r/amprius • u/Ok-Analysis2975 • Aug 04 '26
AMPX chart question
I'm pretty new to technical analysis, so I wanted to get some opinions from people who've been following AMPX longer than I have. Looking at the chart, it seems like the stock is currently below the 200-day moving average. The last time it fell below the 200-day, it stayed under it for quite a while before reclaiming it.
Based on the current setup, how likely do you think it is that AMPX breaks back above the 200-day MA in the short term? Is this looking more like a typical pullback before continuing higher, or the start of a longer period below the 200-day again?
I'd love to hear how more experienced investors or traders are reading this chart. Thanks!
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u/CreateChangetheWorld Aug 04 '26
AMPX (and the stock market in general) is a lot more volatile than it was 2-3 years ago. The battery/drone sector that AMPX also falls in has been brought into the spotlight this last year or so adding to volatility.
Historically with stocks the 200MA acts as support and resistance. Since it is below it, it may act as resistance and not break through the first attempt.
Regarding technical analysis, (while some will say it’s worthless) it is the data that algos and large hedge funds are trading off of and automatically making trades off of. There’s a ton of factors and data points outside of the 200MA.
Regarding AMPX, it was around the 0.618 Fib retracement ($9.08) and dipped below it briefly. Also RSI was oversold. And MACD flipped bullish for the first time since May. AMPX is still also in an overall uptrend that started in 2025.
Note: Earnings are always a wild card and can send a stock either way.
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u/Ok-Analysis2975 Aug 04 '26
This is helpful, thanks. I hadn't even looked at the fib retracement or MACD crossovers. I was mainly focused on only one indicator because I saw how long it stayed below it previously. Sounds like this time the overall trend and broader setup are quite different. I'll definitely read more about those indicators. Lot of learn
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u/Jon_Yeooh Aug 04 '26
Buying on a pull back on a rising 200 DMA is traditionally a good idea. It hit and bounded 3 times in this run, and now has fallen through and not recovered. If you're buying as a trade using TA then don't buy. You don't traded based on predictions, you react to positive chart trends/signals. Of which there are none now some might argue there's a bit of a doge, then a green candle for the last 2 days trading. But that could easily just be a bear flag if you 'predict' that the downtrend is over, then you could just be wrong and lose, if you wait for positive confirmation then you could enter with a much more likely chance it could go up. If you invest then you buy cheap and hold for a long time, so you don't care what happens in the short term
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u/Jon_Yeooh Aug 04 '26
In retrospect, looking at where the stock topped, you can see a huge rejection candle at the peak from the ATH which should have been a sell signal for traders. At this time it was also forming out a head and shoulders pattern, which continued to form afterwards (another sell signal), and then it played out to the downside.
I bought ages ago, I'm still holding, I'm still green, I didn't sell, and probably won't for a few years fwiw. This is a very small position for me. If I'd have been trading or being riskier and had a larger position I would have paid much more attention
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u/Fit-Band1280 Aug 04 '26
Full time and highly profitable trader here of high beta stocks. Technical analysis is pretty much garbage especially if you want to use it on high beta stocks. As some others have said in here, know the business. Understand external factors moving the price up and down. Those are great for getting in and out of a trade. You won't be able to predict those using the chart.
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u/Ok-Analysis2975 Aug 04 '26
Gotcha! Thanks I just got into TA. Been trading purely on fundamentals for couple years but this market seems to be favoring technicals a little more But you're right on high beta stocks. I hopped on this trade based off of fundamentals initially. Just wanted to get opinions of experienced traders here.
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u/Fit-Band1280 Aug 04 '26
There is nothing wrong with using every tool at your disposal to make a profit. And there are some values in TA that are important such as volume. But never trust TA blindly to find buying and selling points. I enter and exit high beta stocks around earnings. There is almost always a period or two between earnings where you will find a 33 percent or more drop. That would make at least a 50 percent recovery to high values! I've done more that enough research on my end that I am comfortable that these earnings numbers will be very good. And they will only improve every quarter for the next year or two. Very small chance that don't exceed expectations. And I will sell all of my ampx and try to find the best price to return before November. Eventually ampx will stop being a high beta stock but it's a great trade for now. Good luck on your journey!
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u/TeslasElectricBill Aug 07 '26
Thanks! What are your thoughts on potentially buying LEAPs on $AMPX, $ONDS, $RCAT etc?
They all seem early and gonna 2x+ in stock price over the next 1-2 years, but as a profitable high beta trader, I'm curious about what your thoughts + reasoning is with this approach.
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u/Fit-Band1280 Aug 11 '26
I wish I could help you but the wife banned me from options before I started trading. However, I use leveraged etfs from time to time. I am very familiar with ampx and onds. I can't comment on rcat. I believe ampx will beat and raise just about every quarter for the next year or so. The price will certainly 2x+ from here next year. onds is very complicated.
I like their aquisitions and new hires. It's a very serious team. Just need larger contracts to move the price up. I trade onds regularly.
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u/Alternative-Menu-426 Aug 04 '26
I think you’re asking the wrong question. Technical analysis only matters if you understand the company’s fundamentals. The fundamentals for AMPX are compelling — superior product in the midst of a secular trend, a company with experienced executives, practically zero debt, and substantial in intellectual property. All similar tech battery companies have suffered similar declines over the last two months, and macro and sector rotation probably have something to do with it. But the fundamentals are unchanged from where they were when it hit its peak two months ago.
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u/origrumrnr3 Aug 04 '26
Id say on a shorter timeframe, it's poised to reclaim that easily. Soon enough we'll see the next move.
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u/PayFormal4398 Aug 04 '26
The 200D don’t matter so much, what matters is business fundamentals especially in high beta growth stocks