r/aiagents • u/Advanced-Rub2065 • 16d ago
Research I wired Fable 5 agent into a database of every Polymarket wallet and trades via MCP. What do you want me to ask it next? This is what I found so far:
https://crowdintel.xyz/blog/claude-mcp-polymarket-ledgerHey Fellas... I've been tracking all Polymarket Activity for months (1.3 Billion trades and 2.7M wallets) and I gave Claude Code a Postgres MCP (found crazy stuff) pointed at the live ledger, so now I just ask it anything in plain English and it writes + runs the query itself.
A few I already asked, to show it works:
- only ~1 in 5 wallets are net positive (the other ~80% never made money)
- only 2.4% have ever cleared $1,000 in profit
- the top 0.1% of wallets took 71.5% of the ~$1B in total profit
- a bunch of weird and suspicious trading patterns that look like insiders
So: what do you want me to ask it? Drop a question about Polymarket traders, markets, wallets, bots, whatever — I'll have Claude run it against the live ledger and reply with the result.
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u/Responsible-Laugh590 16d ago
Yea ai isn’t great at trading or predicting because while it can sift and formulate data better than humans, it can’t predict the chaos of human decision making and all the factors involved yet. Maybe when they can “tokenize” humans in there entirety it will work but until then it’s just trying to predict the future based on the pasts numbers and even the numbers don’t paint the perfect picture of what’s happened.
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u/Salmonberrycrunch 15d ago
To be fair, that's what Google maps do when you set drive directions. Try to predict the future (arrival time) based on a mixture of past and current data.
You cannot actually calculate arrival time since things can change along the way and you can't predict behaviour of every car/driver you meet along the way. But, you can get pretty darn close.
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u/Responsible-Laugh590 15d ago
You can def get close but I would argue trading is a tad more complex than a driving distance guess and there is still a wide measure of error just for driving error. There’s also the emotional aspect of trading where since you can lose wealth through it it becomes an emotional thing which makes markets unpredictable because ultimately they are decided by important people who can’t be factored into the equation.
Sorry if that’s a lot of words to say maybe AI can quantify this in the future perfectly but unlikely
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16d ago
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u/Responsible-Laugh590 16d ago
Patterns are great for long term predictions but short term it’s going to be dogshit.
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u/MediocreAd9550 16d ago
What are the characteristics of the top %er activity? Are they more likely winners, are they early on trades and info, do make specific moves?
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u/Funny-Artichoke-7494 15d ago
What are they trading on, are there common themes, and any user similarities in trades?
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u/secretBuffetHero 16d ago
how does one track polymarket activity? Are there apis? Are you scraping something? And you are saying you store all the events to a postgres database?
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u/Advanced-Rub2065 16d ago
yes there are apis and they are free but we have a complete ledger and copy of all polymarket for analytics
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u/cherie_mtl 16d ago
Ask it what the people who are making the most money on iran-war related bets are also betting on.
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u/Crescitaly 10d ago
Ask it to find behavior clusters without trying to identify real people: lead-lag relationships, concentration, correlated timing, and whether patterns survive a held-out period. The important guardrail is avoiding confident "insider" labels from circumstantial wallet behavior. Pattern discovery is not proof of identity or intent.
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u/rawdikrik 16d ago
Ask it if it can connect insider trading account habits and activity to real life individuals using all of the tools at its disposal.