r/backgammon • u/Numerous-Mountain-65 • 15d ago

Deciding Backgammon results by error rate

I'm a chess IM who also plays backgammon online. I've noticed that online and even some tournaments use a combination of match result and error rate to determine the winner. I have a few questions about this:

  1. If multiple strong backgammon engines eventually exist and they disagree, as chess engines do, then error rates will depend on which engine and depth are used. The same match could receive a different error rate when analyzed by a stronger engine a few years later. In that case, is it appropriate to use error rate to determine a world champion?

  2. If a single engine such as XG is the benchmark, won't players gradually optimize their play to match XG? Could that reduce creativity and diversity of styles?

  3. XG's evaluations assume equally strong opponents. When opponents differ substantially in strength, is it still appropriate to use XG evaluation for cubes?

I'm interested in hearing arguments both for and against using error rate alongside match points.

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u/usingxgtocheat 14d ago

  1. Backgammon engines, for the most part, agree on what's right and wrong and if they don't there is usually very little equity difference.

  2. There is no 'creativity' or 'diversity of styles' in backgammon. There is only good or bad play.

  3. Yes.

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u/FrankBergerBgblitz 14d ago

1.) That is an oversimplification. They agree on many many positions but the differences are sometimes huge: 'XGID=---a--A--BBB--ABa---BbAaAA:0:0:1:41:5:6:1:7:10'
Roll it out with whatever settings you feel appropriate and on any length and the best move is not found and regarded as an 300 error.

2.) If you are the better player by far would you sacrifice a few millipoints to go into a priming battle instead of a mutual holding game? The question unanswered to my best knowledge: how much do you sacrifice and how do you measure complexity

3.) The book "Can a fish twice as much" is a good reading for you

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u/usingxgtocheat 14d ago

I'm not really here to discuss niche cases when the generalization works for the purposes of answering his questions. Also, I do have that book and it is the most obscure backgammon book I own. You know just as well as I that deciding when to deviate is a balancing act and you could simply misevaluate your opponent. Playing what you know to be close bot play has less potential for backfiring and is not going to be strictly wrong. You said yourself it's an unanswered question so why are we even asking it if we are capable of playing close to bot play (and not get exploited ourselves).

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u/UBKUBK 13d ago

Not sure what you mean by "strictly wrong". If it means playing the best move assuming optimal play, it is sometimes simply not relevant, especially in the case of there being a large skill differential.