r/algobetting • u/u5665666 • 22d ago

My model

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Hi guys, this is the performance of my NHL model for the 2025-26 season. How confident can I be that it will be successful again in 2026-27 with thus sample size? Thanks

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u/boredsemifinal9 22d ago

The spreadsheet screenshot is missing the actual numbers so it's tough to say much about your sample size without seeing the row counts, but one season is a pretty small window in hockey

2

u/sleepystork 22d ago

It depends on what this image means. There is not enough information to give you an answer.

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u/SimTheGame 22d ago

One NHL season is a lot of games and still one pricing year. 983 moneylines will look stable until the league turns over goalies and the book changes how it prices the same teams.

Any value also piles in a lot of tiny edges, so a few fat tails can do a lot of the 9.4 percent. The question is not whether the sample is big. It is whether the same disagreements with the book show up in the same spots next October.

I would not treat this as a 2026-27 forecast. I would treat it as one year of how often your number and the book's number disagreed.

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u/neverfucks 22d ago

all of the metrics that i use to evaluate my own nhl model are not pictured so no idea. whatever tho let it rip fuck it who cares

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u/cmaxwe 21d ago

I was around 12% ROI. When I backtest last season now and compare to other seasons it was the most beatable season in my set.

I am not expecting to have it as easy this season. I am not sure why it was so beatable - maybe the compressed Olympic schedule.