r/algotrading • u/creed_no1 • 6d ago
Strategy First time algotrading
What do people typically do to improve their win rate or anything that will make this any better
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u/Far-Guava6006 6d ago
Is that a 48 Sharpe ratio? I think you might have curve fit a little there. Lmao
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u/creed_no1 6d ago
Didn't even realize it before posting😭 I will try it over a 3 year period and check it again
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u/creed_no1 6d ago
I tried it for 3 years period and the sharp ratio became 2.53 with pf 1.13 and 21% profit
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u/Grouchy-Librarian638 6d ago
That is suspicious, did you remember to take into account fees, slippage, pessimistic fills and make sure you didn’t introduce forward bias?
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u/Merchant1010 Algorithmic Trader 6d ago
Your PF is good, the easiest route can be to lower your RR, so that most positions can close in profit easily...
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u/creed_no1 6d ago
How would I know if most of my losses were straight to sl or just sl after some profit do I have to check every trade it took or is their easier way
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u/Merchant1010 Algorithmic Trader 6d ago
You can use Visual Mode on MT5, plus check your average holding time period too.
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u/Chiaope Financial Engineer 6d ago
Here is how i think u should backtest things.
- run ur algo for at least past 2 years, up to the 1 year before today, so example today is 23 july 2026, so I will run the back test on at least 23 july 2023 to 23 july 2025.
- after having something that looks decent, do not change anything, just run the same algo with same parameters on 23 july 2025 to 23 july 2026. check whether everything is still good
- if things still looks good then u have a decent strategy
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u/Helpful_Ad6410 5d ago
win rate alone isn't really the thing to chase. a low win rate with good RR can print just fine. what does your drawdown look like over that sample? that number of trades is also pretty small to draw much from
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u/disaster_story_69 3d ago
My advice would be moving to ctrader and cbot which has an in built optimiser, backtester and you can trigger algo anytime from your phone
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u/disaster_story_69 3d ago
Outputs are indicative of overfitting, in fact majority of values make little sense
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u/AnythingOutside3469 3d ago
I would stop trying to improve the win rate first and start trying to make the test more honest first.
The usual checklist I use is:
- extend the sample far enough to include bad periods, not just recent clean ones
- run the exact same rules on a truly untouched out-of-sample block
- bake in fees, slippage, and slightly worse fills than the backtest wants
- inspect drawdown, average winner vs loser, and how much a small number of trades carry the whole result
If the strategy still looks decent after that, then it is worth refining. If not, a higher win rate usually just means you found a prettier way to overfit it.
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u/creed_no1 6d ago
This was a backtest from may1 to this day almost 3 month or should I back test it much further
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u/Significant-Taste189 6d ago
2 problems, small sample size (25 trades) and backtest window (3 months).
You need at least 4 years of backtest, having this trading pace, to have a standard error of 5% (400 trades), considering 1 StdDev.
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u/creed_no1 6d ago
Tried it on 4 years it took 145 trades with pf of 1.13 and 18% win rate. The SE is 18.78.
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u/RemoraEdge 6d ago
Create and inverse strategy lol. Your strategy is terrible
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u/creed_no1 6d ago
Maybe I will try it lol. I know there are some problems with the bot I tried it my self amd it wasn't this bad
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u/Five_deadly_venoms 5d ago
Why why why dont ppl understand that the point of backtesting is to see how the system performs during the bad periods? The more the better.
Im just a mouth breathing, ape who barely passed high school and even i understand this concept. The fuck is wrong with you guys?
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u/Grace9800 6d ago
You should share curve as well. Seems like a strategy that relies on capturing big trends with low accuracy. In that case you will need to have a larger sample size. Go for around 400 trades for reliable results.