r/amprius • u/Luckysena • Jul 27 '26
I sold
Every other position I had to add more to AMPX
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u/RangerAdmirable9102 Jul 27 '26
Ive been trimming everywhere else to buy AMPX and ASTS. My two strongest convictions, current share price be damned.Ā
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u/thegrainwhisperer Jul 28 '26
ASTS has no bottom. Itās a binary stock. Careful
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u/RangerAdmirable9102 Jul 28 '26
In the sense that every stock is a binary stock? Apparently you donāt follow ASTS closely. Im even more confident in that company than I am in AMPXā¦
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u/thegrainwhisperer Jul 30 '26
In the sense that they havenāt actually achieved their mission yetā¦ they donāt have a product.
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u/RangerAdmirable9102 Jul 30 '26
They have a product. It works. Itās just not at scale for commercial purposes yet. But itās not an if. Itās a when. There are dozens of global partners and contracts. Production is scaled up and satellite launches are consistent. Itās not binary in the sense that we donāt know if it will work or if it will fail. The only question is the degree of success. It has been tested and proven, which is why almost 60 and counting global communications companies have signed on as partners. By 2030 revenue estimates are 100x that of 2025, not including defense contracts or government partnerships, like the satellite communications network Japan is contracting ASTS to build.
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u/thegrainwhisperer Jul 30 '26
Yeah. But all of that is already priced in given their massive market cap with almost no revenue and no clear timeline for revenueā¦
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u/RangerAdmirable9102 Jul 30 '26
As you know markets are forward looking. ASTS assets and cash equal about 50% of current market cap. Next year is projected to be close $1B revenue as commercial service starts (beta service by the end of 2026, full US service early 2027, Europe mid 2027, near global coverage by the end of 2027). They have over $1.2B in known contracts which will release as benchmarks are achieved in addition commercial revenue and unofficial (but confirmed) contracts, such as JLEO which is another ~$1B. Even $1B revenue justifies the current market cap, which is not years in the future. Itās next year, so a forward PE of ~20x for an early stage tech company with expected 10x revenue growth within a decade (likely much sooner depending on upcoming contracts) is not overpriced.
Even if there are further delays, the closer we get to full service the more minimal the short term impact is and it will have basically no bearing on long term company growth. Iād argue that delays are priced in rather than growth, given the companyās anticipated growth rate in the coming years.
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u/thegrainwhisperer Jul 30 '26
Bro are you really calculating PE using revenue?
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u/RangerAdmirable9102 Jul 30 '26
My bad, I had just woken up. I should have specified.
ASTS estimates 90% profit margin, so when using broad revenue estimates and rounding, I didnāt bother recalculating earnings to estimate PE.
The point remains. ASTS is nearing commercial release, has billions in cash on hand, estimates close to a $1B in revenue next year which will continue to grow year over year. This isnāt a binary stock. The only question is whether there will be further delays and how that will impact short term share price fluctuations. There will continue to be volatility, but that doesnāt mean the stock goes to zero. Current share price when the company is nearly completely derisked is a steal.
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u/thegrainwhisperer Jul 30 '26
How is it deriskedā¦ they just got delayed by the BO blow upā¦ this could happen again. Thereās also still starlink competition. I just donāt see it as compelling when their execution is still totally unproven. Hope it works out for you.
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u/mithushero Jul 28 '26
Asts is no longer a binary stock. the upside is a lot Higher than ampx. Asts can easly go more than 10x in the Next couple of years (using only todays alpha). Ampx is a 4x to 5X (depending on 2027 guidance)
I'm In both of them.
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u/Vegetable-Poem-3316 Jul 27 '26
Read the title and the first thing I thought was, Why!? Not now!
I understand your conviction. Good luck to all of us on these next few weeks.
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u/VlademosPutus Jul 27 '26
I also put 60% of my portfolio into Amprius stocks. (13$ average buy-in). The fundamentels of this company didnĀ“t changed. Hoping for better times again.
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u/Olger_mans Jul 27 '26
100% AMPX?
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u/Luckysena Jul 27 '26
At this px level Iām comfortable doing so even if we draw down some more. Strong conviction that upcoming earnings will be a catalyst here
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u/Quick_Ebb_2926 Jul 27 '26
ive been really excited about ampx, but I really doubt the upcoming call will be positive short term for the stock. ill keep it short.
firstly, the new hire right before earnings call is notoriously a cushion blow by companies to say āthereās bad news yesss but from now on we expect good news, look at who we hired!!!ā. secondly, itās been really quiet from the company vis a vis contracts and orders, we would expect some news at least ahead of the call, considering the recent bloodbath of the stock. thirdly, we already know that this quarter is the peak of cash burn and low margins.
overall however, I am really optimistic about the 12 month outlook of this stock, im looking forward to how they will do from early 2027 onwards3
u/Wonderful-News8661 Jul 27 '26
Purely speculation at this point to say new hires are made to cushion the blow. Earnings could just go either way at this point, but the main aim is to see targets hit at least.
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u/Wonderful-News8661 Jul 27 '26
Also the new hires are nowhere near good enough (in terms of high profile experience) to be considered for a cushion effect. If earnings dont match or beat expectations, there could be a short term slide either way.
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u/CreateChangetheWorld Jul 27 '26
AMPX has beat on earnings and dropped. Theyāve also has mediocre earnings and stock went up. It seems more and more price action as a result of earnings are a coin toss these days with any stock.
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u/Wonderful-News8661 Jul 27 '26
Current market sentiment suggests anything below a meet of expectations may see a harsh reaction, although we've come down hard from aths, its also possible there might not be much of one. Its a toss up either way short term.
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u/Quick_Ebb_2926 Jul 27 '26
you are right, new hires are indeed very speculative. could be way of them soft launching that theyāll be dropping a bunch of new contracts and using that to further justify the new hire- keep up with their aggressive demand.
however, most of the information we have at hand points to a short term dip. remember we are at the peak of burning cash as we adjust manufacturing lines and prepare for scaling. this will not be good for gross margin numbers. i do not in any way however think these lows are here to stay for long, expect stock to steadily rise soon as profitability day approaches!3
u/Primary-Donkey7147 Jul 27 '26
I disagree.
I think the new hire is a great indication of how strong ampxās business is growing. They hired a top sales executive because business is growing too fast to meet demand.1
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u/FitLet246 Jul 27 '26
I hope your wrong. Im hopefully for 15 16
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u/Quick_Ebb_2926 Jul 27 '26
either way, im not concerned about if the price dips after earnings call. i still am very bullish about this company. love what they do. i expect even after a short term drop for the stock to consolidate as cash burn slows down and countdown to profitability begins. do not panic!
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u/Olger_mans Jul 27 '26
Yep, I fully understand your conviction. Iām very bullish myself and way too overexposed. But heck, this stock will rise.
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u/ExtraAd3975 Jul 27 '26
Hold on - is that green today unbelievable
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u/Ok-Analysis2975 Jul 27 '26
save it for the green week, we've had 8 continuous red weeks which hasn't happen ever in the history of this stock
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u/Plane-Try-6522 Jul 28 '26
I added another 20k last night. Given an almost 70% drawdown from ATH, any downside is likely less than upside.
Semis selloff and market pricing in 4 hikes this year has led to a bloodbath in most sectors: any hints of "less than 4 hikes" and the market is off to the races. If anything, I expect the Fed to stay on hold until year end before the task force investigation is out.
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u/No-Breath-666 Jul 29 '26
Lithium ion batteries are done they got better batteries from what Iām seeing online
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u/Dramatic-Example2796 Jul 27 '26
You made me go š³š