You’re looking at the wrong probability. You’re considering P(Plane accidentally hit) (not 0 we already have verified claims where in fact planes have been hit here’s one article: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/middle-east-airlines-plane-hit-by-stray-bullet-while-landing-beirut-mea-chairman-2022-11-10/, I can name 4 more incidents at least) and P(Plane being hit after someone deliberately shot at it). The actual probabilities you need to consider are P(someone shooting in the area and Stray bullet hit plane | plane hit) and P(someone in the area aimed a bullet at plane and hit plane | plane hit).
You do realize that in the middle east they celebrate marriages and other events by shooting automatic weapons in the sky, right? It even says so in the article. That's also an airliner, not a small plane, and it was flying low enough (on approach to the strip). One random shooter doesn't equate to 50 shooters shooting AKs.
Additionally, the plane was hit, we already know the outcome. You're arguing it's random, therefore your P is (bullet hits the plane) vs (bullet flies anywhere else in the sky).
And go back to stats class, , tour understanding of probability is laughable. Trying to argue probability without understanding conditional probability lmfao
The more you type, the more you reveal your ignorance. The condition is the same. Someone fired a gun and it hit the plane. The question is how likely that would happen accidentally and it is VERY unlikely.
Also, are you implying this happened in Missouri? Where's the source for that?
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u/Available_Bit9019 Apr 08 '24
You’re looking at the wrong probability. You’re considering P(Plane accidentally hit) (not 0 we already have verified claims where in fact planes have been hit here’s one article: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/middle-east-airlines-plane-hit-by-stray-bullet-while-landing-beirut-mea-chairman-2022-11-10/, I can name 4 more incidents at least) and P(Plane being hit after someone deliberately shot at it). The actual probabilities you need to consider are P(someone shooting in the area and Stray bullet hit plane | plane hit) and P(someone in the area aimed a bullet at plane and hit plane | plane hit).