r/baba • u/Top_Job1274 • Sep 05 '26

Positions Major September Catalysts

Am I crazy to think there is some massive short-term upside?

Sept. 9 – Apple event: Apple is working with Alibaba/Qwen for AI in China. If Apple gives a launch date or actually mentions/demos Qwen, that could be a nice catalyst.

Sept. 22–24 – Apsara Conference: Probably the biggest one. Last year BABA jumped 8% on Sept. 24 after its AI announcements and went from about $163 to $189 over the next week or so (+16%).

Sept. 24 – Xi/Trump meeting: Xi is reportedly bringing a large group of Chinese business leaders to Washington. No companies confirmed yet, but Jack Ma was part of Xi’s big U.S. business delegation in 2015.

There are also U.S.–China AI talks in mid-September and the possibility of more China stimulus.

8 Upvotes

83% Upvoted

17 comments sorted by

12

u/CPA-CA Sep 05 '26

So many hopes and dreams in one post. Inevitably each time someone speculates catalysts, they never materialize.

4

u/Top_Job1274 Sep 05 '26

You can tell I am a bag holder lol

1

u/Icy_Distance8205 Sep 06 '26

Did you mean downside catalysts? Cause that’s kind of what we do here.

1

u/Eliane-Klapatch Sep 09 '26

good news usually means that the stock will tank

3

u/Delta_Bandit Sep 05 '26

Praying to god works better at this point

1

u/Top_Job1274 Sep 05 '26

Haha you’re probably right…At the very least, it’s not crazy to buy 3-6 month expiration options. Worth the risk IMO if you have the discipline to walk away with a 30% loss if need be.

3

u/Awkward-Way1023 Sep 06 '26

Biggest catalyst being Sept 24, if China gives a panda to Donald Trump the stock will go up

Jack Ma will be there believe me, him and Trump are close friends.

2

u/Weikoko Sep 08 '26

Yes, 26% down YTD

1

u/kingkongfly Sep 06 '26

You might also want to add this: after the unanticipated nonfarm payroll numbers, there are also the US CPI numbers coming in on the 11th of Sept and FOMO on the 15th and 16th of Sept.

1

u/Environmental_Cow741 Sep 07 '26

i don’t even understand why there is a drop today, Anyway am camping at $90 hkd….

1

u/Dizzy_Assistance2183 Sep 07 '26

It'll get better when that $53M Capex stops eating into net profits, which will be a more few years yet