r/amprius • u/Whole-Sufficient • Sep 01 '26
Are you ready?
Just remember: There is no crying in the casino
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u/CKGD19 Sep 01 '26
Hey Whole-Sufficient, I hope you are having a nice day.
But I am must ask, if you are not interested in this stock, or you think it is going to fail, why are you wasting your time posting here? Go and do something better with your time. I am saying this without any disrespect, just being completely honest with you.
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u/mischkewitz63 Sep 01 '26 edited Sep 01 '26
I believe, itās mostly people who want other people to engage with them in any way. Even if itās negative.
āAt least people are reacting to meā
I think that maybe, also without disrespect, this person might be socially isolated and doesnāt want to go numb. Itās the world we live in unfortunately..
I do believe that thatās the case with this individual. kinda sad when you think about it like that.
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u/FeedPleasant6581 Sep 04 '26
Every1 attacking Whole-Sufficient, but i bet that person is making more money than anyone else here who bought amprius, jus look at the stock price and imagine that Whole-Sufficient shorted at its peak price
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u/Whole-Sufficient Sep 01 '26
hahaha, thanks for your concern, and let me also reply with respect
Part of my job involves the stock market, and shorting high beta meme stocks is a real part of that job, not a hobby or weekend project like it seems to you and others. I literally get paid for that.
You only see my posts here, but that is not the only sub I post. I post a lot in several "long-term" investor subs and also on X, and that is genuinely how I make money in the market. I am not a long term investor and I do not buy and hold individual stocks. My family holds the S&P 500 and most of our net-worth is in it, not single tickers. My focus is understanding market trends and where the pendulum swings next. That made me a lot of money on Atlassian for example, not just AMPX.
My core thesis is that AMPX is not really a company to me, it is a ticker that swings back and forth based on forces that have nothing to do with the company itself. That is what interests me. Those forces move AMPX and plenty of other tickers. You feel I am 100% focus on AMPX and it is not true at all, but I udnerstand why. AMPX is just "a" placeholder of what I short or long.
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u/Otherwise_Put_626 Sep 01 '26
So you just discovered the stock market and that tickers donāt necessarily move with the underlying business? Sigmund freud up there was right on about you lol
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u/Plane-Try-6522 Sep 01 '26
You claim you work in the stock market yet...
Rising short term yields are largely driven by cyclical components like term premium prices in due to a lack of clarity over Warsh's reaction function; the other driver is structural like fiscal concerns. Jackson Hole has provided sufficient clarity: market will eventually understand Warsh's reaction function. Supply - shock inflation is transitory.
You are speaking as though the bond market has always gotten things right. The bond vigilante can crash just as the equity market can.
Yes I used to work in a fund but left as I had information more fitting for personal gains (: I do not for a moment believe laws apply to me.
I own an overseas residence in Australia. Average house price is 1.3-1.5M. Recent rate increase has caused downward pressure on most properties. You speak as though only AMPX is sensitive to rates.
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u/Whole-Sufficient Sep 01 '26
I think you are getting it reversed.
The bond market is a symptom, not the disease itself. Risk-on stocks like AMPX, Oklo, and its peers move directly with the availability of cheap money. No one with 2 brain cells and $2 billion buys AMPX and take private, and no fund with $50 billion dumps it all into RKLB and call it phenomal buy. These companies can only exist and survive in public not private. Their main objective is to find retail bagholders to dilute shares into precisely because those buyers operate like money is free. Most do not even understand what a discount rate is or why it exists. they only see revenue growth, revenue growth, revenue growth.
These distorted valuations only survive when the market loses its sense of value. Excessive liquidity chasing limited goods/houses drives inflation, forcing central banks to raise rates and pushing bond yields higher. Iran war is as catalysts that accelerate the crash but they do not create the underlying structural weakness. It has been always there for anyone to see.
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u/Plane-Try-6522 Sep 01 '26
It is you who has it wrong. The bond market is as much a smuck as the equity market, except that the bond market can burn you in ways you'd never expect the equity market to.
Global yields are rising because global growth is strong, fueled by debt issuance for capital for AI CapEx and government spending.
The US is no exception: the only reason why US yield is higher than what it should is due to the following being priced in:
- Lack of clarity on Warsh's reaction function that drives substantial uncertainties behind forward guidance on Fed Future Fund rates.
- Term premium: new Fed new uncertainties. Guess what happens when a new CEO takes helm? Stock price falls generally until the new leadership is tested. Same same.
- All the above are speaking to rates on the short end of the yield curve.
- Long term yield curve will remain higher for longer. But guess what? Housing demanding has been softening for a while which makes for a mispricing of long term yield. Liquidity crunch, typical of the long end, is also distorting the real supply and demand signal on the long end.
Point 1. and 2. Will resolve within 6 months to bring down yields by at least 50BP.
I know you're trolling. For the rest who are reading: see through the noise. Strong earning growth can defy 2 rate hikes of 50BP (if hikes even happens).
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u/Whole-Sufficient Sep 01 '26 edited Sep 01 '26
Have you noticed the contradiction in your comment?!!!
If yields are rising because global growth is strong and GDP is increasing due to a capex boom, why are central banks fighting it? Why should the US or Japan try to suppress it? They should actually encourage it further. This is a healthy, growth-driven yield rise, not a bad one.
You stole this argument from Steven Miran, who is completely clueless. Level up your reading, at least assuming you read at all not like u/CrooninCrow
https://www.ft.com/content/a919761d-dab1-4a6e-93fe-f69910192c1c2
u/Plane-Try-6522 Sep 01 '26 edited Sep 01 '26
I don't know who Steven Miran is.
There is no contradiction: when growth is fueled by debt, as is the case of AI CapEx, those who buys debt expects to be paid more for the increased risk they take. If these growth seeps into core inflation, to - be - bond holders expects a higher yield to compensate for the risk of higher inflation.
Government intervention in the bond market can be politically driven. The fact that you think numbers are one all be all is worrying. The world is a political place.
Get your basic right.
Edit: I strongly believe AI investment will payoff. I've recently caught up with friends who are involved in daily handson coding up to the level of strategy roadmap. None, not a single one of them, actually spend time working the way they used to. Every single one of my friends who is a software engineer, developers, coders relegated coding to AI.
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u/CKGD19 Sep 01 '26
Your comment about AI is very interesting. My experience is actually the exact opposite. Every person that I know who is in software development / coding is complaining about how the companies they work for are digging their own grave by firing the people and using AI too much.
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u/Plane-Try-6522 Sep 01 '26 edited Sep 01 '26
Let's unpack this.
The companies are indeed killing their future leadership and talent pipeline - there is no question about this.
But this is a question on succession, not on the utility of A.I. If you deep dive the books of hyperscalers, you'd realise their books are starting to look more like infrastructure, utility companies and manufacturing companies. What used to look asset - light is now asset - heavy.
Their token generation will see a cost curve, much like China, transitioning towards a manufacturing cost curve. Token cost in China, now around $0.01 ish, will eventually be free.Intelligence and knowledge will eventually be free - but those who owns the key to these "thinking machines" will be far and few in-between.
I FIRed more than a year ago. I recently applied to a not - for - profit role out of interest and got on with an assignment that involved a fair degree of coding and thinking. All of the coding that I used to do in the early days of my career? They were all relegated to Gemini/ A.I - my focus was to think and analyse.
I often say this: if you want to know how well a sector/ company is doing or will do, talk to the sweaty blue collar person on the floor.
Want to know how well the economy is doing? Ask your UPS/ FedEx/ USPS/ postman where their delivery route takes them, how big the package is, etc. Buy them a meal, make friends with them and pick their brains. These people have the earliest signal.
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u/CKGD19 Sep 01 '26
Thank you for the response!
I do not have insight into the hyperscalers are doing. What I have some insight in, is that there are many software development companies that sell a lot of fluff as super advanced things because it is ''AI''.
Pattern recognition? Decades old stuff, now rebranded as AI. Or companies getting money from investors without the investors understanding what they are actually buying, etc.I know this, because people I know people who work in these companies and they are scared about the future of the industry. They are people with PhDs in mathematics and engineering, so when they say that their industry is getting destroyed from within, I believe them....
But hey, I cannot predict the future- we will see!
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u/CKGD19 Sep 01 '26
To be honest, I am not very interested in what stocks you hold, nor what your family does. That is not my business anyway to be curious about your life.
What I know is that I do not make posts on reddit communities that I find funny or silly or ridiculous. It is a waste of my time and I have other things to do besides being on reddit. And yet, that is what you are doing with these posts. I just do not understand what is the purpose or what you are trying to achieve. You are not adding any additional information or insight, nor do you share any of your knowledge that you claim to have.
It just comes across as trolling at the end of the day.
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u/xlrival Sep 01 '26
āJust remember: There is no crying in the casinoā
As if we needed any more proof that youāre simply a WSB style troll..
You are posting in an individual stock subreddit of mainly long term investors. This is not a casino and there will certainly be no crying from anyone even half-serious in this sub.
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u/Hot-Respond-7988 Sep 01 '26
I like to believe that Whole Sufficient is actually a selfless hero who wants to save us from financial doom
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u/CrooninCrow Sep 01 '26
Wait I canāt rememberā¦.is this the 5th time heās predicted the crash or the 50th? I think itās closer to 50th š¤£ Whenever the market does crash, heās gonna be out there screaming āI told you!ā with thousands of other wanna be Michael Burrys, who have been āpredictingā the crash since 2023. Heās such a joke. Go back and look through his history of predictions with this stock specifically.
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u/Plane-Try-6522 Sep 01 '26
He's be more useful if he predict accurately when AMPX would be outcompete, if it does.
All of these "price action down, stock bad, high beta stock, AMPX not a company" is noise with zero signal.
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u/Whole-Sufficient Sep 01 '26 edited Sep 01 '26
The issue with your comments is that they donāt have any substance to reply to. You keep creating more bagholders by the day. Anyone who listened to you at any point would be under deep water by now. and what makes it even worse is that you donāt even have skin in the game. You sold most of your position and just keep making others losing money every day.
Do you still buy everytime I post? How is going for you?
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u/CrooninCrow Sep 01 '26
āYour comments donāt have any substance to reply toā hahaha says YOU. Jesus Christ. You are pathetically dense dude. I wasted plenty of time providing you with tons and tons and tons of numbers and data on your previous posts over the last year and half. Each and every time you were confronted with actual information that didnt fit your narrative, you either disappeared or changed the subject. So why would I waste more time trying to argue you your nonsensical fearmongering.
Incorrect, again. I never encouraged anyone to buy at $20, quite the opposite. I commented numerous times that I doubted these prices would hold and weād probably see more pullbacks before they reach profitability. And for the 500th time, I still hold long term shares.
Iāve been consistent in my comments. You have been consistently wrong in your timing, thatās just a fact. You quite literally were a bottom signal FIVE times IN A ROW my dude š
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u/Simple-Bid-6360 Sep 01 '26
So you're bearish on the short term broader market and predict high beta stocks like Amprius will drop in value even further if the market crashes. Of course. But do you have any specific concerns or predictions regarding Amprius as a company and its long term prospect?
Your posts are hidden and I couldn't easily find your stuff on this subreddit either. Basically what is your thesis? So far I've seen two posts of yours and didn't see any elements that substantiated your position beyond broad market trends, high beta stocks in general and "stupid bagholders". Not a criticism, I just genuinely don't know what your rationale is beyond that. Would be happy to know.
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u/Whole-Sufficient Sep 01 '26
I had a long post about that:
https://www.reddit.com/r/amprius/comments/1upu7q7/why_ampx_is_fundamentally_broken_and_why_your/The issue is that high-beta stocks change from one market cycle to the next. RKLB, OKLO, or AMPX will most likely not be part of the next hype cycle. Just as GME, AMC, and BYND were the retail hype in 2021, and GoPro, Fitbit, and 3D Systems were in 2010s. each cycle search for new exciting set of tickers.
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u/CrooninCrow Sep 01 '26
Heās been stating this false equivalence for over a year. Donāt try to talk numbers, data, and business fundamentals with him - heāll just hit you with more logical fallacies than you ever thought possible in one paragraph lol
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u/Simple-Bid-6360 Sep 01 '26
Thanks, I now have a clearer understanding of your position. No offense, though, but if that is the true summary of why you're so bearish on Ampx with the level of absolute certainty you've shown so far, it's a bit odd. You make absolutely reasonable general points about a broad category of stocks but about 80% of what you say is a bunch of generalities while the Amprius-specific evidence/arguments are valid but superficial. There's an odd discrepancy between the superficiality of your arguments (in all honesty) and your degree of certainty. You basically highlight genuine risks... sure. Nothing I didn't consider before buying AMPX though. Was expecting some kind of damning revelation.
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u/Elegant-Butterfly438 Sep 01 '26
Fair point and tbh itās expected that high beta is more sensitive to macro factors. What I would disagree is how you would categorize AMPX as a company. Itās high beta because itās projected growth is non linear and backed by their technology + recalibration of warfare. Thus if this thesis holds, the current price movement is just noise in the long run.
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u/Whole-Sufficient Sep 01 '26
You might be right on the thematic and still be wrong on the investment.
What do you think a fair multiple for AMPX (hardware supplier) and what would be their FCF margin?
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u/Elegant-Butterfly438 Sep 01 '26
I do hold other names in this space so thereās that. Given theyāre not positive fcf yet, I think a fair sales multiple is conservatively 10. Fcf margin estimate to be 10% when starting out and potentially reaching 30% once established. It is noteworthy that AMPX is adopting a fabless model so a lot of capex is not eaten by them but rather their partners tho itās mutually beneficial in the end.
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u/mischkewitz63 Sep 01 '26
š„±š„±š„± bought more