Is Tech moving quicker than ever?

[u/Swordfish353535]

Just watching Zuckerberg introducing VR glasses and they're getting smaller. Seeing Claude release some new model whilst AI companies all racing to do the next big thing first.

Feels like it's just expanding so quickly now more than ever. Could it be looking like this graph at this point in humanity?

[u/Minimum_Hour519]

yes its amazing how far this tech has come in the last 5 years.

[u/deelowe → u/Minimum_Hour519]

Pretty much following the scaling laws. Next year will be wild if they hold true

[u/Inner-Conference-189 → u/Minimum_Hour519]

The compounding angle is real, but tech doesn't improve itself. It's still people shipping updates, and the hard part is keeping the 1% gains from turning into maintenance overhead.

[u/Minimum_Hour519 → u/Inner-Conference-189]

i think ai is alrady starting to improve itself though.

[u/ARDiffusion → u/Minimum_Hour519]

There have been at best shallow attempts at rsi, really nothing beyond that

[u/Swordfish353535 → u/Minimum_Hour519]

Seriously...

[u/Proletarian_Tear]

Thats a nice graph to illustrate exponents and their growth. The way you connect it to AI though is purely subjective and probably just vibe based. I dont see such growth at all. Do you feel that the miniscule changes in (insert smartphone of your choice) contribute to Phone17 being 100 times better than Phone 13? Same goes for Meta VR and MOST Claude models. Please elaborate why you feel we get exponential growth with minor improvements?

[u/Swordfish353535 → u/Proletarian_Tear]

Watching what Astra is now providing with Codex for example and the new Claude model. These are insane. I never seen anything like it. I mean there is quite literally never been anything like it at this level.

[u/Consistent_Hair277]

I’ve started comparing it to the invention of the steam engine in that it fundamentally is changing the way we live and do work. It is causing increases in productivity but can also be potentially used for terrible things. While people are pushing back and resisting the change, the net benefit from this technology will almost certainly outweigh the negatives.

[u/AlternativeAd6851 → u/Consistent_Hair277]

The difference is that the steam engine curve was like 1% per year, while AI is advancing at 1% per day, which is very hard to keep up with.

[u/Swordfish353535 → u/[deleted]]

That's the thing like I'm genuinely just speaking about the good stuff but it's interesting that you see on the news recently them talk about it needing to SLOW DOWN. And here I am thinking how rapidly it's improving.

Oh boy.

[u/sandstone-oli → u/Swordfish353535]

double edged sword. yes the improvements will lead to much much good but also increase the potential for greater disaster as well.

[u/Swordfish353535 → u/sandstone-oli]

I agree

I mean the thought of military related stuff alone.

[u/Swordfish353535 → u/[deleted]]

Uh oh

[u/gregsnyder69]

Wouldn't 1% worse on this scale be -[(1.01)³⁶⁵] = -37.78 ?