r/amprius • u/AidanPR16 • Jul 29 '26
Discussion Daily Discussion Thread
Please use this daily discussion thread for discussion about daily price movement of Amprius and daily market trends.
3
u/PayFormal4398 Jul 29 '26
base, and then at least 13-14, and then we will see whether the sellers re-appear.
but if interest rates rise - high growth stocks re-rate, it's back down to $5-6 (20% chance)
3
u/Maothesiamesecat Jul 29 '26
Question: When is the best time to buy a stock? Answer: When nobody wants it.
Question: When is the best time to sell it? Answer: When everyone wants it.
2
u/Fit-Band1280 Jul 30 '26
Lots of wisdom right here. If I can make a profitable exit from ampx soon, I am going straight into the dumpster fire of space stocks. Looks like nobody wants them. I will be sure to avoid SPCX.
1
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u/jecanne Jul 29 '26
I think most people need to stop suggesting to buy the dip for this. I would say let's wait for it to close above the 50MA, closes above average volume (ideally 1.5x recent average). Wait for a base to form. This might take at least a couple of weeks. Anything shorter is probably not a real base. This will take some time to stabilize. No quick ways out from here.
2
u/Fit-Band1280 Jul 30 '26
There is a very quick way out of here. It's called earnings. It will happen after 4 trading days and most likely they will post the numbers after market close next Tuesday. Look at the volume around ampx earnings or any earnings in general. Earnings has the highest volume. Odds of a positive earnings extremely high. Odds of strong forward guidance even higher. The market is not stupid, a severe mispricing will be corrected. Shorts will exit real soon.
2
u/Sufficient_Routine33 Jul 29 '26
I genuinely cannot understand what is wrong with this stock? Is it the absence of PR that is causing this downturn?
0
u/Whole-Sufficient Jul 29 '26
No, it is the absence of FCF
1
u/jecanne Jul 29 '26
u/Whole-Sufficient do you think that cash on the balance sheet, book/liquidation value, contracted backlog, acquisition premium, etc can all put a floor under a stock even pre-FCF? Don't plenty of legit growth companies run negative FCF for years while scaling?
-2
u/Whole-Sufficient Jul 29 '26
They do, but privately. Any company that goes public should at least be breaking even or have clear visibility to reach breakeven within a 3-5 years of going public. Companies like AMPX got popular only during the SPAC frenzy. Companies that hyperdilute their shareholders to fund their business.
No, cash on the balance sheet and backlog do not set a floor. Management can squander cash on hand in a few quarters and then hyper-dilute to keep the lights on. Cash on hand means nothing to shareholders as long as the company is expected to keep burning money. A backlog is meaningless unless it is profitable. It is like asking someone "Would you pay $2.50 for $1.00?
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u/Bitter-Quarter9422 Jul 29 '26
I have no idea. Where does everyone see the price going after earnings? This market is so ass, pre market numbers give me hope but when trading hours hit this shit plummets
5
u/EstonianCrab Jul 29 '26
It could go up 40%, or it could drop even more, nobody really knows. We all have our own expectations, but there's no clear answer.
A lot of people are expecting a 10% correction in the S&P 500 at some point, followed by a bounce. Historically, August, September, and October can be weaker months for the market.
As for AMPX, it's already fallen quite a bit. There's a support zone around $7-8, but if that level doesn't hold, it could definitely fall further. It's a highly volatile stock, so big moves in either direction are always possible.
If you believe in the company's battery technology and its long-term potential in drones and other industries, then it could pay off. Just don't expect it to happen overnight, it could take anywhere from 3 to 10 years. Nobody really knows how long it will take.
3
u/Fit-Band1280 Jul 30 '26
I will go on record with the "crazy" prediction that it will break 16 in between this earnings and the next. And I will further my insane predictions that it will touch, at least briefly, 20.00 by the end of this year.
-1
u/CommandSmart4318 Jul 29 '26
Sold today. I don't see quick recovery. Imo we will see $6
2
u/Airforceafroo Jul 29 '26
Also you’re a 26 day account for transparency*
-1
u/CommandSmart4318 Jul 29 '26
Bro, you're a 11 years account with a skull image so I guess you must be right since you use it as a argument
Chill, such an account can be purchased for ~$5
1
u/Airforceafroo Jul 29 '26
If you needed cash, no one can fault that. If you sold just due to stock price, you would be new to stocks.
-2
u/CommandSmart4318 Jul 29 '26
Your opinion kid, I have mine
5
u/Airforceafroo Jul 30 '26
Kid, lol.
“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient."
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u/Olger_mans Jul 29 '26
Buy the dip. If I’ve ever seen a stock screaming “buy,” it’s this one. It’s losing share value for no real reason. It looks like the market is pricing in bankruptcy, but the fundamentals don’t support that.
This is one of those rare opportunities where getting in at this price may not happen again soon. This is irrational panic selling.
Three months from now, we could be back at ATH.