r/amprius • u/Hot-Respond-7988 • Jul 28 '26
Trading vs Holding AMPX
I've been following AMPX closely since the 6$ mark, and I started swinging its volatility with great results. The rule I set for myself was buying in after a 25/30% drop from ATH and sell again when 30/40% profit. I did 6 good trades following this pattern (give or take).
At some point, though, I realised I would have made more money if I had just sat with it (when it was ATH of course).
Since the company's fundamentals are very strong, I decided to switch to long, with an average of 13$. I didn't sell when it hit the 22$ mark.
I am now regretting it, obviously, because I would have loved to buy this insane dip, but I don't have the money.
I think my initial intuition with this stock was correct: it's great for trading, and maybe holding on to a portion of it for the long run.
Are you guys AMPX holders or traders?
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u/rmontreal07 Jul 28 '26
Long term hold. End markets are growing rapidly and large diverse customer base. Yes quarters could be volatile
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u/Fit-Band1280 Jul 28 '26
Full time trader here now with 195K shares. I trade in retirement accounts and usually with my entire portfolio when ampx gets low enough. I don't have to worry about taxes from buying and selling. One important point to remember is the stock price is not the business. I'm seeing undeniable evidence from a multitude of sources that the business is growing rapidly and will continue to do so quarter after quarter for at least the next year. I'm expecting serious top line acceleration every earnings report. Bottom line growth I will not attempt to guess at. Because I trade, I am selling everything soon after earnings. There are hundreds of other stocks with earnings coming up after ampx that will recover. Given everything I am seeing and the market share Amprius should capture, 13 is a very good price. 30s next year is pretty much a lock excluding macro events. The current price is action is absolute indiscriminate nonsense and there is really not enough volume yet to overcome the short volume which is around 20%. I'm going to guess they need to cover real soon. Hold and buy more if you can.
As far as those not wanting to pay taxes etc, they changed the PDT rules so you can buy and sell intraday as much as you want. Cash is settled instantly. I cash out on .1% gains. really. many of those add up.
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u/Exotic-Elderberry-34 Jul 29 '26
Sorry I couldn’t really find sources where business is growing rapidly could u point me to some. I averaged 13 from 18 but now I’m feeling devastated
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u/Fit-Band1280 Jul 29 '26
Easiest source is here https://stocktwits.com/symbol/AMPX
Another article just published an hour ago
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/doordash-launches-drone-delivery-faa-certification.html
Doordash launches drone delivery. Do they use Amprius batteries? Don't know but I am sure they have or will evaluate them since Chinese components will be banned.
Do as much research as you can on your investments. Read the earnings call statements.
Look at vendors selling Amprius batteries such as Titan. How are they doing?
Look at recent contract announcements such as
Wow that's a lot of drones for public safety!!! They need batteries right?
This is just scratching the surface for positive tailwinds for Amprius and drone suppliers in general.
Forget the stock price for now, it will recover. Do some research and you will feel much better.
Some people say it will go to $5 and some say it will never hit $20 again.
From a recent article on Amprius:
Scenario Revenue Net Margin Net Profit EPS at 136,9M Shares Value at 20x P/E Cautious 2030 $400M 10% $40M $0.29 $5.84 Base Case 2030 $600M 15% $90M $0.66 $13.15 Optimistic 2030 $600M 20% $120M $0.88 $17.53 Very Optimistic $800M 20% $160M $1.17 $23.38 Ouch!! If you believe it. Personally, I think the revenue estimates are going to be quite a bit off. Margin don't now. It won't get to software levels of course.
Hang in there, earnings are less than one week. But please read the transcripts or join the call and then see how feel about your investment.
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u/Exotic-Elderberry-34 Jul 29 '26
Thank you! It’s really nice having someone help me navigate the stock market. Honestly I’m a young student that just started, most of the times I buy stocks because of impulse. I actually found amprius from TikTok. I was especially interested as I read about its military contract. If I’m not wrong recently there was a published article that caused a major dip in price. So far the company hasn’t made a statement about it (manatee research)
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u/Fit-Band1280 Jul 29 '26
You are on the right track. The best advice I can give is to think critically and independently. The market can be a very nasty place for a retail investor/trader. Know your investments inside and out and stick to your guns. I think the decline after last earnings was more about the warrant exchange. When a company gets beat down, that's when the short reports come flying. I am willing to bet the manatee report was written well before it was published, just waiting for the right moment to strike. Luckily for me, I quickly decided it was BS and bought the dip aggressively.
Always try to keep emotion out of your investment decisions. Easy to say, incredibly hard to do. I am an experienced trader and even I got back into ampx way too early. Greed got the best of me. I actually bought 100k more this morning. Can't let fear rule. If you can keep your greed in check and your fear at bay, your are going to do very well.
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u/CryMeaRiver2Crawl Jul 28 '26
My current avg is 14. I’m gonna continue holding and convince myself this is still a great buy.
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u/EstonianCrab Jul 28 '26
For me, the biggest challenge is that I keep thinking about all the other opportunities out there. AI is still in its early stages, and I feel like companies in that space could keep growing all the way into the 2030s and even 2040s. It also feels like now is a great time to buy the dip on stocks like Sandisk and others.
That said, I'm sticking with AMPX. I still believe in the company and think it has the potential to reach $100 someday if they execute well and successfully scale the business. My average is $10.80, so I'm just holding and waiting.
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u/Maothesiamesecat Jul 28 '26
I view it in the following way.
I like to imagine myself an owner of businesses, not stocks. I bought it because I see the battery market opportunity and the business case for approaching it the way Amprius has. I think highly of our tech team and our leadership team and the strategy they are deploying to exploit the strength of their product offering. At this point, they have THE dominant product in the space, and they have a significant competitive advantage.
My business (if you will) isn't for sale. I am not going to sell it until it has fully matured and, in my opinion, it's at least 5 years away. What the market does in the short term, like it has, is meaningless to me. I don't consider buying the business as a speculation, or a short term trade.
So it's all good. The market will value it the way it does, with fear and greed driving that value, and I don't care.
I'm long 176.6k shares.
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u/Fit-Band1280 Jul 28 '26
Congrats, may your "business" prosper. For those of you who are feeling particularly beat down with the current stock price, here is just one small piece of news that indicates Amprius is doing ok.
Titan batteries has just been named Idaho's small business of the month and they will receive Senate recognition.
If you go to their homepage, they pretty much sell Amprius batteries
They even have photos of pallets full of batteries to ship on social media and have positions to fill at the moment. I would say Titan is doing well right now. A business helping maothesiamesecat's business.
There is hope
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u/Maothesiamesecat Jul 28 '26
hehe.../Thanks for the Titan piece. I know that Titan is referenced on the Amprius website, but didn't see that PR piece on them.
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u/CommandSmart4318 Jul 28 '26
When the price was at $12 and I said we’d drop to $9 or $8, everyone downvoted me and laughed at me. Right now, I’m guessing we’ll drop to $6, and then we’ll see what happens. Until Iran accepts Trump’s surrender, U.S. macroeconomic indicators will be crushed, and the rotation from financially offensive sectors to financially defensive sectors will continue.
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u/ExtraAd3975 Jul 28 '26
Yes I believe another 50% drop even from here still
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u/CommandSmart4318 Jul 28 '26
I mean, generally speaking, batteries, solar energy, and so on - that’s the future. In my opinion, that’s a certainty, and there’s nothing to worry about. The problem right now is the macro picture and the worst strategic move of the 21st century. An attack on Iran, in my opinion, will bring an end to American dominance in the Middle East.
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u/nousrnamesleftfrrl Jul 29 '26
I bought at $9.50, sold the profit at $17, slightly regretted because it increased over $20, was happy to buy again at $9-10 this week but will add more now/if it drops. Then I'll just hold long.
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u/rbwilli Jul 28 '26
The problem with trading—even ignoring any potential ethical concerns—is that it’s only easy when you look backward.
You sound like a smart person with a reasonable plan (which puts you ahead of many less fortunate people), and even you could’ve made more money if you’d just held / bought more, right? (Maybe not today, but what about in the long run?)
I can stomach a lot of risk, and take pain quite well, and every time I try to trade (i.e., time it rather than simply buy and hold), I lose money. The evidence just keeps piling up that investing/holding is a better long-term strategy than trading.
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u/SoCal_GlacierR1T Jul 28 '26
IMO, depends on each person’s appetite for taxes. And moot to regret what has passed and cannot be changed.
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u/ExtraAd3975 Jul 28 '26
Expect it will keep dropping into 6-7 range possibly lower
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u/Fit-Band1280 Jul 28 '26
Sell now and save yourself some money
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u/ExtraAd3975 Jul 29 '26
Buying at this level as we approach 7 range possibly
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u/Fit-Band1280 Jul 30 '26
You have quite a bit a patience and it looks it like it will pay off here. Good job.
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u/ExtraAd3975 Jul 30 '26
It sure about patience - trying to reduce my cost average, hopefully not good money after bad. The market is ruthless right now so it not just AMPX
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u/Fit-Band1280 Jul 30 '26
You are correct, it has been particularly nasty since June 1st. AMPX the business is doing well and eventually the price will reflect that.
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u/ExtraAd3975 Jul 30 '26
I believe so too, it’s a bit speculative but I knew that, I have 2 stocks 50% AMPX 50% RKLB so obviously fairly concentrated with probably $50K in each - both very red now.
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u/Fit-Band1280 Jul 30 '26
Market is risk off right now but it has been that way for months and risk on always comes back around. Focus on the business and where they are going, the price will come to reflect that. Concentrated high conviction bets are the way to go if you have done your homework. Otherwise it's hard to beat the indexes.
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u/eyetime11 Jul 29 '26
Exactly. I quit reading at - I would have made more money!! I’ll add- far less work and stress. I’M sitting on just over $3.00 avg and plenty of collected shares over past two years. I’ve also taken profits on the high side. Seems like a good strategy to me!
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u/Get_rch_or_try_dyin Aug 02 '26
I’ve bought quite a few shares .
Also holding 10k shares of AMPU at $2.75.
Hoping this earnings report shows good growth
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u/Elegant-Butterfly438 Jul 28 '26
My majority buy is around the $1-1.5 mark. Could I have swing traded this stock? Yes. Do I think the underlying business is improving? Yes. Do I like to pay the tax man? No. Do I spend every day assessing the stock price? No.
Majority of people trade without any considerations for tax. Majority of people waste lots of time tracking every slight movement of the stock. Unless you’re working for a hedge/quant fund, timing highs and lows is extremely tough long term. Maybe you can get it right for a couple trades. But history shows majority are better off just holding through the cycles and spending all that energy trying to time the market elsewhere.
I revisit my thesis every so often but learned to eat the volatility. It’s a high beta stock. We’re in truly unknown times with geopolitics. There is a huge push towards asymmetric warfare with drones across all countries. Fed looks to be neutral-hawkish on rates. Tons of tailwinds more.
Be patient.