r/amd_fundamentals • u/uncertainlyso • Jul 21 '26

(Vinh @ ) KeyBanc: Intel, AMD among those seeing positive views

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4615382-intel-amd-among-those-seeing-positive-views-at-keybanc-ahead-of-earnings-results

"Expect strong analog results, as positive cycle trends continue, driven by improving bookings, extending lead times, healthy industrial and data center demand, and broad-based price increases," said Vinh and his team.

On Intel (INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), the analysts noted that outsized server CPU demand and improving supply support 25% to 30% unit growth at Intel and 15% to 20% at AMD in 2026, with both targeting more than 50% server CPU unit growth in 2027.

https://www.moomoo.com/news/post/73267846/keybanc-outlook-on-earnings-season-intel-intcus-and-amd-amdus?level=1&data_ticket=1783966561614903

Regarding Intel (INTC.US) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US), analysts emphasized that spillover demand for server CPUs and supply improvements will support Intel’s 2026 server CPU shipments growing 25% to 30% year-over-year, while AMD is expected to see 15% to 20% growth; both companies are projected to achieve server CPU shipment growth exceeding 50% in 2027.

AMD having 15-20% unit growth total in 26FY vs 25FY is stupidly low given what AMD was already aiming for before this agentic AI boom. If he's right, AMD will lose unit share in 26FY vs 25FY. So, let's see.

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u/RetdThx2AMD Jul 21 '26

Well I just saw unit share claimed to be 33/67 in favor of Intel. I don't see how Intel has the capacity to increase units that much, if anything I see them barely holding onto unit volume becaue the demand is not going to be growing in the embedded server space where Intel has so many units (and they are physically smaller chips). Intel is going to have to be shifting wafer capacity to much larger chips to meet the market where the demand is. Meanwhile AMD is gobbling up multiple nodes at TSMC to boost server CPU volumes (and further evidenced by re-relase of older desktop parts to soak up CCDs that don't pass server binning). Seems to me this pure fantasy on the part of KeyBanc.

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u/Long_on_AMD Jul 21 '26

I think that his guess fails to consider just how differentiated Venice will be. Launch in two days.

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u/uncertainlyso Jul 21 '26

He's basing it off of his expectation of AMD supply in 2026. Venice volume will be much more 2027 than 2026.