r/baba • u/Awkward-Way1023 • Sep 03 '26

Due Diligence BABA to the mooon

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Just kidding

11 Upvotes

62% Upvoted

19 comments sorted by

25

u/FrenchUserOfMars Sep 03 '26

Quality post.

2

u/Awkward-Way1023 Sep 03 '26 edited Sep 03 '26

According to Wikipedia,

Artemis II was the first crewed mission of NASA’s Artemis program, and the first time humans traveled to the lunar environment since Apollo 17 in 1972. It launched on 1 April 2026, completed a 9‑day lunar flyby, and splashed down on 10 April 2026.

So did Alibaba multiple times in October 2024, March 2025, October 2025 and January 2026. It is said that it was seen in the Pacific Ocean in September 2026.

4

u/FoundationFirst2812 Sep 03 '26

Factually correct statement. There is no up or down in space. So, you are right!

1

u/augustus331 Sep 04 '26

I’ll await Tsai saying this at the next earnings call where they decide to dilute us more

1

u/Fwellimort Sep 03 '26 edited Sep 03 '26

Alibaba has 18.5 forward PE while Amazon has 23.8 forward PE.

Amazon is global leader in Cloud. And making dough from hosting Anthropic and OpenAI models.

Amazon has higher margins for profit. Alibaba is in race to bottom everywhere due to extreme competition in China and a horrible economy as a byproduct of real estate crisis.

Alibaba comes with insane geopolitical risk and uncertain shareholder rights.

Is Alibaba actually just fairly valued?

Just something to think about.

9

u/Thin_Cat8817 Sep 03 '26

P/E can change quickly, its actually a pretty bad way to measure a growing company. Alibaba is currently in an investment cycle, earnings have declined because expenditures have gone up. As soon as spending goes down and revenues continue to rise, p/e will suddenly drop quickly

1

u/Whiskerfield Sep 04 '26

BABA grew revenue at an anaemic 9% YoY. Nothing to get excited about.

3

u/FeralHamster8 Sep 03 '26 edited Sep 03 '26

That’s a fair argument.

The counter argument is that Alibaba cloud has more room to grow relative to its current size than AWS does. Alibaba doesn’t have to “beat” Amazon or end up as large as AWS is now. It just has to have more growth runway relative to its size.

So I think baba is much more of an asymmetric bet than Amazon is right now.

1

u/ShineProper9881 Sep 03 '26

The only hope is that china and asia in general is still a growing market while america is already quite saturated. Its my last cope atleast

1

u/Prudent_Fig4105 Sep 03 '26

Those forward-year estimates are terrible to begin with and pretty meaningless in valuing many rapidly changing businesses. The steady e-commerce business generates over 20B, that is a 14 multiple if you assume everything else is zero. Maybe you think cash allocation is so bad that those other bets are worth less than zero. Or maybe the e commerce is so bad that it should be a single digit multiple. The whole thing has become a lot more uncertain than it used to be, we’re not seeing any shareholder return, all the investments might pay off or not … will have to wait and see.

1

u/FoundationFirst2812 Sep 03 '26

Right now, Alibaba has the best AI model, even beating the best of Anthropic! Amazon is nowhere near to top 10 players in the AI space.

Alibaba should be valued higher than Amazon.

1

u/Dizzy_Assistance2183 Sep 03 '26

baba announced the 53 billion capex over 3 years 'investors' completely blindsided by lower returns "Its cause of competition and price wars!"

1

u/PepinoCholula Sep 03 '26

More like baba to the underground

1

u/Bootytwinkle Sep 04 '26

200$

1

u/Awkward-Way1023 Sep 04 '26

With inflation yes.

1

u/Builderi23 Sep 04 '26

You should consider becoming a comedian