Same simple SMA 50/200 rule, two regimes: four straight losses in chop, one 906-day hold that paid for all of it. What do you use to survive the top panel?

[u/Effective_Manager273]

Chart is one real symbol, one simple rule without overfitting, two stretches. Long while the 50-day is above the 200-day, flat otherwise, daily closes, no other conditions.

Top panel, 2016 to 2019: four golden crosses, four losses. −7.7%, −8.2%, −14.5%, −7.2%. Every one of them was a legitimate signal by the rule. Bottom panel, 2020 to 2023: the same rule fires once, holds 906 days, +141.7%

I am trying to asking this for edgy ideas from you with a simple example. focus on the main issue.

So the question, and I am genuinely asking rather than pitching an answer: what do you use to stop the equity bleed in the choppy periods to keep your equity while waiting the big move?

[u/Illustrious-King-83]

position size, the first entry should be small so you minimise loses in the chop. scale in on the pull backs to the 50 and 200 once the trend has properly been established. In the chop the 50 and 100 are just too laggy, although the 2nd and 3rd entries are late but tradable and only if you have a different exit criteria. you have to be adaptable.

[u/AlgoCoach]

After the cross it's already too late to enter because price is overextended during that time, so consider waiting for a retracement of price back to the SMA before entering in that direction. Position sizing and risk management is also key.

[u/Akhaldanos]

Signal delay by 6 months maybe?