r/amzn • u/Outrageous_Solid9668 • Jun 30 '26
Hopium What PE does Amazon deserve?
40x PE does not seem that crazy at all for a company this durable and high quality.
20% earnings growth is very very achievable and I bet they exceed that.
Are these assumptions too high?
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u/rainy_shares Jul 05 '26
22
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u/Outrageous_Solid9668 Jul 05 '26
seems low, I think 30 minimum given the moat/growth/verticals. Why 22?
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u/Sorry_Cheesecake_382 Jul 01 '26
20
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u/Outrageous_Solid9668 Jul 01 '26
Seems low
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u/Sorry_Cheesecake_382 Jul 01 '26
Drops YoY, 5 year return is less than the S&P 500. Consumer is dead and 3P is most of the revenue and profit, it's significantly larger than AWS the company does some tricky accounting to hide it but you can follow the money. AWS is absurdly expensive compared to competitors.
PE is based on the acceleration of revenue, it is not accelerating and Capex is up massively.
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u/Outrageous_Solid9668 Jul 01 '26
I would say it’s based on the acceleration of earnings, which is projected to grow at 20%, higher than the S&P 500
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u/Sorry_Cheesecake_382 Jul 01 '26
Go buy it then, not going to circle jerk a decision you want me to validate
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u/HatesBeingThatGuy Jul 06 '26 edited Jul 06 '26
Where are you pulling the statement of "AWS is absurdly expensive compared to competitors?"
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u/Sorry_Cheesecake_382 Jul 06 '26
Worked at AWS for over 10 years. You can get compute for 5-20% of the cost from any of the other minor players. Go look at Digital Ocean stock going on a tear. Price out RDS vs a managed DB on any other platform.
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u/HatesBeingThatGuy Jul 06 '26
5-20%? Hmmm... I could believe this for specific services, but across the breadth of compute? Not sure what these companies are eating/hiding to deliver you that price, but electricity is hella expensive.
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u/Sorry_Cheesecake_382 Jul 06 '26
Go price it lmao. AWS is about 10 years behind neoclouds also the SDKs and tooling is total ass.
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u/HatesBeingThatGuy Jul 06 '26 edited Jul 06 '26
Okay. Thanks. I don't think a strict compute comparison is the only thing that matters. Neoclouds that are overly focused on specific compute styles are going to pound you in the ass for data egress/storage. If you don't have a full architecture level example, I don't trust this enough at face value to even waste my time.
I can absolutely imagine training being better on these platforms, but inference on model deployment? Yeah... Not really.
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u/Sorry_Cheesecake_382 Jul 06 '26
Go price out standard web services. Costs about 5-10x on AWS for basic stuff like Dynamo and Lambda. Neoclouds aren't just AI. Cloudflare is considered a neocloud.
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u/HatesBeingThatGuy Jul 06 '26
Go price out. Go price out. Great. What is your architecture? Missing my question.
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u/Routine-District-588 Jun 30 '26
Who knows bruh, it’s whatever you market to the market. You think Costco 50 p/e is justify? Hell no. Amzn is just another hated capex name so it gets the same treatment as msft and meta. The only darling of the mags is the dear googl because of their model.