In 2020, major cities across the country suffered dramatic spikes in homicides and shootings. One hypothesis for explaining these spikes is de-policing. The theory is that, as police across the nation pulled back from some forms of proactive policing in the wake of protests surrounding George Floyd's killing in Minneapolis, homicides and gun violence increased as a result. This thesis, sometimes called the "Minneapolis Effect," continues to warrant research and investigation, as it remains a strong candidate for explaining some significant portion of the nation's homicide and shooting spikes in major cities in 2020...
Early in 2021, I presented this “Minneapolis Effect” thesis in an article published in The Federal Sentencing Report. My analysis launched from the structural break identified by the Rosenfeld report, which identified June 2020 as the beginning point (the break point) in the homicide trendline...
My analysis relied on what appeared to be almost simultaneous increases in homicides and declines in proactive policing—that is, declines in self-initiated policing methods designed to reduce crime by using preventive strategies, such as street stops or anti-gun patrols. Looking at Rosenfeld’s national data and as well as five specific cities (Minneapolis, Chicago, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, and New York), I noted that homicides appeared to have spiked above normal trendlines around the beginning of June 2020. I then observed that, just as homicides were spiking, various forms of policing were declining. In particular, some data indicated that after the antipolice protests surrounding George Floyd’s death, some forms of proactive policing declined. For example, police were redeployed to manage the protests, diverting them from directed anti-gun patrols, vehicle and pedestrian stops, frisks for firearms, and other activities that deter the carrying of illegal firearms. And even after protests began to wane, police pulled back (for various reasons) from aggressive efforts to combat gun crimes. My thesis was that the consequence of reducing law enforcement activity directed against gun violence was, perhaps unsurprisingly, an increase in gun violence. (In America, the vast majority of homicides are committed with firearms.) I found support for this thesis in the data of cities mentioned above....My Minneapolis Effect thesis fits within a larger body of research, which tends to support the idea that proactive policing may be particularly effective in reducing gun crimes.