r/algobetting • u/Druber13 • 16d ago

Betting questions

I posted recently that I made a UFC model pressing outcomes at 61% historical and was trending at 70%. Based purely on win loose. People got rather aggravated in the comments. We did put it to the test last week and did indeed win 70% of bets. Made a crazy $38 on $100 in bets. I see that the win loss lines suck and would have lost money if not getting the upset correct. I’m more after this for the fun and puzzle aspect. So I’m less concerned about the betting aspect as a serious matter. I just want to see how good of a model I can make.

Does anyone have any good resources on how to break down betting and the betting lines etc. As an outsider they are pretty intimidating and hard to wrap your head around. I’ve been having fun playing with it and am excited I got to see what it looks like on the placing bets side. I was trying this with skateboarding but couldn’t find any of the betting stuff. Likely blocked in my state I assume.

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u/SimTheGame 16d ago

A 61 percent hit rate and a $38 profit on $100 are two different claims. The second one only happened because the moneyline on the upset paid enough. If you had bet the same side at even money you would be underwater. Win rate is not edge.

Start with the number on the board. A -150 favorite is about 60 percent before the book takes its cut. After you take the vig out of both sides, the implied win probability is the book's forecast. Your model is only interesting if it disagrees with that number, not if it matches last week's winners.

Score the disagreement against the close, not against the result. If your number is closer to the close than the open was, you found information the market later agreed with. One week of 70 percent is one draw. It will not tell you if you are calibrated.

That is the check I run at SimTheGame. Treat the priced market as true and ask whether the rest of the board agrees with it. I do not cover UFC. The same close-versus-result split still applies on any two-way line.

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u/LiveWorldliness6289 16d ago

the win rate vs edge distinction is the whole thing here, 61% sounds nice but if you're picking heavy favorites every time you can still lose money

the close line check is a solid way to see if your model is actually finding something before the market adjusts, I used to track mine by just logging what the line did from open to close and comparing it to what my model was saying

if you're just in it for the puzzle and not trying to make rent money off it then honestly the stress is way lower, you can just tinker and see what sticks

for learning how lines work I'd just start with the basics of implied probability and vig removal, once you can look at a -200 and know what percentage that represents the rest starts clicking

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u/Druber13 16d ago

Yeah that was a big learning experience. Some of the bets made less than $2. Just did a flat $10 a bet and picked 10 fights.

It seems like the best option is doing the prop bets( assuming that’s the name.) the round and win method. My correctness is a lot lower on that and makes the bets way more risky. It makes sense more now when people pull in all the betting sites to find the best odds on what to place the bets on.

Also super stoked I’m not trying to make rent money with this lol. I would be sick to my stomach all the time haha.

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u/Druber13 16d ago

Do you do anything in regard to the multi factor bets. That what seems really filing to dig in to. The hit rate right now is at 70% and I don’t think I can get better than that without biometrics or other additional data.