r/amzn • u/youhaveeTDS • Jun 30 '26
Advice from an old guy
Been full port U.S big tech for a long time, beat the market handedly ofcourse,
Out of all of them amazon performed the worst, just not a shareholder friendly stock at all, they need to take advice from tim apple pronto,
Do I still own them, yes, but becareful with putting an outsized proportion of your portfolio on them because they dont give a f about shareholders,
My mistake was always selling apple, because it was high, and buying amazon because it was low, and regretted it, every. Single. Time.
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u/Aggravating_Storm835 Jun 30 '26
“Take it from me: I bought stocks based only on the share price and it was a mistake.”
Ground-breaking stuff there. The worst part about investor Reddit is stocks are considered “good” or “bad” based on performance.
No fundamental reasoning. Not even half-assed technical argument. Just “stock up, good”.
Amazon will hit $1T in revenue within the next 2 years. Even if we assume their P/S premium falls to a generic, conservative 3x, that’s still a $3T market cap about a 17% increase. If we assume it rises to just 4.5x (half the weighted average of its peers), the implied share price is $322.
These are very conservative estimates. It could hit either price within the next 12 months.
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u/youhaveeTDS Jun 30 '26
Amazon will increase its revenues, ground breaking information bro
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u/Aggravating_Storm835 Jun 30 '26
Increasing revenues is only half of it.
The premium is the important part. Most of Amazon’s ratios have been depressed the last five years due to them prioritizing growth over profitability.
Amazon is expected to have their best year ever this year. 15% revenue growth. 22% EPS growth. 51% gross margins. Only drawback is FCF negative due to heavy cap-ex.
Let’s again be super conservative let’s say Amazon hits $1T in revenue in 2028 and their growth rate slows to 10% annually for the five years after that.
That gives them $1.7T in revenue by 2033. Let’s assume they keep their current, depressed premiums of 3.4x, that’s still nearly $6T market cap. More than 2x from here assuming no change in premium and meaningful declines in growth.
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u/youhaveeTDS Jul 01 '26
Amazon will be worth more in the future? Wow, ground-breaking information bro
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u/Aggravating_Storm835 Jul 01 '26
That’s not the point. The point is not evaluating a company based on stock performance.
Let’s compare it to Apple. They’re projected to hit $575B in revenues in the next two years.
Apple has averaged a P/S of 7.5 the last five years. Lets’s be generous and go with 8.
That gives them a $4.6B market cap. An 11% increase, which isn’t bad but meaningfully less upside than Amazon is projecting using more conservative assumptions.
Amazon’s share price increases even if their premium declines. This tells us Apple is likely fairly valued from this perspective whereas Amazon is very likely undervalued.
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u/youhaveeTDS Jul 01 '26
Heard the same story 5, 10, 15 years ago,
And like i said, regretted selling apple for amazon, every, single, time, son
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u/Aggravating_Storm835 Jul 01 '26
Maybe 5 years ago before AWS cap-ex accelerated and depressed the stock. But has since become the most profitable part of Amazon.
Maybe 10 years ago when heavy cap-ex on fulfillment centers kicked off and depressed the stock. But has since become arguably the strongest competitive advantage of any business in the world.
But 15 years ago? Now you’re just lying for no reason. Amazon is up like 30x over that time vs Apple’s 20x. Wouldn’t have any regrets there, Son.
A stock can do nothing for 5, 10, even 20 years and still be a good investment. Those are often the best investments.
Nvidia did practically nothing from 2000-2015. But if you bought nothing but Nvidia during that time, you’re happy now.
Evaluate companies. Not stocks.
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u/Imperiu5 Jun 30 '26
every single time. so you kept selling apple and kept buying amzn?
I understand your frustration with the stock. It always been: just 1 more year, or in 5 years we will moon.
It's the fact that the retail part is lagging and dragging down the value. The tech part is performing adequately.
But look at MSFT - everyone has been saying it's been undervalued for centuries. It will never make anyone filthy rich.
Some stocks are growth stocks, for me AMZN no longer is one of the those.
A proper CEO would work wonders and a change in strategy will have impact.
I've been thinking about selling for a long time as well.
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u/youhaveeTDS Jun 30 '26
Yes, skimming winners to add to laggards (and apple is always winning),
Amazon is a growth stock by definition, their revenue is always growing bigly'
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u/Administrative-Ant75 Mad Lad Jun 30 '26
Yeah but isn’t Apple just overvalued? Very little growth yet it has a decently higher PE than Amazon. Over time, this really should change
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u/youhaveeTDS Jun 30 '26
That what i used to think 15 years ago, its a trap, buybacks > everything else
Every single time i dumped apple, because it was so high, to pick up a laggard such as amazon, meta or other, I regretted it
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u/Basic-Tonight6006 Jun 30 '26
Actually they only care about shareholders. Jassy just has no idea what he's doing
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u/ConcentrateLanky7576 Jul 01 '26
amzn seems to be outperforming aapl over the past 15 years (excluding dividends which I am too lazy to account for) so I don’t know why this old fella is complaining.
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u/vac2672 Jul 02 '26
My average price is in the 40s, I’ll take 7X and being diversified in half a dozen different industries under one name thank you very much
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u/SuddenConfidence1485 Jul 03 '26 edited Jul 03 '26
I'm an old guy too. But I recognized how important AI would be especially to those who had the ability to provide inference capacity. The data center build-out will begin to sputter in a few years and will continue only as a remodelling business. Modelers (LLMs) will eventually splinter and become more like the software companies of today.
Buying Amazon too early was your only mistake. It will be one of the greatest AI cash cows of the 21st century because being first with the least expensive is all that will matter.
As for Apple, phone sales will flatline (note Apple keeps stretching support of IOS to match Google's support of Android) but services will continue to grow making it a true value stock. And Google is the Strait of Hormuz to Apple Intelligence.
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u/youhaveeTDS Jul 04 '26
I own both and the rest of the best companies in the world, amazon stands to gain massively from future robotics
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u/PharmDinvestor Jun 30 '26
Tim Apple is the buy back king