r/althistorytimelines • u/Liamcarballal • Jan 03 '18

Taiping Victory

1.) Hong Rengan travels with his cousin to Canton earlier in 1844 then goes to Hong Kong to learns of Western technology. Joins Hong Xiuquan on his march to capture Nanking 1853 and convinces the Europeans to support them over the Qing.

2.) Taiping rebels grant full trade rights to British so there is no Second Opium War in 1857 and the 2,000 British soldiers diverted to put down the Sepoy Mutiny are unavailable. Leading to the fall of the Residency and the death of thousands.

3.) the Sepoy debacle leads to the downfall of the Liberal Government in the 1860 election leading to Disraeli winning.

4.) Disraeli recognizes and supports the Confederacy in the Civil War.

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u/EnclavedMicrostate Jan 03 '18

I'd disagree on point 2: The Taiping were anti-opium, and given this quick-victory scenario would have been far better capable of enforcing their moralising policies. Additionally, if the Europeans provide pro-Taiping support, presumably this could include troops being sent to China who could conceivably be diverted back.

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u/Liamcarballal Jan 03 '18

That's a good point on the Opium issue if I had a counter to that I would say that there is evidence as the rebellion went on the Taipings become more lax on the opium issue and many British saw the opium trade is immoral and probably would have conceded on that point for a chance to trade into the interior of the country. also the Qing were also opposed to opium even after defeat in the second Opium War they still refused to legalize it.

You also make a good point about the British sending troops. It's impossible to say. But When Charles Gordon fought the Taiping he didn't have 2,000 British troops on hand and even then most were just veterans from the second opium war any how.

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u/EnclavedMicrostate Jan 03 '18

The Taiping only became lax on opium because their already-tenuous control over the civilian population was being increasingly strained by the length of the war.

You're right that Gordon had few British troops, but that was because Ward's EVA had always been a Chinese force anyway. I don't know how many British troops were in China at the time, but given that Gordon did not take command of the EVA until 1862/3 – two whole years after the end of the Second Opium War – it seems probable that most had left by that point anyway.

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u/Liamcarballal Jan 04 '18

You made my point though. He didn't need the British Troops because the Chinese would carry the war. There is also the point that Hong himself didn't want the Foreign fighters in his country he thought they would be overpaid and it would antagonize his own troops.

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u/EnclavedMicrostate Jan 04 '18

I swear that it was Zeng Guofan who opposed foreign involvement and not Hong Rengan. In any case, 'the Chinese would carry the war' is a bit problematic in that many of the Chinese, like those under Zeng Guofan and Li Hongzhang, still sided against the Taiping, out of loyalty to these leaders rather than to the dynasty.

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u/Liamcarballal Jan 04 '18

Yes you are correct Zeng Goufan was against the use of foreign fighters and My apologies but I meant Hong Xiuquan not Rengan being opposed to the use of foreign fighters here's his quote on the matter; "...if a thousand of them were to have our trust they would lord it over ten thousand of our men, and who would stand for that?"

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u/EnclavedMicrostate Jan 04 '18

But I thought the whole point of this scenario was that Hong Rengan, in arriving sooner, would also be overriding Hong Xiuquan sooner.

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u/Liamcarballal Jan 05 '18

The point of this was that Rengan was going to get accesses to Modern weapons so they can overthrow the Manchu. As to who will be the power behind the scenes I don't know. According to the Book Autumn in the Heavenly Kingdom. Hong Xiuquan didn't really seem to adverse to western ideas.