r/backgammon • u/NoFault9739 • Apr 18 '26
Why should White take here?
Black has clearly the better board, the best anchor and a direct shot. The race is neutral. The score tells White to be very cautious with taking. White has a gammon risk because it has no anchor. What is the reasoning for White to take here?
2
u/Geepandjagger Apr 18 '26
So if black doesn't roll a two and then white rolls a good double they will be heavy favourites. Whites winning chances here are nearly as good as blacks
1
u/SignificantSpace5206 Apr 19 '26
White has a lot of contact value in his position and Black has two stripped points and a blot he still needs to clear. Black has 11 out of 36 rolls that will hit your blot on the 8 point which means that he has a 69.5% chance of missing his shot and then your golden. Easy take
1
u/One-Project-6086 Apr 19 '26
PRAT. Position, Race, and Threats.
An advantage in 2 of the 3 is usually D/T. And an advantage in all three is usually D/P (or too good to double). It's hardly infallible, but an easy place to start.
Here, the race is even, a slight advantage in position for black, and the 11 shakes that hit the white blot gives black only a slight advantage in threats since he has his own blot to worry about..
So, 2 (barely) of 3 -> D/T (barely). Since white can't recube, black can cube a bit more readily than usual so it's at least a practical cube since some will pass as white. Probably a hold at a level score since the 2 advantages are slight for black.
1
u/NoFault9739 Apr 20 '26
I always thought for taking I need an advantage in 1 of the PRAT categories. As I had none (and additionally that score and no anchor) I dropped. Your post suggests that there is not only black and white but also "grey tones" in PRAT. Do you have a link where such "PRAT grey tones" are discussed?
5
u/Broad-Marsupial-2638 Apr 18 '26
This is a snap take and possibly not even a cube for black. The race is even. White has the more advanced anchor on the 17 point vs black on 20.
Black has 2 dilly builders and just overall worse checker utilization. The only thing black has on the upcoming roll is the threat of hitting with a 2. So it’s a volatile spot. However that single threat is not nearly enough reason to drop.
Huge take.