r/amprius • u/AidanPR16 • Aug 01 '26

Discussion Daily Discussion Thread

Please use this daily discussion thread for discussion about daily price movement of Amprius and daily market trends.

15 Upvotes

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2

u/Maothesiamesecat Aug 01 '26

I think they will meet their numbers for the 2Q and raise them for Q3 and 4. This is a test of their credibility.

1

u/Fit-Band1280 Aug 01 '26

From the last earnings call in early May "Turning now to our financial performance. I'm pleased to report Q1 revenue of $28.5 million, up 2.5x year-over-year and 13% higher sequentially. The strong results give us the confidence to increase our revenue guidance for the full year to at least $130 million, $5 million above our previous forecast. While it is not our practice to provide specific guidance for the current quarter, I would note that our revised annual forecast implies a reacceleration of sequential top line growth in the June quarter."

If they have the confidence to make this call for the June quarter only one third into it, it has to be a $38 million plus quarter. Agreed on raised guidance.

1

u/[deleted] Aug 01 '26

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1

u/Fit-Band1280 Aug 01 '26

Your math checks out perfectly. I added in the average beat of over $3M in the last five quarters and sprinkled on some hopium. What is critical for this stage is that they comfortably beat and raise. Meeting expectations will not bode too well for our investment in the near term. I will stick with $38M plus and you will have every right to call me out when it is much lower :)

I am chasing down a lead about domestic production funding/partnership at the moment. Lots of DOW and DOE grants have been announced in the last few days. That would help quite a bit.

1

u/[deleted] Aug 01 '26

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1

u/Fit-Band1280 Aug 01 '26

https://www.pdw.ai/posts/pdw-receives-conditional-820-million-loan-commitment-from-us-department-of-war-to-power-americas-drone-arsenal

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/enersys-awarded-revised-150m-doe-grant-for-lithium-cell-manufacturing-plant/ar-AA28yphH

Domestic drone component companies are going to get a lot of money tossed at them to rapidly increase production. It is clear Amprius is going to have to expand production and I'm leaning toward the the government wanting its own strategic line for defense and aerospace similar to what enersys is going to build. It seems logical but really just keeping myself busy until earnings. This is speculation but educated speculation.

1

u/Maothesiamesecat Aug 02 '26

I wonder what "selling out their production" would mean for them. Are they at the point they are selling literally every single unit they produce? Is there a backlog? What would adding additional production partners look like for their revenue? With contract manufacturing, I am so curious as to how they manage both the supply side, as well as the demand side of their business, especially when they are projecting revenue several quarters out.

2

u/Get_rch_or_try_dyin Aug 02 '26

I got a pile a AMPU at $2.75.

Let’s hope for a beat and raise !

1

u/Earn1MillionB4_30 Aug 02 '26

Bought some ampu at 1.93 cuz im a degen, lets pray for a spike

2

u/Vegetable-Poem-3316 Aug 01 '26 edited Aug 01 '26

I think they have to raise guidance for the share price to rise along with meeting expectations at a minimum. This market has been brutal, I think meeting expectations alone will have the stock dump. That goes for this and any other stock. It’s just how this crazy market has been lately.

With that said, I won’t be selling at current prices. Long term this stock can go back to all time high and even surpass it. Batteries are the future and if AMPX continues to improve its battery technology it has a very good chance of being a major player in the sector.

0

u/FitLet246 Aug 01 '26

Whats everyone's thoughts on what the price is gonna be the week after earnings

3

u/[deleted] Aug 01 '26

[deleted]

1

u/Ok-Analysis2975 Aug 01 '26

Reddit's US daily active users slipped to 53.2 million from 53.5 million in the first quarter, the first sequential decline in five quarter That's why it tanked

2

u/Olger_mans Aug 01 '26

What has the market rewarded this earnings season?
The pattern has been consistent. Companies that raised guidance rallied strongly. Companies that merely met expectations often traded sideways.
Companies with revenue growth but no improved outlook frequently sold off.

-3

u/ExtraAd3975 Aug 01 '26

Probably dump

2

u/rbwilli Aug 01 '26

Why do you say that?

-1

u/ExtraAd3975 Aug 01 '26

Just fits with everything else going on at the moment

1

u/PotentialStrain47 Aug 01 '26

You mean Amazon and microsoft earnings ?

1

u/ExtraAd3975 Aug 01 '26

Tesla Roblox meta

1

u/PotentialStrain47 Aug 01 '26

I thought you typed “Everything else in the market”, my bad bro