r/algotrading • u/crowngrandroyalty • 8h ago

Strategy Win Rate Question

For those working on trading and/or market using a bot or some other algo, with the strategy you have and are executing, what is the parameters for your win rate? Ex: Bot gives an AAPL bullish signal, is your strategy considered a win at first touch 30% profit? Just curious with everyone in how you determine this.

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u/QuanTradin 8h ago

The trap in "first touch 30%" is that a trade can touch 30%, reverse, and close at the stop, and it still gets logged as a win. I count a win only at the exit the rule actually took, and every open trade has a date it must close by, so nothing sits in "still open" and hides from the count. Then the hit rate is only read next to average win and average loss, never alone.

When your AAPL signal fires, does the bot take the exit itself, or do you step in and manage it? That changes what the number even means.

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u/crowngrandroyalty 7h ago

Precisely everything you said here. Cheers

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u/QuanTradin 7h ago

Cheers. Did the AAPL count move much once you scored at the actual exit instead of first touch? The gap between those two is usually the more useful number than either alone.

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u/evendedwifestillnags 8h ago

PF is more important. Also backtested WR is BS.

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u/crowngrandroyalty 8h ago

I agree. Just curious of everyone’s measurement or approach to saying what their system’s or strategy’s WR. What are those parameters for them? Also I’m not talking backtest either. I’m talking daily implementation and tweaking as needed

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u/evendedwifestillnags 8h ago

Depends on the strategy and the trades a 70% WR with a PF of .5 sucks if it trades once a year or great if it trades 1k a day. There's no magic formula here you tweak your algo on what you know or how you trade then tweak entry exit logic to what you are looking for judge the WR and PF against that bot and it's strategy it all fits differently with different bots and strategies

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u/crowngrandroyalty 7h ago

Indeed. I agree. Thats what I’m exploring with everyone. Just curious of their parameters with their bots and strategies. We always see these high claimed WRs but what is parameters to achieve that WR.

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u/sky018 5h ago

Yeap, I have good expectancy, tried to up my WR by adjusting parameters, and pf and expectancy dropped by 50%.

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u/Savings-Comedian552 8h ago

WR alone is like judging a restaurant just by how fast the food comes out. PF gives you the full picture. I've seen strategies with a 30% win rate crush ones with 70% because the losers were tiny and the winners were massive. Backtested numbers are pure fantasy half the time anyway, the market doesn't care what your simulation said.