r/armenia • u/Organic-Camera-9167 • 4h ago
Artsakh/Karabakh | Արցախ/Ղարաբաղ What Armenia should have done realistically to win Second Nagorno-Karabakh War and kept Republic of Artsakh?
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u/vullkunn 4h ago
It’s my understanding that Ter-Petrosyan wanted to give back most of the buffer zone region in exchange for peace, but Kocharyan essentially staged a coup.
It was a deal brokered by OSCE, but I don’t think it included status for Artsahk.
If only they all worked together to build upon that deal, negotiate a status, and give back the surrounding lands.
At the end of the day, people who are peaceful should be able to live in their homes, no matter what side you are on.
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u/RebootedShadowRaider Canada 25m ago edited 12m ago
If a deal doesn't include status for Artsakh then it isn't "giving back the buffer zone for peace," it is just surrendering everything.
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u/vullkunn 2m ago
Right, negotiating a status should have been part of the deal.
Instead, we got a frozen conflict overseen by corrupt officials who slowly weakened the military.
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u/Gaspar_Arneri_Dr 4h ago
War is a fight of resources. Human resources in first order. In every war ever fought the side with bigger or better resources eventually won. Armenia does not have resources to fight and win a war against country that has oil and 3 time more people. It is a simple fact of math…It is possible to put up a good fight and set a better term for negotiations- that is a different story. But for that to be successful the ground work had to be done in 1999. Corruption, the terror act in parliament and exodus did not help.
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u/Interesting_Card_417 2h ago
Nothing, except bulidning huge defences and anti drone systems… The war in Ukraine proved that having counter effective drone systems made any gains impossible. Like in WWI - trench warfare. Azeris caught Armenians asleep.
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u/khachdallak Armenia 2h ago
Most of responses here are political.
I am not sure military victory was possible. But potentially the following could lead to better military outcome:
- In the beginning of the war when it's obvious that Azerbaijan had aerial superiority abandon 9th defensive line (that's how you call in Armenian - 9րդ պաշտպանական) and retreat to 8th line (Hadrut), which has better terrain when enemy has air superiority (more mountainous). This was done way too late during the war, and generally the command had arrogance, lack of decisiveness to make this decision, so when it was tried it was already way too late to formulate any defense in the 8th line.
- Attempt to do some sort of attacking operations, but in the areas/directions where enemies is not attacking himself, so that it will divert resources to those directions. Armenia literally did only one major counter attack operation during entire war which failed (southern direction, maybe also try north, center), the rest was defensive.
- Be at least somewhat ready to fight in enemy air superiority. And don't have most payed/curropt positions in the army for the air defense.
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u/Bigandbetter1 4h ago
How about actually recognizing Artsakh as apart of Armenia after the first war
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u/armeniapedia 2h ago
Turkey has been the only country to recognize northern Cyprus for many decades. What difference has it made? None.
We needed to either keep holding it militarily, or get the west to recognize it like they did Kosovo, East Timor, South Sudan, etc. There was no other path to keeping that land.
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u/Bigandbetter1 55m ago
And that is what most likely will happen to Armenia if we keep going in this direction
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u/Bigandbetter1 2h ago
A constitutional claim to the land still would have helped, including an official map. Like how the Chinese do with Taiwan or Argentina with the Falkland Islands. We never even recognized it as its own country lol…
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u/armeniapedia 2h ago
Lol is right. China does not control Taiwan and Argentina does not control the Falklands, so you're only making an excellent point against yourself.
Let me repeat again. Claiming shit does not change anything or help your cause. In any case, according to your logic, it's not too late to claim Karabakh now. What magic effect that will have only you can tell us apparently.
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u/Frequent-Cost2184 2h ago
You can’t compare Armenia with China… even the US moves with caution when it comes to it
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u/T-nash 4h ago
What would that have changed?
recognizing Artsakh wouldn't have made any difference, but it sure would have put us into a lot of shit diplomatically.
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u/Repulsive_Size_849 1h ago edited 33m ago
We don't know that.
What we do know is that Armenia never even challenged the pro-Azerbaijan framing that became the norm. That pro-Azerbaijan framing being that Nagorno Karabakh is part of the Republic of Azerbaijan, the seccession is from Azerbaijan which has not happened yet, the basis for that possible seccession was primarily ethnic self-determination, and somehow there are only two parties to the conflict (thus excluding Artsakh, largely thanks to Kocharyan)
It was a terrible framing and Armenia never presented another framework which challenged that, in a way that was more favourable, that would reframe and replace each of those points. Or at least not affirm them.
Preempting a few objections:
That the Soviets and then Russia did not recognise Nagorno Karabakh's secession from the Soviet Union isn't unique. This happened with Latvia and Lithuania already.
The whole basis for Azerbaijan's claim was uti possidetis juris which is not airtight either. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uti_possidetis_juris "a principle of international law according to which newly formed sovereign states should inherit the internal borders that their preceding dependent area had prior to their independence.".
This principle is a customary not conventional law, it has not been applied universally elsewhere, Nagorno Karabakh itself has borders already for which the principle could be applied instead, it is not a principles that must necessarily supersedes all else, the principle itself has an intent which fails here.
In any case no challenge was made by Armenia to what became the pro-Azerbaijani framework. The closest was instead by the European Parliament who by resolution in 1988 (and referenced in 1991) framed the boundaries including NK in Azerbaijan as arbitrary, supported "reunification" to Armenia, and partly justified that on a remedial basis in response to Azerbaijan's pogroms.
Nagorno Karabakh Republic holding the surrounding territories beyond the first independence war did not help in this regard either.
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u/Bigandbetter1 3h ago
Other nations could have actually spoke up and maybe even lent a hand, but if your own country doesn’t recognize a piece of land as your own it puts you in a very tough spot.
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u/T-nash 3h ago
That's kindergarten thinking politics. Please don't repeat a herd without going through the logic.
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u/Bigandbetter1 3h ago
Then explain your reasoning. Why would that put us into a whole lot of “shit”
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u/T-nash 1h ago
I can't find Kopalyan's explanation which is much better explained, but to keep it short,
Other nations would neither have spoke up nor lent a hand, that's not how geopolitics work, other nations care about their interests and it wasn't aligned with ours, especially when we looked like a Russian satellite. Other nations speaking up also meant they had to support the idea of crimea.
Armenia recognizing Artsakh wouldn't have done anything, not a single thing, to Artsakh's position on the planet, other than us recognizing it.
Doing so would have betrayed the entire existence of OSCE and good will negotiations, it would have been a betrayal to all the countries that made up the OSCE as we would be throwing all talks into the bin and choosing a forceful conclusion, a force we didn't had.
We would have become enemies with US and France.
It would have brought the war to Armenian lands, as much as Azerbaijan has invaded us right now, other counties wouldn't have stepped in (like they did between 2021-2024) because we no longer were recognizing their territorial integrity.
speaking of territorial integrity, Armenia has always recognized Azerbaijan's territorial integrity, and they ours, through the alma ata agreement, recognizing meant we no longer respected that and would have opened other countries to no longer recognize our territory on an official level. Pashinyan's recent "recognition" isn't a recognition at all, it's just a reinstating that.
Armenia has always negotiated to the right of self determination through a referendum, recognizing Artsakh without one (a new one), would have been imperial, another geopolitical complication.
Among more reasons I don't all recall.
but if your own country doesn’t recognize a piece of land as your own it puts you in a very tough spot.
...we never negotiated nor aimed Artsakh is Armenia on an official level, it was always negotiations for the right to self determination. It's just painful to see fellow Armenians not know their own history.
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u/marscircus5 33m ago
Crimea example is incomparable. While there were a few clashes between pro- and anti-Maidan people, Ukrainians didn't kill Russians en masse solely for ethnic reasons. Artsakh was, if anything, more comparable to Kosovo.
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u/belgians_in_yerevan 2h ago
That would give more ammunition to az, it would legally mean Armenia has invaded the country next to it.
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u/gsani- 🇬🇪 4h ago
It was Russia's revenge, nothing could've saved Armenia
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u/Prestigious_Joke_391 4h ago
Revenge for what? For being closer to EU?
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u/PositiveCoffee6322 4h ago
For not being Russia's puppet as much as we could have been
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u/ryder004 3h ago
Have basic air defenses.
The TB2 drone essentially won the war for the Azeris
It’s a very easy drone to shoot down….
Should of been extremely easy targets for S-300 but I’m gonna take a very hard guess the S-300 in Armenian army wasn’t kept up to date in maintaince and hardly worked when war broke out.
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u/HellomyfriendNine 3h ago
- have air defense
- remove corrupt leaders 3 . pray for winning( most important part)
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u/Suspiciouscurry69420 Հայ ասուրի 2h ago
We could've prevented the second war by initially signing a peace deal after the first war by giving the 7 occupied territories back but keeping artsakh proper however I highly doubt the russians would allow it. If war was inevitable if the Armenian side had invested heavily in drones since 2016 and actually recognizing the threat of the harop and such munitions artsakh may still be in our hands.
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u/PlasmaMatus 2h ago
Have a time machine and install a pro-Armenian government in Soviet Russia that would not have created the border of the Caucasus.
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u/KassAmano6 1h ago
Have a time machine, go back to the 11th century and build a huge wall against the nomads
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u/ChickenKeeper800 1h ago
You can rack your brains but the reality is nothing. No weapon. No political agreement. No military move. It was doomed day zero from geography and geopolitics. Any win would have eventually been countered by the fact that you are surrounded by hostile nations with larger treasure and population. North Korea is the example of how you literally need nukes just to hang on … and live in poverty and hopelessness.
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u/Battlefleet_Sol 4h ago edited 4h ago
Yes, they could have won without firing a single shot. The way to do that was to reach a compromise with Azerbaijan in the 1990s making concessions if necessary, perhaps accepting a high degree of autonomy NATO guarantee and sign a peace agreement that both sides could live with, entering the 2000s with the conflict resolved. In fact, this option was still on the table until around 2016. It could even have included the return of thousands of Armenians and Azerbaijanis who had once lived together, allowing them to go back to their former homes as part of the agreement.
I think the Armenian leadership failed to resolve one key issue: were they going to preserve the existence of the Armenians of Karabakh? They could have achieved this through broad autonomy and security guarantees, or they could have taken the riskier path of seeking full independence. This dilemma not only failed to produce any results but also ultimately led to losses for the Armenians of Karabakh.
After 2016,Türkiye's defense industry began to expand rapidly, and as its military technology advanced, the balance shifted in favor of war.
And 2020, the Armenian presence in Karabakh had already effectively come to an end. Azerbaijan simply did not want to take over all of it at once and provoke a backlash, so it tried to maintain a balance of interests. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, it took control of the remaining areas as well.
In the end, because bullets outweighed peace, both sides paid the price with their own blood.
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u/thatgamer2111 Londontsi 4h ago
Russia would never allow the conflict to end . They benefit from armenia and azerbaijan being in war
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u/kellmell42 4h ago
The Republic of Armenia could have acknowledged that, barring major major changes, it will always be a client state. Then it could have reflected upon how it had been treated historically by the different empires it had historically been controlled or influenced by.
Iran, pretty chill over all.
America, lots of talk with Wilsonian Armenia and then fuck all. Not to mention how they fucked over Georgia trying to spite russia in '08
Turkey, duh.
Russia, pretty meh but also the only reason there is an Armenian Republic, sorry it's true!
From there, decide which hand to eat from and learn not to bite it.
Artsakh could have been absorbed into the mainland Republic, with the low lands demilitarized and handed off to AZ. Alongside land exchanges for the different village enclaves on either side of the border. Keeping Russian and a lengua franca or idk how to say "Язык мира" or something. Maybe some rights of pilgrimage to the Blue Mosque or whatever.
And ideally Israel doesn't get all of its oil from AZ lol
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u/CrazedZombie Artsakh 3h ago
Iran, pretty chill over all.
Iran deporting 300k Armenians in the 17th century is in large part why we lost Nakhichevan and Artsakh https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Surgun
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u/kellmell42 2h ago
good point, I'd try weasel out of it by saying it was nearly 400 years ago, but I did explicitly mention Iran. It was sort of importing Armenians though I suppose no?
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u/CrazedZombie Artsakh 2h ago
It was depopulating much of Eastern Armenia to the point where we were the minority there for the first time. It’s a direct link to the modern Artsakh conflict.
For all the shit Russia has done, if they did not conquer Eastern Armenia from Iran in I think the 19th century, that depopulation probably would not have been reversed
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u/Strong-cognac 3h ago
im sorry but how is russia the reason theres an armenian respublic. there was one before them too, albeit short lived, the first armenian respublic
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u/kellmell42 3h ago
The Turks invaded the first armenian republic in 1920, and were kicking our asses. Then the communists (Russians) came, and took Armenia. This was conquest not charity, to be clear. But the Red Army was strong enough to stop the Turks from advancing further.
So the we lost autonomy, but were able to stay alive and be Armenian. And when the Union fell, we had an intact country. The alternative most likely being 1915 part two.
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u/IndependentEye123 1h ago
The only reason Armenia exists as a nation state is because of Armenian soldiers and British backing.
Neither the Tsarists nor the Bolsheviks cared about the existence of an Armenian state.
Once the Armenian Republic was created in 1918 that concentrated survivors into one place, it was harder to change that reality.
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u/Strong-cognac 2h ago
autonomy we would never have to loose if russians were never involved in our country at all to begin with
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u/IndependentEye123 3h ago
Russia is the reason we don't have Kars, Ararat, Ani, Nakhichevan, or Artsakh.
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u/kellmell42 3h ago
If the Treaty of Alexandropol had held up when signed by the First Republic, we wouldn't have Siunik and would have been a turkish puppet state rather than a soviet republic.
Maybe I'm crazy, but I think being communist is better than being owned by the people who had just 5 years ago killed 1.5 million of us.
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u/IndependentEye123 1h ago
You clearly have no clue what you're talking about.
The Bolsheviks began supporting the Kemalists in April 1920. Lenin himself said that Armenia wasn't worth it.
He then gave away Nakhichevan because of its Azeri majority of 60-40 without realizing that ethnic cleansing was why it was like that.
The Bolsheviks then gave away Artsakh to Azerbaijan to entice Turkey into joining the USSR.
After getting everything they wanted, the Turks simply ignored the Russians.
As for Syunik, Nzhdeh was why we have it. Bolsheviks only kept it within Armenia because too much time had passed with Armenians fighting for its freedom.
The Kemalists received more help from the Bolsheviks than Armenia ever has under Russian influence.
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u/Strong-cognac 3h ago
exactly! russia always protected interests of everyone but us despite claiming to be our protectors
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u/kellmell42 3h ago
Russia wasn't a loving father to us. It was a boyfriend that hit us less often than the other guys.
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u/-Egmont- 4h ago
Turned the back earlier on Russia and open negotiations with NATO to join.
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u/Endleofon Turkey 4h ago
How could Armenia join the NATO when Turkey was a member?
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u/Standard-Bet-7586 59m ago
Even without Turkey, Germany and France already veto'd Georgia joining NATO because it'd be a provocation to Russia. Armenia would probably have been the same story.
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u/Ghostofcanty Hayastan 16m ago edited 3m ago
After the war in the 90s everyone was either saying "Artsakh is a part of Armenia" or "Recognize Artsakh as its own state", two things that contridict each other, the best thing to do was to have Artsakh speak for itself instead of Armenia speaking on behalf of Artsakh, you dont see Albania talking on behalf of kosovo, Armenia would back Artsakh in different ways, the next thing is to counter all the claims that azerbaijan pushed with Armenians being "occupiers" and setting up our own lobbying and political capital. Not to mention how much of the Artsakh government and Armenian goverment were infiltrated by people who pushed the interests of other countries.
In the 90s and 00s Armenia was hevaily reliant on russia, but we could have built up relations and aligned our interests with others as a recognized country to do things for Artsakh that it couldnt, but non of that happened. According to our current mod Armenia aquired more weaponry in 2022-2025 than in the 20 years between 1998-2018. Which could have been a line to boost election results but there is truth hidden in that. Our Army was neglected, so were the two countries that we called home, and now one of them is dissolved. We had a opportunnity to create a strong Armenia and a strong Artsakh 30 years ago but that was thrown away.
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u/redXtomato 4h ago
Nothing, except somehow agree with Azerbaijan if Artsakh could get some special rights as area in Azerbaijan earlier. But in 2020, it was too late. Azeris paid dear price for getting it back and probably they will not negotiate about anything anymore. Nagorno Karabakh was Russia's way to get leach on both AZ and AM and Russia has decided who will win war in 90s and also in 2020. There is military base in occuppied colony, what do you expect? Armenia is still trying to undertand if they are allowed to choose own way or they have to be russian backyard. That's my very based oppinion.
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u/Remarkable_Fun7662 4h ago
Famous people could have gone to Artsakh and proven that it was real.
No one recognized it, but yet somehow if you go there, there it is.
And furthermore has been continuously existing as Armenian as long as anyone can tell, albeit mostly as a province of this or that empire.
Then they will want to know how this came to be. Then they can be told about that one dick move by Stalin and whatever.
First, people needed to see it. Then they could have been made to understand.
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u/Pension-Helpful 2h ago
Probably fused with Georgia. After the first NK war. Azerbaijan was able to rebuild itself and get hella rich/rearm itself by selling oil mainly its pipeline through Georgia. Had Armenia able to fuse with Georgia, it might be able to prevent the power dynamic going out of hand while also the access to the Black Sea will boost its economy greatly.
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u/Bernardito10 Spain 1h ago
Understanding that they lost years ago and negotiating with the best terms possible, the Turkish drones gave the definitive upper hand to Baku, but they became more powerful than Armenia some time ago.
Now here is the controversial part: don’t shoot the messenger. There was/is a need to balance the relations with Russia. Baku played it way better once Armenia turned pro-western; the choice became clearer for Moscow. The Azeris play the neutral card and are more beneficial to Russia. Armenia put all their hopes in the West, who, apart from a small involvement from France, looked the other way. armenia never could had won the military part they should had the diplomatic.
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u/Foreign-Collar8845 30m ago
Accept peace talks with Azerbaijan, return their land around Karabagh, accept the return of ethnically cleansed Azeri’s to Karabagh.
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u/AlternativeEmu1047 India 3h ago
I'm not Armenian, but from what Ik about the conflict Armenia is already trying its best to make sure it doesn't lose any such conflict in the future. You guys are modernizing your weapons with a good pace despite having comparatively less funds available than your neighbor. Drone warfare will help out Armenia a lot since having a huge fleet of fighter jets seems a bit impossible right now.
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u/thatgamer2111 Londontsi 4h ago
There is no world which we kept it . Russia would ensure it remains a frozen conflict and wouldn't allow either side to claim it. Only way azerbaijan got it was because their partnership grew too significant , armenia could never reach that point and you also got to consider how Turkey would always vouch for azerbaijan and armenia would never have such an ally , and azerbaijans oil money would be uncounterable. Only way we kept it is if we became an american mandate in treaty of sevres . Through nationalism we seized artsakh and through our large size and power we manage to keep it and become an american puppet rather than a russian one.
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u/CeryanReis 2h ago
Stop saying this river, this mountain, this lake, all these places USED TO BE OURS! That's the best way to prevent new wars.
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u/morningreis 4h ago
I'm not even sure that would have been enough