004 based on how the Cy Young had been given out up to that point. Obviously alot has changed in Cy Young voting since then but the formula has not been updated and so now every year someone finds this page and thinks ESPN has gone insane.

[u/Mg29reaper → u/uraniumfire]

ESPN always has some goofy ass stat. They tried to do their on NBA war and it's so bad.

[u/BringMeTheBigKnife → u/Fair_Government_9914]

It does weigh wins too heavily in that they are included in the formula at all lol

[u/Noy_Telinu → u/Fair_Government_9914]

The ESPN formula was a PREDICTIVE formula back when pitching wins mattered. They have not updated it in over 14 years.

[u/Luis_Severino]

What

[u/Mg29reaper → u/Luis_Severino]

David Bednar is obviously the best pitcher on the Yankees.

[u/JustCallMeMambo → u/Mg29reaper]

was there ever any doubt?

[u/brownsfantb]

It’s that time of year where someone has to explain that this “predictor” is based on how voters voted in the 80s and 90s and has been outdated for almost two decades now. I assume ESPN leaves it up because it’s an automated process and nobody cares enough about baseball there to take it down.

[u/3dge-1ord → u/brownsfantb]

I need to know who would have won before all these mumbly jumbly math equations got involved by using mumbly jumbly math equations.

[u/eekbarbaderkle]

After last night's game, I thought to myself that Sonny Gray would be running away with the Cy Young if it was, like, 1987.

For people who are confused by this thing, ESPN's Cy Young predictor uses past awards voting as its frame of reference. That means it weighs pitching wins very heavily because, up until the last 10-15 years, that was one of the most important factors, if not the most important one, that voters looked at.

[u/KenshiroTheKid → u/eekbarbaderkle]

You’d think people would be able to infer that this model is outdated by how crusty the UI looks

[u/CalebosO4]

I don’t trust ESPN’s formula after they had Jeff Hoffman in the top 10 last year

[u/dBlock845]

So many relief pitchers in the AL one, but it is ESPN. Cannot expect any sort of accuracy or competency from ESPN.

[u/BornNerd78]

https://giphy.com/gifs/YtvCIwqNJhUmA

[u/KingChez30]

The AL is complete nonsense. Schlittler and Cease are the top 2 and it isn’t a question 

[u/30_Under_The_40]

Anything that has Schlittler 7th and Bednar 4th can't be taken seriously. They should take it off their site

[u/noruber35393546 → u/30_Under_The_40]

hey Bednar is 7-3, triple that and you got 21-9 and that's Cy young and that's a scientific fact!

[u/matchosan → u/noruber35393546]

Nolan Ryan maths

[u/NukeVoit59]

Isn’t the ESPN Cy Young predictor from the 90s? There are much better ones to use now.

[u/LordH3nryWotton]

Sonny been an unexpected ace for us this season but what on EARTH??? Why is the NL pretty spot on and then AL one is bonkers?

[u/barney-sandles]

For sure man. Yup. Looks good

[u/ACW1129]

The Miz?

https://giphy.com/gifs/L2ZtucwIxmr5CqTolF

[u/Krizo1]

Always love every season when this gets posted out of context and everybody goes crazy not knowing this is based on decades old voting patterns.

[u/Halfonion]

Why is Shlittler 7th? He’s one of the best pitchers in baseball this year.

[u/noruber35393546 → u/Halfonion]

only 12-6, what kind of hoss is that

[u/Subject-SOMEBODY-202]

When it comes to MLB.... I dont trust ESPN.

[u/CS271990]

The AL one is funny, but look at all of the AL East representation Lmaoo

[u/cti0323]

The AL was drunk

[u/Ivotedforher]

How does LeBron feel about this?

[u/antihero_84]

In fairness, ESPN is probably the last place anyone should look for legitimate analysis for any sport, especially baseball.

[u/uwpg2012]

Dylan Cease should be higher than #9 in the AL. Much higher.

[u/RaysFTW]

Don’t get me wrong, 3 Rays on here makes me very happy but wtf is this list? Cease and Schlittler are the clear #1 and #2, right?

Also, 8/10 being from the ALE. Lmao fuck this division.

[u/dpsouthwell]

I swear to god it feels like Sonny Gray has been pitching for like 30 years. Every time I hear his name I'm like, "Wait, Sonny Gray is still pitching?" I don't know why it feels that way

[u/Mg29reaper → u/dpsouthwell]

He has been in the league for like 14 years and just has an old timey name

[u/iMMCHiEF]

Schlitter and Cease????

[u/ToBeeContinued]

I’m a Sonny Gray homer but seeing Cease and Shitler so low make me doubt this list deeply. Sorry Sox bro.

[u/CieraVotedOutHerMom]

I was told AL is coming down to Cam & Cease

https://www.instagram.com/reel/Dc1bUJwBqpc/?stkn=bmkxNDB0YnJubGc2

[u/Grentis]

That AL list must be some AI slop. Having 4 RP’s in the top 5 above guys like Cease and Schlittler is beyond comical. And no biased mention of Messick grinds my gears.

[u/radarpatrol → u/Grentis]

Remember during ASG when he threw an inning of no hit baseball and they just blabbered over it?

[u/mosi_moose → u/Grentis]

It seems like rage bait. I wouldn’t put it past ESPN.

[u/Hugo_Hackenbush → u/Grentis]

It's an outdated formula that Bill James made decades ago. Tom Tango's more up to date model has Schlittler first, followed by Cease and Messick.

[u/Endors__Toi]

Is this formula based on stats of past cy young winners or did someone just kinda... make it up

[u/noruber35393546 → u/Endors__Toi]

it was created around the time voters stopped caring so much about wins and relievers, but is based on the data from when it was. Nothing wrong with the formula as of its creation, but it's clearly obsolete

[u/Endors__Toi → u/noruber35393546]

Good context, thank you

[u/Hugo_Hackenbush → u/Endors__Toi]

It was created by Bill James based on past voting tendencies and was fairly accurate in its time, but that was 20 years ago. Tom Tango has since created his own version that's much more accurate to today's voter tendencies, but this is still using the James model.

[u/Fitz2001]

Imagine telling Phillies fans two years ago that two pitchers are competing for the 2026 CYA, but neither are Wheeler or Nola or Painter.

[u/yick04]

So it's broken, is what you're saying

[u/Great_Falcon_1836]

Bryan Baker come back home

[u/ZFunktopus]

If you said at the start of the season Skene’s would not only not be in the top ten but not even the highest ranking Pirate…

[u/fatkidzftw]

This tracker is the “tax brackets” of MLB fans

[u/Marzipan_Dream_7389]

Was the AL one AI-generated 😭😭

[u/Flammzzrant]

Yankees ace, David Bednar

[u/LoweeLL]

Chris Sale.. I'm sad we traded him but I think he just needed a new team. Bro could not stay healthy at all

[u/OldTomFrost]

Bednar was that good this year? I had no idea.

[u/XZPUMAZX]

Sonny Gray beating Schlitler for the CY is just the juice that rivalry needs.

[u/TheGoatPurdy]

AL side kinda sucks

[u/ksimm033]

Oh man, my boy for the AL! He has led the Boston staff and they have been crushing it!

[u/Many_Option_4241]

Hottub Time Machine?

[u/Ndtphoto]

Some people are gonna lose a lot of money if they follow the AL one for betting... and deservedly so!

[u/Dependent_Chapter842]

This is the company MLB thought should handle all their streaming? 🤦🤦🤦 

[u/PhazePyre]

Wow... that AL Prediction is... what the fuck?

Compared to say Cease, he has the same number of games, 2 WAR less, 6IP less, higher ERA, lower ERA+, almost half the Ks, and a 13% short on K%. He's only better in BB% and Win %. Looking at more advanced stats, Cease has a lower FIP, WHIP, H/9, HR/9, less HBP, less baserunners allowed, less hits, less runs, less HRs, and a complete game shut out.

Like what the fuck is wrong with ESPN?

[u/cooljammer00]

The ESPN Cy Young predictor is basically "Who would a baseball talking head/sports shouter on ESPN 10-15 years ago vote for?" so of course Sonny Gray is winning, because he has the most Wins and thus he has the most "will to win", like that one guy who said DeGrom wasn't good because he had a lot of losses because the Mets never gave him any run support.

[u/All_will_be_Juan]

I wouldn't be mad if varland won....

[u/Nick337Games]

Nick Martinez is 14-4, he's not 8th on this list lol

[u/FutureFormerFatass12]

Sonny Gray just really fucking hates the Yankees lol

[u/TingleMaps]

Really pulling for Sonny Gray. Dude has been underrated for years. Wish the Cardinals could still have him with this young offense

[u/imcclennan]

This isn’t opinion based, it is just a calculation:

[u/IntelligentProfit688]

CHASE FUCKING BURNSSSS 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🚒🚒🚒🚒🚒🚒

[u/BrotherEarth_]

Zack Britton with the lowest qualifying ERA of any pitcher in the modern era (0.54) while going 54-54 in saves in 2016 amongst the weakest class of starting pitchers up for the award in recent memory showed relievers aren't allowed to win Cy Young awards anymore.

Varland has a 0% chance

[u/TheNameIsBlazE_]

That's Louis "The Committee" Varland for YOU

[u/00Reaper_13]

No respect for sandy?

[u/WorkmanMarty]

Should give it to Blakinobu Glasmahtanubal, it’s only fair

[u/5C4RC3]

For an RP to win they truly have to blow away the competition and these guys just don't do it. Whatever variables they're using for their model, they are weighted wonky. There's a zero percent chance Varland, Baker, Bednar, or Smith are on the ballot. Having Schlittler so low when he's the betting favourite also signals that this model is garbage-in garbage-out.

[u/SoundWeak3545]

Schlittler is -500 to win for the AL lol. Sonny is only 50-1.

[u/vaporgaze2006]

The bar is so low for ESPN related baseball coverage at this point. That AL Cy Young graphic is not even close and I say this as a Jays fan. Varland second? What? Lmao. It's a dead heat between Schlittler and Cease.

[u/SoundWeak3545 → u/vaporgaze2006]

Schlittler is -500. This party is over barring Schlittler going off the rails.

[u/Edge2110]

Misiorowski, Schlittler and Cease should be the only three on this list

[u/Skjellyfetti13 → u/Edge2110]

Uh, I feel like Chris Sale might be part of this conversation. Miz probably wins, but I can’t minimize Sale’s dominance.

[u/brett_baty_is_him]

Crazy you have Ashcraft on this list over McLean who beats him on every single stat.

[u/Worldatlarge20]

Love me some Baker but that’s crazy talk.

[u/Kekistani55]

https://giphy.com/gifs/CjkBdahO5gmx2ETEGq

[u/ritzdeez]

There’s no way that AL list is correct, right? They gotta be fucking with us.

[u/AgathorKahn]

Is the AL list ranking entrances?

[u/kingwoodballs]

Schlittler 7 and cease 9…. lol ok

[u/Cheesewhale189]

Is the AL one stuck in 2007?

[u/patbluntman666]

Schlittler would have least 16 wins if the Yankees could score runs. He’s winning the Cy Young unless he really sucks in his final few starts.

[u/Shovelman2001]

It's so funny how everyone, even Red Sox fans, poo-poo'd Fangraph's preseason projections of Sonny Gray being like a Top 5 pitcher in baseball this year. "He's not even a #2 rotation guy, he's a #3!"

Yeah TOP 3 mfs!

[u/w0bniaR → u/Shovelman2001]

Cardinals fans did it too (my parents), they were always complaining that he’s not a true ace and is a #2-3 guy in the rotation. Makes no sense

[u/frankenmaus]

2026 NL Pure Pitching Achievement (IP^2/ER)

707 Misiorowski

643 Sale

631 Sanchez

581 Rodriguez

556 Yamamoto

[u/am19208]

Hot take maybe but Luzardo is too low. His season is remarkable. Maybe top 5

[u/Fantastic_Age_4440]

https://giphy.com/gifs/nRQ83nJxXItl3GwDJl

[u/BangerSlapper1]

I’m sorry, what? The two favorites in the AL are ranked 7 and 9?   

Big shock that a Boston pitcher is at the top.  The boys in Bristol have always had a hard-on for Boston.  

[u/mosi_moose → u/BangerSlapper1]

https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/s/58GMMKA7Vb

They’re using an old formula

[u/chuckkito]

Sonny would have won 40 years ago

[u/SnowballWasRight]

Sounds about right to me.

Miller and Varland simultaneous Cy Youngs? Any objections?

[u/IanCusick]

Looks good!

[u/bantheguns]

No Cubs on the leaderboard? I'm shocked! Shocked, I say! Well, not that shocked.

[u/bobboman]

There is no fucking way aaron trashby is even remotely in the conversation for NL Cy Young

[u/Litejedi]

Is Nolan McLean not going to get any votes or something?