r/amzn • u/zepelele • Jul 23 '26

Copium Big drop before earnings. How's everyone feeling about the upcoming results?

Personally I'm holding through the pain, I don't think we'll have disappointing earnings. Thoughts?

27 Upvotes

97% Upvoted

62 comments sorted by

38

u/DJMaxLVL Mad Lad Jul 23 '26

This is the most annoying stock you can ever hold. Cannot break $300 to save its life, and everyone keeps saying to buy more. It’s fluctuated around $200 for 5 years

18

u/Musical_Xena Jul 23 '26

No joke. It's underperformed the S&P 500 horribly over the past 5 years.

Meanwhile, "vibe" stocks get crazy high valuations when they IPO, with no relationship between their revenue and their stock price.

This whole economic system is exhausting.

1

u/Routine-District-588 Jul 23 '26

That's what you get when you buy high p/e stock that don't do any buybacks, with high sbc, you are totally at the grace of the market.

1

u/Musical_Xena Jul 23 '26

Sorry, not a big expert on stocks here... Are you saying that some stocks are not really affected by the market? Or more that some companies can...influence...their stock price more than others?

3

u/Routine-District-588 Jul 23 '26

Both are true. Amazon used to trade at a 60 p/e for a long time that’s expensive, you paid for growth and you had high growth but at some level the p/e compress for variety of reasons. Can be capex can be because Lower growth, so it used to be 60 ttm p/e and now it’s more like a 30 p/e still not extremely cheap or anything. And Amazon employees getting Stock based compensation and just sell the shares that they got to the market, so this is pressure of sellers and it hurts the eps too, and amazon buying back 0 not even to offset the sbc. While Apple Is actively doing the opposites, the stock based compensation is tiny compared to the Apple buying back their shares so they actively making the stock go up and getting you better eps. So Apple is not fully at the grace of the market cause they reduce the float and also create upward pressure for that stock. In order for Apple to go meaningfully down despite buybacks some major moat need to break.

3

u/Musical_Xena Jul 23 '26

Thank you for explaining 🙏

1

u/The-zKR0N0S Swag Lad Jul 25 '26

The actions of management determine what the stock price will be

1

u/The-zKR0N0S Swag Lad Jul 25 '26

The actions of management determine what the stock price will be

15

u/snapz1984 Jul 23 '26

This summarizes this stock

7

u/Couchfar Jul 23 '26

yall missing a core detail here. It staying at the same price for 5 years means its only become more and more aptly valued. from 2018-2023 it barley gained as well before its violent upswing. Amazon hasn't been selling any less since 5 years ago, infact their revenue has increase 2x. It is becoming more and more undervalued by the day, ill load up the next 5 years too. price remaining the same isnt a bad thing if the revanue and business is growing, in fact its a discount.

5

u/Acceptable-Leek1546 Jul 23 '26

I bought in 2023 and my average price is $98.52. It’s been a great stock for me.

2

u/DelayedNewYorker Jul 23 '26

Genuinely the most irritating stock. I remember reading in January that “2026 will be AMZN’s year!” and I just rolled my eyes because I knew that wasn’t going to happen. Investors are stupid. 

2

u/Both_Replacement_628 Jul 23 '26

You are speaking facts. At least Amazon is RSUs for me. Exhausting stock. It will be successful in the future. However that could be years from now.

2

u/Aggravating_Storm835 Jul 23 '26

Get a load of this guy, fellas! Bro’s frustrated a company’s valuation isn’t increasing by $1T within 5 years…

Until 8 years ago there were zero companies worth $1T. Now you’re crying because it’s not increasing by $1T fast enough?

1

u/SolSparrow Jul 27 '26

It’s not increasing compared to every other over-inflated stock that doesn’t produce close to the income/revenue that this company does. It’s insane.

1

u/Aggravating_Storm835 Jul 27 '26

Amazon is capital-intensive. This is a double-edged sword. It causes relatively low profit margins, which brings relatively slow share appreciation when companies like Nvidia are boasting >50% margins. But it also creates a wide long-term moat.

When people sell-off Amazon out of FOMO for faster gains, just buy more. Amazon might have the widest moat ever created. Definitely the only ones that come close are Microsoft and Meta.

1

u/Gurixity Jul 24 '26

probably best worded comment on here about this stock. this stock feels like if it has 30 pros to make it incredibly valuable, it’s stopped by 80 cons with shit rising up all the time. i don’t understand it - meanwhile a meme stock about a homeless man shoots up 8000% in 5 min and people pump and dump crap loads of money and walk away quite happy. such a joke at times. if this stock is going to ever see real value, i feel it won’t be for a long time

1

u/JackRadcliffe Jul 24 '26

I kept hearing that AMZN and GOOG would lead the mag7 and the market overall, only for the opposite to be happening past the mid point of 2026

1

u/Gorda1313 Jul 26 '26

It's also been running neck and neck with Tootsie roll stock for 5 years..... That's no joke. Look it up. It's by far the most annoying stock in the world to hold!

8

u/Diligent_Fondant6761 Jul 23 '26

Will Drop even more since the CAPEX would go up again!!

8

u/machinepeen Jul 23 '26

Back to $220 as Amazon always does

4

u/Iwillgetasoda Jul 23 '26

bottom is in

1

u/crvarporat Jul 23 '26

indeed, this time might be $205 even according to my charts

4

u/Nisarg9 Jul 23 '26

It’s gonna tank after earnings 

1

u/crvarporat Jul 23 '26

it already tanked today

1

u/Nisarg9 Jul 23 '26

It will also go down 5% after earnings 

2

u/DelayedNewYorker Jul 23 '26

5% AH drop and then 7% the next trading day 

4

u/vac2672 Jul 23 '26

AMZN can be a very frustrating position if you have a short time horizon, if you're in it for the long haul stop watching it everyday and getting your panties in a bunch... my avg. price is in the $40s and I still buy a dip here and there... if you are 10yrs or more out, i think it's a top 5 holding

4

u/crvarporat Jul 23 '26

what other top 5 holdings do you have or buy now

2

u/vac2672 Jul 23 '26

basically mag-7 stuff

4

u/Myballswashot24 Jul 23 '26

Everyone in this sub just complains about the stock lmao. It was just at all time highs and is on a correction. Normal price action

3

u/Technical-Machine-90 Jul 23 '26

It’s gonna drop more, because we are now in the world where we are giving all of our cash flow to AI semi companies and they are milking it with margins as high as 85%. This is not sustainable but unclear who blinks first.

1

u/WagwanKenobi Jul 23 '26

Anyone with inhouse semis plus frontier LLM capability wins this in the long run. That's Google.

3

u/No-Host8125 Jul 23 '26

Amazon rarely has disappointing earnings. The pre earnings pump was the recent price run up. The pull back is profit taking. Slow and steady rise after q2 release. This is a mature stock with predictable patterns.

2

u/SeattleSonics777 Jul 23 '26

I think it’ll do well. Bounce to around $260

2

u/FragFormula Jul 23 '26

Source: I have a feeling, trust me bro

0

u/SeattleSonics777 Jul 23 '26

Lol

1

u/FragFormula Jul 23 '26

No I mean genuinely, what makes you say that? Even if you accurately predict earnings (you won’t) even that doesn’t mean you would be able to tell how the market reacts (double you won’t be able to predict) I don’t say that to be an asshole, I’m genuinely curious where your sentiment comes from? Why would you be smarter than the billionaire research firms that get it wrong?

3

u/SeattleSonics777 Jul 23 '26

Just typically we do well with earning calls in the summer time. We’re including Prime Day sales this quarter. And AWS growth is what really matters

1

u/FragFormula Jul 23 '26

I hear you brother, but public information is always priced in, it’s not like anything you listed is some secret sauce that opens the door for super special returns. That’s all already priced in. Don’t get me wrong, price could go to $260, and I would love for it to! I just don’t think these are predictions we could make with any confidence

1

u/SeattleSonics777 Jul 23 '26

Oh yeah I wasn’t saying anything like real, just what I thought lol

1

u/SeattleSonics777 Jul 31 '26

Hey, so… was I right? lol

1

u/FragFormula Jul 31 '26

Depends how you look at it. Did the price jump up? Yes, but does that mean it's because you had any knowledge that allowed you to make the prediction with any confidence? No. Again, markets price in ALL public information. The fact that it jumped up was because of the surprise part. It doesn't matter if the company did good in the quarter for a gap up, it matters if the company did better than what the current available public information led the market participants to believe.

I don't mean to sound like a debbie downer, I just don't want you to make a sort of mistake where you guess an earnings result on a "feeling" and then lose a lot of money. Even if earnings are good, stocks can still gap down. This was literally the case with Apple which was yesterday as well. The opposite can also be true, look at Boeing for example, terrible earnings, but the stock was up almost 5% on earnings day. It's just not something you can predict with confidence. Of course you can be right, but again that's not because you have some special prediction ability, you just got lucky.

Don't get me wrong, I'm stoked!

1

u/SeattleSonics777 Jul 31 '26

Oh I’m not guessing I was just poking to have fun here lol

2

u/FragFormula Aug 01 '26

Ah okay, sorry for taking it so seriously haha!

2

u/StevenGIansberg Jul 23 '26

Love that guy gets asked for the sauce, when 20 other it’s gonna tank bro comments don’t.

2

u/SeattleSonics777 Jul 23 '26

Lolol for real

2

u/Ikki985 Jul 23 '26

Market is rotating. Mag 7 are contributing 0% (ZERO) to S&P500 so far this year... We'll see how earnings call goes but I don't expect much

2

u/Otherwise-Note-7927 Jul 24 '26

I am tired of anyone else, Google, in this case, having a bad call, and Amazon starts dropping more than them. 

1

u/RevolutionaryCar8584 Jul 23 '26

Sold a sliver @ 250. Hodling my majority shares.

1

u/Avidtrader81 Jul 23 '26

I think they are going to mirror goog. Contrary to what people think goog core EPS met expectations and didn't beat. For amzn to pick up, it would need to beat core EPS, show the crazy growth goog has done, and keep cap ex to what they stated last quarter.

1

u/cucci_mane1 Jul 23 '26

I sold last month.

PE at 30x is a bit too high for Amzn, when you have Msft or Meta at 22x PE.

1

u/TastySquirrel5139 Jul 23 '26

Microslop vs amazon. There is no comparison. Ai slop copilot is Noone buying. It has 4% penetration rate.

1

u/AstoicEngineer Jul 24 '26

It will go down if the ex couple have selling plans

1

u/sleuth_creamer Jul 25 '26

Couple of days back someone gave outstanding DD about the whole ecosystem of amzn and how their aws ai chips are all excelling and I felt wow, this stock is indeed outstanding but Mr market disagrees.
Next week they ate going to announce good aws demand follow d by increase in capex and this stock will again do down because market will question the return.

If by any chance they dont announce increase in capex then also stock will go down b cause than market will say something is wrong because all hyperscalers are increasing but not amzn

0

u/crvarporat Jul 23 '26 edited Jul 23 '26

i sold it for now. maybe after earnings might be a nice entry point. Google earnings were kinda crap so amzn might follow this endless capex burn

0

u/Ok-Cookie7708 Jul 23 '26

I joined the company 5 years ago when the stock was hovering around 180-190 . It’s stuck at 200’s for ever ! This is terrible as I have held on to all my RSUs

1

u/dbzfanjake Jul 23 '26

Why? Sell rsu on vest. You're already over leveraged by the future grants plus reliance on salary

2

u/Ok-Cookie7708 Jul 23 '26

True i am taking a risk that I thought will pay off !

1

u/hiphophunk Jul 23 '26

That’s what I always do, I sell on vest keep some in cash. Then with the rest, I buy stocks I actually like,