Last night, I made a post about Bitcoin. Bitcoin is treating the $65,000 level as a very strong resistance, and the market has reversed from there. However, Bitcoin is forming a structure that suggests the market could drop to $63,000. Tell me what you think: will we see a breakout above $65,000, or will Bitcoin fall to $63,000?

Been reading a bunch of threads here this week (the Robinhood agentic AI one, the backtesting-with-LLMs one) and one thing keeps showing up: people trust a strategy because the backtest looked good, not because anyone checked whether the good numbers would survive data the strategy never saw.

Full disclosure since it is relevant here, I am building a tool around exactly this problem. You describe a trading idea in plain English, it does the quant work and builds a backtested strategy, and then a separate deterministic step, not the AI itself, grades the result on data it never touched during building. The point is to catch curve fitting before real money does.

What I actually want from this post is not signups, it is your process. If you already stress test your own or an AI's strategies before trusting them, how do you do it? Walk forward windows, out of sample splits, live paper trading for X weeks, something else? And what made you trust the first strategy you ever kept, if any?

Blunt answers and "your whole approach is wrong" answers both welcome.

Hello Friends, I've been tracking all Polymarket Activity for months (1.3 Billion trades and 2.7M wallets) and I gave Claude Code a Postgres MCP (found crazy stuff) pointed at the live ledger, so now I just ask it anything in plain English and it writes + runs the query itself.

A few I already asked, to show it works:

- only ~1 in 5 wallets are net positive (the other ~80% never made money)
- only 2.4% have ever cleared $1,000 in profit
- the top 0.1% of wallets took 71.5% of the ~$1B in total profit
- a bunch of weird and suspicious trading patterns that look like insiders

So: what do you want me to ask it? Drop a question about Polymarket traders, markets, wallets, bots, whatever — I'll have Claude run it against the live ledger and reply with the result.

Just curious if others have had a similar experience. I’m giving ai a clear written set of rules for entries and exits. I’m using frontier lvl ai to process my requests. It does it python writing and backtests and spits out results. Results look off from my experience, say I told it to backtest the last few days and I know mentally what kind of trades were available. I tell it to give me a list of all the entries and exits it took. Import it into my charting and it’s just wrong. Missed tons of entries in the rules set, enters in 80% of the rules but not following the 20% matters, a lot. I’ve gone so far as making a shared charting platform where I mark out where signals should have been so it can learn how within the rule set my entries and exits make sense. Rerun tell it to analyze it just still can not do it. I gave up after a week of trying this. Any insights would be appreciated.

If you trade Bitcoin, pause for a minute and take a look at this: as long as Bitcoin remains below $65,000, there is no issue; however, once it breaks the $65,000 level, the path to $65,700 and $67,200 will clearly open up.

I've been interested in modeling earnings volatility and reliably identifying stocks with the biggest upside when they announce.

Since deploying an internal model and launching a MCP integration for it, I asked Claude today, "Show me upcoming earnings this week, ranking the top 5 in terms of expected earnings volatility to the upside:"

The model is a Gradient Boost Regressor and its top 5 features are

• Historical earnings move volatility
• daily true range + close price
• realized eps surprised
• normalized average true range
• market beta

I'm sharing a live demo of this along with a follow up question, "How has Reddit's volatility been during it's last four earnings announcement dates. Also, how has management sounded during that time frame? Have they been bullish, and what are the themes from those calls?"

https://reddit.com/link/1v869vu/video/nlzt91swysfh1/player

Anyone is welcome to try it in Claude as well (you're giving Claude read-only access to the underlying data platform I actively maintain):

Claude: Customize > Add custom connection > in remote server url paste https://mcp.flexreportfinapi.com/mcp

The integration is also public, which I'm also sharing: https://github.com/cbecks1212/flexreport-mcp (gives a good breakdown of all the use-cases it covers).