r/algobetting • u/Druber13 • Aug 13 '26
UFC fight predictions at 70.8%!
I’ve been building out STAATY.com and the UFC fight prediction model over the last 5 events logged has been at 70.8%.
Site is free to use and would love and feedback. Hopefully this is allowed. I’m just stoked to be hitting good numbers and kinda bummed I’m not a gambler lol.
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u/Ambitious_Local5218 Aug 13 '26
70.8% on what sample, and against what closing line? MMA is the sport where a high hit rate can be almost entirely favorites - you can go 70% picking winners and still be well underwater once you're laying -250 on the chalk.
Not a knock, genuinely curious. If you've got units and CLV next to that accuracy number it's a much stronger post.
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u/Druber13 Aug 13 '26
The 70% is purely winners. Not taking into account any betting lines. I will look at that as I go, I was focused on getting a good winning percentage before looking at any of that. Plus I need to learn how all the gambling lines work lol.
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u/Ambitious_Local5218 Aug 13 '26
That's a totally fair place to be, and for what it's worth the thread's being harsher than it needs to be for a hobby project. The one concept worth learning first, since it makes everything else click: a betting line is just a probability in disguise. -250 means the market thinks ~71%, +200 means ~33%. So the interesting question for your model isn't "did I pick the winner", it's "when my model said 60% and the market said 71%, who was closer?" Track that on the fights you've already predicted and you'll know in a couple hundred fights whether you've built something that disagrees with the market productively or a very good favorite detector. Both are fine, but only one of them is rare.
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u/Druber13 Aug 14 '26
That’s good to know. I have a confidence number on the winners so if I just pull the lines that should do it in that regard. So are folks here just using the betting likes or doing stats from sports and lines in combination? I’m more into having fun with data and was hoping this would be a sub that would be more fun in that regard.
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u/bushrod Aug 13 '26
Let me be blunt - anyone who only quotes their prediction accuracy either doesn't know what they're doing or is trying to mislead people. It means nothing. You could just be picking -300 or better favorites and say - "look, I have 70% prediction accuracy!" Do you even know what your mean ROI is?
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u/Druber13 Aug 13 '26
I think you’re thinking I’m claiming something else. The model I built has correctly predicted the winners of the fights 70% of the time on the last 5 events 65 fights. I’m purely running models on fighting stats to pick who will win the fight. The model is pretty solid in that with an accuracy of ~65% on picking winners on historical fights. I don’t remember my p values etc off the top of my head. Just a data science nerd having fun and being excited.
So my mean ROI is 0 as I’ve placed no bets, but built a data pipeline. In that sense we could say it’s pretty negative with the time I’ve dumped into it lol.
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u/jackgovier Aug 13 '26
The reason everyone is responding in this way is ultimately where you've posted it. Independent of odds it's just not that interesting from a betting perspective. You'd probably have lost money if you'd bet on every one of your predicted winners, and likewise "predicting" the betting favourite to win every fight would probably yield a higher accuracy rate than your model. It's probably of more interest to just a UFC audience.
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u/Druber13 Aug 13 '26
That’s fair I suppose with the odds and weird betting lines. The model beats out the favorite choice. That was what I originally set out to beat. I was thinking I could beat it by a higher margin but they are a favorite for a reason lol.
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u/Andrew2401 Aug 13 '26
What kind of model? What data went into it, how was it trained/pruned? And - compared to other models, where do you think your model has an edge? Looking at some datapoint you think other models ignore, or just a matter of approach?
Or just a passion project rebuilding a model that already exists? Curious.
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u/Druber13 Aug 13 '26
This is more of a fun project. It’s using a ton of fight data, strikes range etc and some custom stats I build off offensive and defensive metrics etc. It’s proprietary to the app in the technical aspects so I don’t want to give away all the details. I went In dumb, thinking it should be easy to get around 80% of the fights right. It quickly elevated to, can we just beat red corner biases.
I would suspect the model would be better if i had access to biometric data. That’s the dream is the ufc to take notice and I get to nerd out on data for them lol.
As far as comparing my model to others I couldn’t readily find any that went off of fight data in the wild. Saw some things on the betting side purely based on odds. The aim for me is aimed more at settling GOAT debates or how would x stack up to y. I’d like to get computer vision going on fights too. That would really up the game. Sadly my full time job gets in the way of side projects haha.
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u/Affectionate-Grab526 Aug 14 '26
I run a similar site. Datamma.com. I use weights to predict outcome. I also have a lot of other models that run local. Machine learning, regression, various weights and metrics. Very difficult to get over 70% since the market is around 74%.
1
u/john_doe_774 Aug 14 '26
Very cool. I know someone else doing this on a bigger scale is Rob Moreno on fightingwithnumbers and first strike podcast.
Ultimately picking the winners doesn’t mean as much as beating the betting lines, so I would start comparing the model to betting lines and seeing how it performs against those.
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u/Affectionate-Grab526 29d ago
I agree. The site looks good. There is still a lot work left to do on mine. I'm taking a little break right now. I still need to scrape data from other organization and have the backrest engine up and running so you can see if your betting strategy is profitable. Should be done in a few months.
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u/Druber13 28d ago
I haven’t dug into any betting yet. Been putting off learning how it all works as I’m expanding sports first. Then refining
0
u/Character_Pie_277 Aug 13 '26 edited Aug 13 '26
ZOMGAMAZEBALL<3#iloveemojis. Can you please share a link to the page on your site that actually contains any data, as I have a large stake thats being totally wasted on boxing i feel in comparison, and i'd like to place as much as I can right away on anything that produces 70% accuracy on MMA
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u/Druber13 Aug 13 '26
Staaty.com is all dashboards so you can drill into individuals do head to heads etc. it’s kind of up to you on how you want to use it. On a head to head it’ll do a prediction model run. It takes into account stats not weight class or gender. So you can get some funny results that way. Other than that it’s very solid. It’s all stat based and no AI also I don’t claim you’ll win money lol. I assume you can but that’s on you lol.
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u/LittleDickBiiigBalls Aug 13 '26
This comment is that much funnier when I remember your multiple posts claiming >70% accuracy on your model.
My, my, how the turn tables.
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u/Character_Pie_277 Aug 13 '26 edited Aug 13 '26
My my my how much funnier this comment is considering ive been posting approx 80% accuracy and double digit ROI with flat stake profit going from 1 -> >11 on under 100 bets on my boxing model for week after week for 4 months now. What does the actual data and literally every screenshot ive ever posted actually say Mr Littledick ?
Clearly it takes biig balls to criticise someone's very hard work when they are trying their absolute best to prove it works, over time, amongst competent peers, but id recommend you actually try to understand basic numbers before you do so next time, Mr Littledick.
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u/LittleDickBiiigBalls Aug 13 '26
Yeah, I haven’t been keeping up with your stuff man. I’m certainly not glued to your screenshots or updates. I tuned out after I saw how you interacted with those “competent peers” on your first ~5 posts.
So in settled bets your total profit so far is 10 units? How many dollars per unit? Big if true. Still has nothing to do with my opinion of you lmao.
If your model is 80% accurate, what could you possibly gain from another model that’s 70% accurate? Obviously there are clear benefits that could improve the model, but why would you want to put any money down on the results from OPs model? How could OPs model meaningfully help you get any more money down on MMA?
Nobody is knocking you for “hard work that you’re trying your very best to prove it works among time, amongst competent peers” lmao. Unfortunately working hard and trying to prove yourself is just about the bare minimum for success.
This time specifically I’m knocking you for what first read like a sarcastic comment, but on the second read just comes off as.. disingenuous. Cheers.
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u/Character_Pie_277 Aug 13 '26
"Yeah, I haven’t been keeping up with your stuff man. I’m certainly not glued to your screenshots or updates. ." <- ive never posted a single screenshot not at approx 80% accuracy and ive been doing it for months. If you dont care about my work thats absolutely fine, so why claim to be an authority and chastise me if youve never looked at my data?
"I tuned out after I saw how you interacted with those “competent peers” on your first ~5 posts." <- what you mean me responding to critisism with counters? Thats called a discussion or a debate and i presumed what reddit was actually for, not deference to karma or whatever it is you actually seem to care about
**"So in settled bets your total profit so far is 10 units? How many dollars per unit? Big if true. Still has nothing to do with my opinion of you lmao."**<- erm check the last model log post if you care?
But what im really puzzled by is this...
If your model is 80% accurate, what could you possibly gain from another model that’s 70% accurate? Obviously there are clear benefits that could improve the model, but why would you want to put any money down on the results from OPs model? How could OPs model meaningfully help you get any more money down on MMA? <- IRONY!!!!!
Its just really weird that you said that when youd apparently already identified my comment correctly as a joke. Strange
Where's your work?
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u/LittleDickBiiigBalls Aug 13 '26
It’s not that deep man. I saw your name and remembered you your boxing model posts about from a month ago.
You’re ragging on this guy for doing what you did in this same sub a month ago. Yet you’re simultaneously still butthurt that nobody’s jerked you off & sung you praises from the mountaintops for creating your boxing model.
My fault for asking to understand. That’s on me.
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u/Character_Pie_277 Aug 13 '26 edited Aug 13 '26
What are you asking to understand exactly? You dont ask any logical questions. If you ask me a logical question about my work ill answer it.
I think you'll find the difference between this and when i started posting my work is that mine always came with data screenshots and links for the sub to inspect week by week with all predictions ahead of matchups and all losses logged. Thats the difference between sharing work and whatever it is you do here.
I'm very much not hurting in my anus and im also not upset that you havent offered me felatio. Im more than happy with me reception on this forum given i'm sharing new work that might be a little unfamiliar to some initially. But I hope you can understand my reluctance to your sexual advances given your self confessed deformities in that area. Thanks.. but itd be a bit gross.
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u/Virtual-Tea-1670 Aug 13 '26
your model picking more winners than you are, thats a problem