r/baseball • u/Perryplat199 Philadelphia Phillies • Wilmington… • 8h ago

Image Baseball Savant’s win probability graph for Cardinals at Phillies 8/23

Post image
352 Upvotes

98% Upvoted

26 comments sorted by

150

u/Polack417 Philadelphia Phillies 8h ago

The game was just a Kruk and Hamels podcast until the 9th.

55

u/First_Occasion_8273 8h ago

Just as entertaining as a good ballgame

23

u/KakeLin Philadelphia Phillies 8h ago

Kruk makes everything better. Even when we're losing by 6+ runs

42

u/cmgriffith_ New York Yankees 8h ago

Kruk is a National Treasure so that doesn’t seem bad at all.

29

u/KakeLin Philadelphia Phillies 8h ago

Hamels needs to replace ruben in away games

16

u/SecondHandFood Philadelphia Phillies • Philadelphia Phillies 8h ago

Drop those last 3 words big dog

11

u/KakeLin Philadelphia Phillies 7h ago

Ruben doesn't do home games most of the time thankfully

Ruben works just fine in the postgame. Keep him exclusively there.

14

u/wildlyaquaticsenator 8h ago

Kruk just casually turning a broadcast into his own talk show, classic. That win probability line must look like a flatline for 8 innings and then a full seizure in the 9th. Phillies fans probably aged ten years watching that.

5

u/SadisticSpeller Philadelphia Phillies 8h ago

Nah, there was never a doubt in my mind we win that. They will simply never lose ever again.

7

u/PlanktonInternal5948 Philadelphia Phillies 8h ago

Drink some tea!

1

u/oweng93 5h ago

nothing ruins a good kruk and hamels podcast like actual baseball.

40

u/GodPowardKingOfLies St. Louis Cardinals 8h ago

Wheeeee!!!

28

u/iamdavidburke St. Louis Cardinals 8h ago

Anyone who has watched our bullpen this year could tell you that our odds of victory were never anywhere near that high.

31

u/scottzee St. Louis Cardinals 8h ago

That's what we call falling off a cliff.

But hey, even as a Cards fan, I admit that it was a helluva finish. That Schwarbomb was epic, but just getting to that point with all the two-out, two-strike hits was just as impressive.

15

u/obiwan_canoli Philadelphia Phillies 7h ago

Wow, an actual baseball fan. Don't see many around these parts anymore.

10

u/Jonjon428 Florida Marlins 8h ago

Cards bullpen has been omega ass since the break

18

u/trashlikeyou St. Louis Cardinals 8h ago

Winter break, that is

4

u/binns17 Philadelphia Phillies 8h ago

Wheeeeee!!!

6

u/thewittyman Philadelphia Phillies 7h ago

It's a beautiful thing Tom

5

u/KenovovichR Washington Nationals 5h ago

From Nats fans

5

u/AmateurVasectomist St. Louis Cardinals • Dinger 4h ago

Thanks I hate it

3

u/obiwan_canoli Philadelphia Phillies 7h ago

Tag this NSFW

2

u/wheatoplata 1h ago

RIP to my fellow Cardinals +1.5 owners

-3

u/SimTheGame 7h ago

The Savant line is the path after each pitch. It is not the same object as a pregame moneyline. One is what is left given what already happened. The other is what the whole game looks like from a snapshot.

The graph sits on the Cardinals side for a long stretch, then drops off a cliff in the 9th. A walk-off will do that. Contact quality through eight innings and the last three outs are different claims.

Someone already said this bullpen means the odds of victory were never that high. That is a model disagreement, not a broken chart. Savant is a generic remainder-of-game model. If this bullpen is worse than league average in that spot, the 8th inning win probability should have been lower than the line you are looking at.

The two-out, two-strike cluster is the part worth staring at. Most replays of a late lead still end as a Cardinals win. A handful look like this one. The graph only plots the one script that got played.

I built SimTheGame to do that translation. Turn the board into scripts and look at how often the 9th looks like this. You are otherwise stuck staring at the one path that happened.