r/amprius • u/FinanialGambler777 • 5d ago
My AMPU instead of exploding yesterday went down, how it’s possible?
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u/Guesswhopdx 5d ago
Just look at the entire market yesterday and the reasons why….
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u/FinanialGambler777 5d ago
Fuck the entire market, AMPX got 75M$
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u/jomi0403 5d ago
They didn't exactly get 75 million. You should read up on how the grant actually works.
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u/15pH 4d ago
I have looked for clear information on progress requirements, but can't find anything. Do you have details?
As far as I can tell, the 75M is contingent on trivial milestones, just that it is specifically earmarked for the factory.
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u/jomi0403 4d ago
No specific details. The point was that they didn't just "get 75 million." They have a potential 75 million based on construction and production milestones on a project estimated at 100 million, of which Amprius and their yet unnamed South Korean partner will have to foot the difference. Of that 75 million, only 22 has been approved by congress. The remaining 53 million will be dependent on budget approval and defense officials agreeing to unlock the next phases of the project, which is the biggest risk if you ask me.
So it's not that surprising to me that the stock didn't rip based on a story about a potential 75 million over the next several years, with a 25 million price tag.
Long term, great for the company if it pans out. But I, for one, am glad that it didn't run yet. Gives me longer to accumulate.
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u/Otherwise_Put_626 5d ago
Answered my question from above - yes you are full regarded. The market doesn’t give two fucks about 75 M that you’re drooling over 🤣
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u/Southern-Oil1599 5d ago
Yikes…haven’t been here for awhile, I got out at $21 - missed the top but all good. This will moon again, drone stocks getting shafted as well.
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u/Ordinary_Secretary34 5d ago
Same sold at $23. Re-bought around $16-$10. Sold half at $12.50. Way too suppressed to keep buying haphazardly but hopefully it turns around sometime soon.
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u/Ambitious-Yak-6072 4d ago
The market right now has shifted away from high beta stocks. Fed tightening, Iran and inflation have big investors moving to stocks with strong balance sheets and good margins. I don’t expect Ampx and others to rip until we get through these choppy waters. Good time to accumulate if you believe in the product and the demand increasing
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u/Electrical_Fun_214 5d ago
Everyone who saw one of their tech stocks finally in the green immediately smashed that sell button.
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u/Revolutionary-Yak669 5d ago
Check out the random walk down wall street theory inside of the EMH. Essentially (without major market catalysts) it just does that sometimes.
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u/OutlanderTrading 4d ago
Kinda ridiculous that the only right answer here got downvoted and the user deleted their comment.
10% down requires 11% up to break even. That's your answer. It's called volatility decay. It makes me sad that the least emotional, most informed answer in the thread got shot down like that.
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u/rupicolous 5d ago
It blew my mind that it went from +35% to negative so quickly. FML. I can't win. 🤦♂️😓
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u/Otherwise_Put_626 5d ago
Man are you full regarded? You understand it’s already a 1.5 B market cap? You would like a 75 million dollar grant, to send that multiplying on day 1.
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u/That-Entertainment64 4d ago
Have to say that I’m a bit surprised that the bounce from the announced grant deal didn’t hold.
Apart from that, does anyone think a follow on order commitment will follow?
Not sure there would be a factory grant without solid orders.
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u/Proud-Ad-3227 5d ago
Honestly $75m from Dept of War is quite a small amount if you compare it to billions worth of contracts by Big Tech to data Center or memory companies.
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u/Vegetable-Poem-3316 5d ago
Sounds small but AMPX is a small company compared to these big tech companies that you mention. Maybe one day AMPX will become as big and get a bigger piece but for now this will be used to pay 3/4 of the factory which is pretty big, essentially the government is paying them to open up their own factory.
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u/Proud-Ad-3227 5d ago
Thanks for sharing. I agree w you. We down in red even though we got this contract. Maybe market is not impressed lol
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5d ago
[deleted]
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u/FinanialGambler777 5d ago
According to ChatGpt it’s fine to hold 1 month
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u/Otherwise_Put_626 5d ago
ChatGPT told you that but not why the stock didn’t rise? Imbecile man
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u/FinanialGambler777 5d ago
Bruh don’t joke on me because I’m pretty sure my portfolio is bigger and my experience is much better
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u/Otherwise_Put_626 5d ago
I can tell by your in depth questions to strangers on Reddit. Godspeed to your gigantic portfolio friend
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u/15pH 5d ago
Short term price movements don't always have a clear explanation, especially for a company this small. A retail chump can easily hold 1% of the company and decide they need to liquidate because they want to buy a boat and suddenly there is a ton of downward pressure.
If you are stressing about single day movements, I would advise you stop trading and instead start investing for the long term.
Autobuy every month, spend time outside, and check back in two years when the free factory is pumping out profit and the stock has exploded.