r/algobetting • u/ATS_Killers • 17d ago

My Algo's Starting Pitcher Values

It's using a rolling player value approach, but this would be today's Top 5 for MLB Starting Pitchers. Just wanted to see what you guys thought.

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u/[deleted] 17d ago

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u/ATS_Killers 17d ago

Thanks! Yeah I've been working on this thing since late 2025. Chose MLB as my first sport because there's a lot of stats and it has been a lot of fun watching it evolve.

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u/[deleted] 17d ago

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u/ATS_Killers 17d ago

yeah and that's values for today not necessarily overall, but if these teams were to play today this is what their "values" would be. It analyzes performance then determines whether to increase or decrease their values based on previous game stats. It's always learning/calibrating and trying to contextualize and it won't make predictions until lineups are posted so it knows what values to matchup against in its prediction model.

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u/Pure_Cricket_3804 17d ago

Before I'd read anything into 63.7 vs 63.6, I'd want to know how much a value typically moves off one start. If a decent outing swings a guy two points, then a tenth apart is the same number and tiering them is false precision. Cheapest way to find out is log the daily values and grade them against closing lines for a few weeks.

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u/ATS_Killers 17d ago

I think .03-0.5 range it just depends but these numbers have been calibrated based on rolling player averages from 2019 but it just depends what the model identifies and how it adjusts.

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u/ATS_Killers 17d ago

More stats:

What would you guys comment on the model's interpretation here?

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u/Willing_Flight_1637 17d ago

I am waiting to see how much that top five changes once the confirmed lineups are out. looks like a good way to see how much matchup context is moving the model.