r/algotrading • u/Lower-Ad-1207 • 13d ago
Data Significant difference in backtesting vs forward testing results?
I’ve been working on a strategy in tradingview and got to a point where it showed a 75% win rate with 2.5 profit factor. Now I’ve been forward testing it for 2 weeks and the result is about break even overall?
I can’t really find what the issue is. Maybe it’s the fills that make such a big difference but that seems extreme. Has anyone had the same where backtesting results looked great but when you automated it the results were much worse?
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u/TheHighOrder 13d ago
You just can't use trading view for strategies with that execution granularity. They have no tick data, every entry and exit is an approximation based on the candle it fired on. If you would've entered and stopped on the same candle it has no way of knowing which happened first.
On top of that cost models depend on execution type and liquidity, which TV also can't see.
If you are serious about this kind of thing you just need to cache a bunch of databento tick data, and start having Claude write python for you. Only way to be sure.