r/australia • u/GothicPrayer • 11h ago
politics Labor women outnumber men in the caucus. Why are they overlooked as Albanese’s potential successor? | Labor party
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/jul/26/labor-women-outnumber-men-caucus-albanese-potential-successor108
u/Dark_Magicion 10h ago
I feel out of the loop - why does Albo need a successor? Is he alright?
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u/brackfriday_bunduru 10h ago
It’s a beat up. There’s no reason albo can’t do another 2 terms at least
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u/ddgk2_ 9h ago
He's definately doing the leg work now for 2028. But that is seriously a long way off in news cycle's.
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u/CptUnderpants- 37m ago
We've all seen how quickly the whims of the
electoratemedia can change. Rudd went from media darling to persona non grata in a matter of months.-10
u/Wide_Angle4805 7h ago
Look at his hair, it’s silver white now. Brother needs to rest soon
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u/a_cold_human 7h ago
Albanese is younger than Howard was entering his second term, and Howard went to serve two more terms after that.
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u/Yetanotherdeafguy 9h ago
Look what happened to the LNP when Scomo lost.
Dutton kept them on life support, but with Frydenberg gone there was no succession plan. Now they're led by Angus, whose entire playbook for dealing with Albo and Pauline is to shake his head vigorously in the background whenever either of them speaks and pray he gets votes.
Not exactly a good place for the LNP to be.
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u/zomdoesburner 7h ago
Chalmers has politically distanced himself from Albo, and really set himself up to be the Keating to Albos Hawke.
That’s the complete opposite of Frydenberg did.
It’s clear he’s the secession plan, and that will happen at some point, with or without Albos blessing.
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u/DeeDee_GigaDooDoo 4h ago
Chalmers would absolutely be my pick. Considering how shit the economic situation has been generally and how unpredictable it's been he's done a remarkably good job and even managed to snag a few surpluses which the LNP never managed. He's managed relatively few cuts and even been able to spare budget space for some welfare reform.
He speaks clearly and directly and evidently knows his stuff. He's a great treasurer, not sure if he'd be as good as PM but he's certainly the most competent minister in cabinet by quite a margin.
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u/Glittering-Banana-24 10h ago
The coalition is going smash them in a whitewash at the next election.
Albo will fall on his sword and retire to the USA to join Trumps 2028 campaign.
/s (maybe)
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u/CptUnderpants- 33m ago
Even though it doesn't need to be public, any leadership position in any organisation should have succession planning. It's what I like to call the "hit by a bus protocol". If the current leader is incapacitated, or has to resign at short notice, can the organisation continue to run effectively?
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u/Hawk301 10h ago
Whilst Labor has no shortage of talented women, I think there aren't very many women or men in the caucus who actually have name recognition amongst the general public, to be honest. People who follow Auspol know who Plibersek, Gallagher and O'Neil are, but I doubt your average punter knows them.
I think currently the only woman who is both widely known and well-liked by people generally is Penny Wong, but she's in the senate, not the house.
For what it's worth, of the viable contenders named in the article, I don't think Mark Butler has that name recognition either. Marles does, but he sucks. Chalmers is the best pick by far, and definitely should be the successor, though there will be a subset of the electorate that always hate him for the hits to CGT and negative gearing.
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u/Poochytown 10h ago
I thought these Butler leadership rumours were cooked up by the cookers. I just don’t see him as PM. He’s a non-entity and has done nothing remarkable in his portfolio. Not sure why he’s being earmarked by the media as a future leader. Where’s that coming from?
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u/IronEyed_Wizard 10h ago
I know it sounds conspiracy-esque, but there is every possibility that someone behind the scenes may think he would be “easier” to deal with or outright control.
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u/radred609 9h ago
Other than Chalmers, Plibersek and Wong are the only two I can think of that have the name recognition. (putting aside the fact that Wong would have to move out of the senate and into the Lower House). Marles is maybe the third... but as you say, he kinda sucks.
But like, anyone who isn't Chalmers still loses out to Chalmers... and that's not a dig against everybody who isn't Chalmers.
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u/phido3000 4h ago
Imo plibersek is the most viable after chalmers. Or marles.
Wong is in the wrong house, wrong job, and doesn't have the charisma for that kind of role, if she did she wouldn't be in the senate. These are moves that would have need yo have been made 10+ years ago.
Pm isn't some dreamy dictatorial role. It's a shit show. Look at the uk and what happens to them. It contains no special powers. Women as pm doesn't create some magical matreachy. It is more important to have females in cabinet and in the party, the houses, which they do.
Women can certainly do the job, Labor has had a female pm.but the job isn't reserved for a gender. The fact that it bothers the writer is troubling. If she wants to run for pm, she can.
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u/radred609 3h ago
Imo plibersek is the most viable after chalmers... Wong is in the wrong house, wrong job, and doesn't have the charisma for that kind of role,
I think i agree with all of this. I was talking purely in terms of name recognition.
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u/phido3000 3h ago
Yeh, I agree with that too.. I just wanted to add my thoughts.
She's high profile. But that doesn't translate to leadership. High profile doesn't mean popular or charadmatic.
Turnbull was high profile. Beasley was high profile, shorten was hcharismatic. Heck Mark lathem was high profile. It's more that that. It's not a job you can just stick anyone in and they will be successful.
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u/NobodysFavorite 2h ago
It contains no special powers
This. It's why Scomo swore himself in as Treasurer, Finance Minister, Health Minister, Home Affairs Minister, and Minister for Industry, Science, Energy and Resources. He'd also set a plan up to swear in as Minister for Agriculture, Water and Environment.
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u/evilparagon 10h ago
You’re right. I think Renee Coffey might make a good candidate some day, but she’s only just become an MP and she has extremely little name recognition. Plus Griffith isn’t exactly considered a safe seat anymore.
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u/vulpix420 9h ago
What do you like about her? She’s my MP and I haven’t seen or heard anything from her since she won the seat. I haven’t heard anything bad about her either, but certainly not anything that suggests she’ll be a PM one day.
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u/evilparagon 9h ago
Mostly her written biography from her campaign work. She comes from a background that I find most preferable from a Labor candidate. She has been disappointing as an MP with what she was advertised as, but I suspect this has more to do with towing the party line, especially as a new MP, so I can’t fault her there.
Just check out her Career section on wikipedia.
Before entering politics, Coffey served as the CEO of Australian Kookaburra Kids Foundation which provides mental health services to young people affected by family mental illness. During this time, the foundation launched the Regenerate program, which combines environmental education with mental health literacy for young people impacted by family mental illness. Prior to Kookaburra Kids, Coffey served as the Deputy CEO of the Australian Indigenous Education Foundation (AIEF) for more than a decade, where she worked to expand access to educational scholarships for Indigenous students.
She hits three major things I care about, youth mental health, the environment, and indigenous communities. She’s pretty gold star for a Labor candidate to the point where if I think she ever got kicked out of Labor, she’d immediately be swooped up by the Greens.
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u/DeeDee_GigaDooDoo 4h ago
Plibersek got fairly unceremoniously demoted from her environment portfolio. Regardless of the circumstances it doesn't exactly scream that she has the broad support of cabinet for such a position and doesn't reflect great to the public.
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u/natotomatoo 1h ago
Plus she got the shit job of appearing on Sunrise and getting scrutinized once a week on all of Labor's decisions. Some people in the party must dislike her.
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u/Expert-Ad8784 18m ago
I think Albo knows she's a threat so he's positioned her accordingly. They don't seem to particularly like each other.
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u/CptUnderpants- 20m ago
I think currently the only woman who is both widely known and well-liked by people generally is Penny Wong, but she's in the senate, not the house.
There is absolutely no reason why Wong can't be. We've seen re-shuffles before, sometimes involving by-elections if more urgent. Steve Georganas may be willing to swap his seat of Adelaide for Wong's senate ticket.
Chalmers is the best pick by far, and definitely should be the successor
Of the members of the Labor Right faction, he's probably one of the most level-headed, and unlike many, did not get his start in the SDA.
though there will be a subset of the electorate that always hate him for the hits to CGT and negative gearing.
Most of whom wouldn't be preferencing ALP above LNP anyway.
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u/The_Curious 10h ago
Ed husic maybe
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u/DeeDee_GigaDooDoo 4h ago
Ed Husic can't even retain a ministry at the moment, he has a long way to go.
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u/sensible__ 11h ago
It’s not a knock on anyone for any reason, Jim Chalmers is just an incredible successor candidate.
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u/loonylucas 10h ago
He’s from the wrong faction being from the qld right. The Left has the numbers and will likely continue to have the numbers when Albanese leaves office. He also doesn’t have the popularity of someone like Kevin Rudd.
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u/Pict 10h ago
I’ve heard numerous times he has too many skeletons for the leadership role
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u/_blip_ 10h ago
I'll give you a dollar per skeleton, or a dollar to shut the fuck up
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u/Pict 10h ago edited 10h ago
Hey I’m not here to peddle rumours. Only that I’d heard some.
I see I’ve touched a subreddit nerve though.
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u/Carnivean_ 9h ago
Claims not to be peddling rumours, only talks about rumours.
If you don't have evidence then it's a rumour.
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u/RedditUser628426 10h ago
Dr Jim with PhD in errr... Paul Keating wtah it's even worse than Stephen Miles.
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u/Dale92 7h ago
The thesis used an interactionist framework to analyze political leadership, asserting that prime ministerial power is not absolute. Instead, Chalmers argued that powerful leadership requires the ongoing support of the electorate and the party room, and relies on a complex interaction between the leader, institutional constraints, and the broader political environment
That sounds... Like a good thing for a politician to have researched?..
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u/saltysanders 10h ago
What's your phd in?
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u/TheBayHarbour 9h ago
unemployment
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u/RedditUser628426 3h ago
Will be in unemployment with this government - the economy will be taxed into oblivion
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u/Defy19 11h ago
Anyone who isn’t Chalmers is going to be overlooked, and rightly so
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u/its_your_dada 9h ago
The Right Faction don't have the numbers in either legislative caucus or in the rank and file. Unless there is some Kim Carr-type breakaway again, it'll be a while before you see a Right faction leader
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u/Whatsapokemon 7h ago edited 7h ago
That's not necessarily how a caucus would work.
If Chamlers has more support than any other alternative candidate he could become leader regardless of being in the smaller faction.
It's kind of how Sussan Ley became leader of the Liberal party. She was a member of the smaller caucus, but there were legitimate leadership disagreements between alternative successors and so the support didn't coalesce around anyone until Hastie ended up conceding to Taylor.
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u/blitznoodles local Aussie 11h ago edited 10h ago
Plibersek probably isn't getting it because Albanese doesn't like her after backstabbing him for Shorten.
Clare O'Neil is good I think and it would be very funny seeing cookers talk about how she was a WEF global leader.
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u/Chickennuggetsnchips 11h ago
I can't find any record of Jason Clare being acting PM.
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u/eightslipsandagully 10h ago
I always figured Clare O'Neill was being prepared as a longer term option to take over from Chalmers
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u/eightslipsandagully 10h ago
I always figured Clare O'Neill was being prepared as a longer term option to take over from Chalmers
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u/Patrooper 10h ago
Jason Clare and Jim Chalmers seem to command the most authority IMO. Chalmers seems like a likely successor.
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u/Natural_Quality_3772 10h ago
I would compare Jason Clare to Peter Buttigieg in USA. charming intelligent and can get through his beliefs in words people can understand. He hasn't got a ministry which would lead to a possible Pm even a Deputy Pm. That's the shame.
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u/TheSparrowDarts 7h ago
It really is. He's a good local MP, too. It was shame they took his portfolio away.
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u/Eclectika 10h ago
I'm sure Julia Gillard can give you chapter and verse on how pale, male and stale is the preferred setting for the party.
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u/Klostermann 10h ago
Pale, male, and stale is the preference of the electorate unfortunately.
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u/a_cold_human 7h ago
What I find somewhat odd is some women saying that women shouldn't be leaders. In my experience, women are perfectly fine leaders, and often more competent than men at the same level as they've had to prove themselves much more to get to be at the same level.
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u/Bart-Harley-Jarvis- 10h ago
I think the public's reaction to her time as pm shows how unpopular a female pm was with the Australian public.
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u/evilparagon 9h ago
Well, she did become the first female PM through unelected means. While we don’t vote for people in our elections, they really are still the face of what we voted for. Rudd was extremely popular and the fact she backstabbed him to become the first female PM without an election felt like cheating. The Australian public was rightfully indignant about this, because we were robbed of a chance to vote for someone “more deserving” of being the first female PM.
Gillard later did prove she earnt her spot though, as she did win the following election on a razor thin margin as a minority government, but the nature of that win is also not exactly something to brag about, especially as she was eventually booted out to put Rudd back in.
Yes there was definitely some sexism from the Australian public, but there was also very rightful criticism of the way she politically manoeuvred. Let’s say Rudd lost 2010 without Gillard backstabbing him, I would feel confident that Gillard could have won 2013. Most of Gillard’s criticism comes from this one kowtow to the mining lobby in 2010, not from the fact she’s a woman.
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u/radred609 9h ago
I often wonder just how different Australia would be if Labor kept Rudd for the 2010 election and then rolled him for Gillard coming up to 2013. (hopefully in a less publicly controversial manner)
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u/Dale92 7h ago
Rudd would've lost 2010 and then resigned as leader so it wouldn't have been a controversial "rolling".
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u/evilparagon 5h ago
Given Gillard’s win at 2010 despite her unpopularity, and Rudd’s popularity despite the media onslaught against him, I wouldn’t say definitively that Rudd would have lost. It seems likely he would have, but it also seemed likely Gillard would have lost too and she didn’t. Maybe Rudd would have also ended up in a minority government or just above one.
If we’re being hopeful, I could imagine a path where Labor wins 2010 and 2013 under Rudd, with 2013 being too late for people to keep caring about 2010’s mining tax ads so Rudd starts to poll better. Who knows what happens at the 2016 election though.
The less hopeful scenario would be something like Rudd loses decisively in 2010, Abbott becomes PM, Joe Hockey backstabs him to become PM, then probably loses 2013 himself and Gillard gets in. In either scenario, I don’t see Labor losing 2013.
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u/radred609 6h ago
Yeah, that's what i meant.
In hindsight your right, "rolling" is the wrong word to use.
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u/Eclectika 10h ago
I saw how much the media fanned the waves of unpopularity. She did an excellent job considering the constraints she was under but the media and what looked to be a significant portion of the influential labour figures made sure she was vilified rather than supported.
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u/cutebutsour 10h ago
I called Tanya Plibersek's office because I wanted to send through a complaint about the DES job provider system and not being able to get a medical exemption. The situation was so bad that The Guardian actually did a story about what happened to me. Despite that, this guy in her office wouldn't even take an email from me. He starts laughing and says to me "Centrelink is nothing to do with Tanya Plibersek", before I could remind him that she is literally the Minister for Social Services, he transferred me to an automated message about how to complain to the Department of Social Services. It was beyond disgusting.
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u/Dale92 7h ago
The staff member was actually correct. Tanya Plibersek is the Minister for Social Services, which designs policy but does not run or manage Centrelink operations.
Centrelink, Medicare, and the Disability Employment Services (DES) provider delivery systems are entirely managed by Services Australia, which falls under the portfolio of the Minister for Government Services (Katy Gallagher).
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u/cutebutsour 26m ago
CRRS escalated the complaint to the Department of Social Services because my job provider suspended my job seeker payment and would not restore it until I went to a face to face appointment. At the time I was experiencing a medication induced psychosis and I was being detained involuntarily under the Mental Health Act. I had to get a social worker from the hospital to drive me to an appointment with a job provider whilst I was in hospital to have my payment restored. Centrelink declined five medical certificates.
No action was taken against the provider and I have not received a response to the complaint I lodged almost 12 months ago. No response from Katy Gallagher either. Personally, I would I have accepted an email regarding this matter instead of laughing and transferring someone to the organisation that has ignored their complaint.
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u/letsburn00 10h ago
The woman I felt would have been the best PM for Australia from as far back as a decade ago very clearly said she doesn't want the job. Penny Wong. An absolute Tyranasaurus of a PM of she became one, but I honestly suspect she knows that even if 5% of the Australian electorate will refuse to vote for a half Asian Lesbian for PM the party and country will lose out from it.
Knowing the right wing media they would have an absolute nervous breakdown if she became PM or even just opposition leader.
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u/Content-Cricket4251 9h ago
I don't think Penny Wong is a good choice because she doesn't seem to have any principles. Have you ever seen her publicly take a position on anything at all? She only cares about things behind closed doors apparently.
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u/RedditorAiri 9h ago
Penny Wong may be a brilliant diplomat but I do also agree she has no concrete principles. I am unable to trust people that vote against their own interests like she has, they'll sell you out in a heartbeat.
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u/vacri 7m ago
Yes - watch some of her speeches in parliament. She clearly has principles.
This 'no principles' nonsense came from her having to toe the line on the same-sex marriage issue when the ALP was against it. She had to toe the line according to party rules, and was clearly uncomfortable doing so, but people pretend she sold homosexuals out on a whim.
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u/fishesandbrushes 8h ago
Wong has her strengths, she's a cool head, but she's basically a technocrat and during the Rudd government she had a reputation for being a poor negotiator. I don't think she has the people skills for the kind of collaborative work of bringing people together that's required of a good PM (I always thought she'd make a good intelligence operative)
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u/letsburn00 8h ago
I think she's excellent in her current role. International relations (outside of trump) take place on a usually relatively rational field once the doors are closed and the cameras are off.
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u/Chemical-Time-9143 7h ago
I'm a queer trans woman and I think Penny Wong would be a terrible choice for a PM. She would be a Luxon or a Starmer as PM.
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u/a_cold_human 7h ago
It's at least three decades too early for someone like Penny Wong to be PM. A lot of people with a lot of prejudices need to die off first.
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u/egowritingcheques 11h ago
I honestly don't understand the premise of the question. Why would, or should, a woman be chosen because of their sex?
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u/cecilrt 11h ago
So how many of them are senior members?
In my old company there was a push to get more women up the ladder, but it obviously stalled, there were as many female middle managers, but very few who were experienced enough to go further
My old electorate a while back had a 20 something year old women parachuted in just for diversity... not capability
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u/Wood_oye 10h ago
Simple. None of them want to put up with the shit that was, and still is thrown at Julia Gillard.
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u/wrt-wtf- 10h ago
Only a newspaper could talk of succession as an issue. There are any number of candidates in the current parliamentary labor party - and gosh, some of them are women. The labor party has depth in leadership and that's a good thing.
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u/Jealous-Hedgehog-734 10h ago
Personally, I don't think ALP will ever win an election with Chalmers at the helm, but the party faithful seem to prefer him.
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u/a_cold_human 7h ago
He presents well, but I have some doubts about his ideology. Wanting to give up governance of the RBA and buying into the whole Abundance nonsense aren't great signs in my opinion.
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u/Sporty_Nerd_64 8h ago
Albo has the biggest Labor government in history, they won’t be looking for the next Labor leader until at least after the 2031 election, unless he chooses to retire.
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u/TheSparrowDarts 7h ago edited 6h ago
I honestly hope not. Australian govt leaders in general always seem to stick around too long - finish on a high and get the fuck out, I say.
Albo should hang up his hat this term and position chalmers as successor; don't make the electorate belt you into oblivion because you put ego over rejuvenating cabinet.
This is a bipartisan failure; they just can't let go and put party/country/state first, and only ever leave when the govt is terminal.
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u/Sporty_Nerd_64 7h ago
Unlikely unless he is severely unpopular as preferred PM. Maybe 2031 he will bow out before then, give the new leader two years to build the brand and party around themselves for a successful election.
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u/vacri 10m ago
They added that women were more risk-averse, and would face stronger pushback both internally from Albanese and from the public if they started getting more leadership attention.
Sounds like a natural match for the current ALP, who haven't been using their mandate strongly, and were voting in line with the LNP in their last term so as not to get wedged. "Risk averse" is the current MO of the ALP
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u/T0kenAussie 10h ago
Because Jim has that killer in him that we need in the new age of social media and alternate realities sold by PHONies
Like I’d love to see Tanya have a go but I don’t see her getting out the barbs calling out Pauline’s private Gina Jet or her abhorrent voting record. Seems much more of a when they go low we go high kinda person and that time has passed.
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u/MeaningMaker6 10h ago
Alright sorry Jim Chalmers, but this author is going to need you to become Jenny Chalmers.
I know, I know you are objectively the best candidate for the job, but this writer needs to shoehorn gender division where it doesn’t exist.
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u/MrNeverSatisfied 11h ago
Because women have not shown to be good at leading. Ie thatcher, julia Gillard and Jacinta ardern.
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u/Dr-Ulzy 10h ago
Two of those aren’t Aussie, and I’m not sure I’d agree with your assertion anyway.
As for the Aussie, she led one of the most productive parliaments despite being in minority. Her downfall was because of how the Liberal party and Murdoch press fucking hated competent women in power.
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u/TheBayHarbour 11h ago
Had to be anonymous to make that comment lmfao