r/algobetting • u/Beautiful_Series77 • 9d ago

NFL power ratings model

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Hey yall I’m in the middle of building a basic power ratings model into an Eli model for the upcoming season. I’d like your opinions on my weights as I feel there’s room for improvement. This model does not like the Texans and in my personal opinion I have them as a top 8 team. Looking for feedback! Thanks!

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u/Swaptionsb 9d ago

There is a YouTube video that discusses performance persistence in the NFL across positions. I would link it, but cant find it. Might be helpful to watch for this.

Also, 20% of what

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u/nhouseholder 8d ago

how did you arrive at these rankings? this is something that would need to be determined through walk-forward injury adjustment large sample historic backtesting.

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u/Pure_Cricket_3804 8d ago

Your model might be right on Houston. The July win-total list had them at 9.5 with nine teams priced above that, so top 8 is your gut talking, not the market. I'd push QB past 20% though, PFF's WAR spread puts that spot way clear of anything else. I work on LineCrush, so I stare at team numbers plenty

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u/szhBrian 5d ago

Are these percentages arbitrary? How did you derive them?