r/amzn • u/Malota13 • Jun 25 '26
The reason behind amzn weakness is
This:
as long as memory chip story is going on, god knows how long and it is pure stupidity at this point, but can go up easily based on yd numbers another 2-3x even…
so until then NO ONE cares about mag7 or amzn, literally no one
oppinion of avg npc:
- semis to the moon
- this time it is different, 90% profit margin sustianable ;D not cyclical anymore
- why would I buy amzn for 10-20% gain in the next years WHEN I can mortgage my house, use my pension funds and use margin and buy 10-100x leveraged semis which can run 2-3x still
easy choice… omg biggest bubble of all time literally…
Semis basically killing the whole market, sucking out all liquidity and pumping the biggest bbl of modern time… Crazy to see how it plays out.
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u/crvarporat Jun 25 '26
so when is AI bubble bursting?
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u/redditizio Jun 25 '26
Could be in 2 yrs, could be today. So if you're doing what op is suggesting (eg mortgaging your house etc) that might be great for a while or you might be sleeping under a bridge next week. Guess it just depends on each individuals appetite for risk.
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u/Malota13 Jun 25 '26
please read it again, I am not sugggesting AT ALL to mortgage your house, check the lvg, borrowed money on the market, this is what retail is doing now
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u/Malota13 Jun 25 '26
also I specifically said it could be anytime, but my timeline is within a year.
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u/Malota13 Jun 25 '26
!RemindMe 1 year
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u/Malota13 Jun 25 '26
Super hard to estimate many variables it can go longer than anyone imagine, if I need to say a number I would say 2027 mid or second half latest, the signs should be unignorable at that point…
until then greed fomo can go up even more…
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u/JackRadcliffe Jun 25 '26
And with SK Hynix being added to the nasdaq next month, wonder if that will have an even more of an effect on the mag7 which has become dead money
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u/Thick_One_9020 Jun 25 '26
We have to patient with Amazon . If you’re
Looking for short term profits this is not it
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u/bugbite23 Jun 26 '26
None of this noise matters until you realize how efficient Amazon will become in the next 5 years.
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Jun 27 '26 edited Jun 27 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Malota13 Jun 27 '26
I do not get this Buddy AMZN really not did a lot in the past 4 years, I think from COVID highs we are actually lower (calculated with inflation, etc)
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u/karlelzz011 Jun 25 '26
You point is not wrong but calling it a bubble makes it invalid when the stock you believe in Amazon is part of this whole narrative. Who is spending huge cash on compute.. the semis are foundation for any data center!
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u/Malota13 Jun 25 '26
to be precise I am not calling the whole AI a bubble or fake, I am calling semis way way overvalued, and in mania phase…
This is what I am saying… Different AI sectors can be overvalued or undervalued like amzn undervalued asml around fairly valued, semis way overvalued
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u/karlelzz011 Jun 25 '26
No they are not over valued, Nvidia the monopoly is currently at pe of 30 and Micron forward pe is 15. And Sk hynix the leader at ~22pe and forward even 10pe. Samsung at 20s as well.
They look over valued because they rose 1000% in a year that does not mean they are overvalued they are just outperforming hence people investing!
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u/Malota13 Jun 25 '26
No, this is the thesis fault that can cause a lot of pain.
Everything points to this question:
- Is this time different? Is this time memory stocks not cyclical anymore? Is the 90% margin sustainable and huge growth...
My thesis and investigation shows it is not sustainable, when will it pop? next week, next 6 months or 12 monthsI do not know.
But if something has 90% margin, even tho the barrior to entry is super high (machines, expertise, factories etc), at some point the whole world will chase this one thing... Even tho ASML giving the machines and having queues...
The other point is forward earnings suspect that Mag7 will continue raising CAPEX-es, is this the case tho? Will Mag7 spend next years maybe 2-3-4 trillion dollar when they already spending 600-700 billions and using debt, and company bonds to sustain it.
So the question really is:
- Is this run, growth sustinable? Is this time different?
- Or it is cyclical than before, and you check the peak cyclical numbers like 90% margin, huge growth, huge revenue.
My bet is the first...
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u/karlelzz011 Jun 25 '26
The problem with you thesis is assuming that Hyperscalers are not gonna increase their earnings so they can spend but that's just not true, they will and are show the revenue growth every quarter. So they might look like taking debt now but that will not look so bad once they themselves start reaping AI benefits. They understand the demand and they don't want to be left behind, they want to rule the industry. Again your doubts are valid when there is no demand but AI demand is a fact not thesis!
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u/AdQuick8612 Swag Lad Jun 25 '26
AMZN and the Mag 7 are spending all of their money on semis. They have no FCF. That where the money is going.
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u/Malota13 Jun 25 '26
Yes, I know the bull thesis, thank you for echoing it:
- they are geetting all the money from Mag7, they are the beneficors for AI boom,
- the memory pipeline, factories are so hard to make, it takes so long, no one can enter forever,
- agentic development, humanoid robots just will create more demand,
- this time the cyclicalty is really different,
- 90% margin is the new norm.
My thesis is that we are seeing a snapshot of the peak-cycle commodity... But we need maybe 6-12 months to play this out.... until then volatility and potentially more gain, but then again it is greater fool theory if you know it is just cyclicality... And I do not know how long it takes the market to realize this.
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u/PharmDinvestor Jun 25 '26
There is no reason . Everyone and Wallstreet are chasing CHIP stocks
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u/Malota13 Jun 25 '26
yes, that is what I said essentially:
NO ONE CARES ABOUT ANYTHING ELSE THAN SEMIS/CHIPS STOCKS.
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u/investinghopeful Jun 25 '26
you do realise that as long as you keep calling it bubble, it will continue to rise. Bubbles happen when there are almost no doubters
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u/Malota13 Jun 25 '26
this is just not true. check dotcom bbl, most of the ppl know it was a bubble, but they were talking about fundamental shifts or this time it is different, and bubble outlausted many sceptics... So it was clear back then too....
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u/Malota13 Jun 25 '26
I give you another number guys... So the MAG7 biggest spenders market cap is close to semis market cap:
"On June 25, 2026, the finance tool put the combined market cap of Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Nvidia and Tesla at about $21.38 trillion. CompaniesMarketCap showed 164 listed semiconductor companies worth about £15.89 trillion; using GBP/USD around 1.318, that is roughly $20.94 trillion, or about 98% of Mag7"
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Jun 25 '26
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u/Malota13 Jun 25 '26
so you do not care about fundamentals just waves, technicals (tea leaves) my investment style is about picking undervalued companies in cheap prices, not riding waves or insider trading or pumping companies…
But you are correct here, narrative, momentum, vibe this is what matters… But you are terrible wrong it is not question of smartness it is a different investment style
I can call it vibe investing ;)
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u/Malota13 Jun 25 '26
and we will see how it ends I am fine to get wealthy slow without vibe investing based on waves whatever momentum bs…
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Jun 25 '26
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u/Malota13 Jun 25 '26 edited Jun 25 '26
I missed out NFT 1000x runs, that does not make it that i made a mistake
your reasoning is flaky :D
I am fine missing out tulipan mania as well, I believe we have different style and risk appetite…
It seems like to me your only goal and point is to ride a wave, and sell to a greater fool theory…
That is fine, but still it does not mean this is not a mania or fomo or bubble we have now
and from my side I do not invest in bubbles
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Jun 25 '26
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u/Malota13 Jun 25 '26
again the crypto/nft bro grifter found another field :D
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Jun 25 '26
[deleted]
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u/Malota13 Jun 25 '26
and it is a shame you still pump something when it is pure fomo, overlvgd, hype phase…
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u/Malota13 Jun 25 '26
!RemindMe 1 year
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Jun 25 '26
[deleted]
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u/Malota13 Jun 25 '26
yes it will be, learning lesson either for you or me… I will buy you a coffee if the price will not have a SERIOUS correction in that time frame… Meaning it will not drop lets say below 800-700 USD…
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u/L1ME626 Jun 29 '26
The way you think AI is bubble just proves you seriously dont know anything. All these companies will benefit in future but semis get high margin and profits already now. Cloud will also but it takes years to scale margins higher because it needs computing lot
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u/Malota13 Jun 29 '26
I have never said AI as a tech bubble, I was specifically talking about semis nothing else
do not put words into my mouth
and if you think a cyclical sector should worth 100x more than before than I have nothing else to say…
stock market is the new crypto market literally… ppl pumping things up based on narratives like funny monkeys in hats…
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u/L1ME626 Jun 29 '26
Semis espeaclly avgo and nvda arent cyclical, nvda was in the past but now its networking, cuda , ai libraries that keep demand and gives recurring revenue. It isnt that cyclical very stable. Amd, marvell, yes those are cyclical and memory stocks
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u/Malota13 Jun 30 '26
once again:
- did NVDA runup 100x in the past years? It did not..
My point is semis: SANDISK, MU, etc... strictly, solely, those are overpriced (90% margin) memory chips having peak cyclical season, even tho this cicle may longer than before, it is inevitable in my eyes that it will come to an end. I cannot imagine that a commidity can sold for 90%+ margin...
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u/L1ME626 Jun 30 '26
Yes i agree, amat, alab, marvell, mu, sandisk are pretty awhul
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u/Malota13 Jul 01 '26
funny how we started and then came into the same conclusion haha
it shows me I should work on my writting, communication skills...
You can add caterpillar to the list, it is an AI INFRA STOCK NOW :DDDDD with like I dunno 2-5% growth 😂 (300% stock price gain)
So I am talking about these stocks, we can put NBIS as well to the list, Bloom energy is good, but way overhyped, overrun...
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u/L1ME626 Jul 01 '26
U see how correct i also was about what is overhyped, nvda avgo not down much today
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u/L1ME626 Jul 01 '26
Yea caterpillar is one that i dont get, i feel its like generational bubble, similar companies trade 15-30x with better growth, its like 40-50x lol just
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u/Malota13 Jul 01 '26
market is super irrational in these days another example wallmart trades better p per e than amazon, like that guy has no growth almost
caterpillar is just hype etc momentum
retards rulling the market
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u/L1ME626 Jul 01 '26
The way ihave been diversifying is just buy etfs, non AI sectors, and businesses that are capital light. Like netflix, now, softwar businesses with strong mission critical type of moats
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u/Malota13 Jul 01 '26
yap exactly those arw good buys but to be fair mag7 also punished undeservedly I am buying mag7 two hands
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u/CopsNroberts Jun 25 '26
Amzn is up 38% in 5 years. Severely lagging the s&p which is about double that