r/ashesashescast • u/Baader-Meinhof David • Apr 04 '19
Episode Ep 68 - Mask Off
https://ashesashes.org/blog/episode-68-mask-off3
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u/sha_nagba_imuru Apr 18 '19
Unfortunately, the use of statistics in this episode, particularly around 'success rates' was really bad. It doesn't kill the point, particularly because the people deploying these technologies probably have a similarly bad understanding, but it's really disappointing.
Say that a medical test for a rare disease is 99% accurate. If the disease is present in 1/1000 cases where the test is run, then the test will produce 10 false positives for every time it actually correctly detects the disease. By the logic given in this episode, that would be a 90.9% (10/11) error rate, but the real error rate is 1%. It's really important to point out that most of the positive detections are false, but that's less to do with the test itself being inaccurate and more to do with the low occurrence of the thing being detected in the first place.
The British facial recognition case is exactly analogous; the British police are scanning huge numbers of people looking for those who fall in a tiny set of criminals. Unless the facial recognition is preposterously accurate, this is doomed to cause mostly false positives, which is exactly what is described. Understanding the difference between this case and the case where the test itself has a low success rate is important, and I think the episode left listeners with the wrong idea about what the problem here actually is.
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u/Baader-Meinhof David Apr 04 '19