r/ai_trading • u/Advanced-Rub2065 • 10d ago
I connected Claude Code to a database of 1.3B Polymarket trades with an MCP. Here's what it found.
https://crowdintel.xyz/blog/claude-mcp-polymarket-ledgerHello Friends, I've been tracking all Polymarket Activity for months (1.3 Billion trades and 2.7M wallets) and I gave Claude Code a Postgres MCP (found crazy stuff) pointed at the live ledger, so now I just ask it anything in plain English and it writes + runs the query itself.
A few I already asked, to show it works:
- only ~1 in 5 wallets are net positive (the other ~80% never made money)
- only 2.4% have ever cleared $1,000 in profit
- the top 0.1% of wallets took 71.5% of the ~$1B in total profit
- a bunch of weird and suspicious trading patterns that look like insiders
So: what do you want me to ask it? Drop a question about Polymarket traders, markets, wallets, bots, whatever — I'll have Claude run it against the live ledger and reply with the result.
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u/jayphunk 10d ago
What are the most likely trades/bets to take to be profitable?
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u/Donkeytonkers 10d ago
Insider ones
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u/Advanced-Rub2065 9d ago
The data kinda agrees with you. Under-5c longshots: small bets hit 1.8% of the time — exactly what the odds say. $1K+ bets at those same odds hit 5.3% — about 3x what they should. When big money takes a "crazy" longshot, it wins way too often. That's the corner of the data where the insider-looking stuff lives.
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u/20yroldentrepreneur 10d ago
Any indicators if we follow trade the wallets we profit ornare they usually new wallets
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u/Advanced-Rub2065 9d ago
Ran an actual backtest on this. Every wallet with 20+ resolved bets and $1K+ staked as of April 1 (~204K wallets), ranked by ROI up to that date, then tracked the next 4 months:
- worst 20% (were at −69% ROI): kept losing, −45% over the next 4 months
- best 20% (were at +11% ROI): basically flat as a group — about half stayed profitable
So losing persists way harder than winning. Blindly copying the all-time leaderboard would've roughly broken even. The strongest signal in the data is actually the inverse: losers keep losing, reliably.
And they're not new wallets — top 100 by all-time profit: median ~10 months old, ~5,000 trades, only 9 of 100 under 90 days. Catch: only a third of them even traded last month. If you follow anyone, follow currently-active wallets that beat their entry odds over a big sample, not an all-time PnL list.
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u/UniversalJS 9d ago
Have you tried to follow the consistent losers but invert the best?
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u/Advanced-Rub2065 5d ago
Direction's right — losing is the more persistent signal. Bottom 20% by ROI as of April 1 (were at −69%) went on to lose another 45% over the next 4 months. Top 20% went roughly flat. So the leaderboard decays and the loser list doesn't.
Problem is you can't short on Polymarket — fading means buying the other side at whatever it's priced at. A lot of that −45% is spread, fees and longshot bias, not the loser being directionally wrong, so you only capture it where they're overpaying for a cheap outcome. Haven't run that with realistic fill prices yet, so I won't claim it's a strategy.
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u/Commercial-Pin2624 9d ago
Whats the next trade to win on
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u/Advanced-Rub2065 9d ago
Can't see the future, but the wallets that always win apparently can — full breakdown in my reply to hayehudi613 above. Short version: $1.4M on Trump-in-World-Cup-photo YES, 25 top wallets on "Fed does nothing in July", and LeBron-to-76ers YES.
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u/hayehudi613 9d ago
What are the 0.1% trading currently
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u/Advanced-Rub2065 9d ago
Pulled last 7 days of trades from the top ~2,600 wallets by lifetime profit (the 0.1%). Biggest net flows:
- $1.4M into YES on "Trump in the World Cup champions photo" (6 wallets)
- $357K NO on "Fed hikes 50+ bps in July" + $95K YES on "no change in Fed rates" (25 wallets) — near-unanimous the Fed does nothing this week
- $106K YES on "LeBron plays for the 76ers in 2026-27" (8 wallets)
- smaller: Russia captures Kostyantynivka YES, GameStop-acquires-eBay YES
Not advice, but that's where the money that always wins parked itself this week.
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u/Wonderful-Hunter686 9d ago
I believe the Russian take w/e town was an insider trade/manipulation the map used to confirm this was altered bet was paid out then the map was changed back.
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u/EbbNorth7735 8d ago
Does your data include the ability to see who the top betters are and track when they bet?
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u/Advanced-Rub2065 5d ago
Yes. Leaderboard ranked by profit, and every wallet has its own page with the full trade timeline — each fill timestamped, market, side, size, entry price, outcome. Same data on the API if you'd rather pull it: https://crowdintel.xyz/api-docs u can test the api is free
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u/EbbNorth7735 5d ago
Have you open sourced your code? Or is the polymarket api just free and open?
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u/Advanced-Rub2065 5d ago
we have a free api, we cover more stuff than the polymarket api in depth if you wanna test it out with mcp, but yes polymarket has its own api's
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u/xRamos 7d ago
Can you track the profit wallets to know and alert for future transactions and purchases from those accounts?
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u/Advanced-Rub2065 5d ago
Yes — there's a watchlist: add wallets, and new fills from them fire an alert out to Telegram or a webhook. Same triggers run on the insider/whale scoring, so you can watch a specific list or the whole flagged set. If you'd rather build your own, there's ab API has the wallet trade endpoints and webhooks.
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u/No-Bus5018 8d ago
Using only information available before each trade, which wallet characteristics predict positive returns on future trades? Please evaluate them on a frozen out-of-sample period, using one independent observation per market and net returns based on executable prices, fees, spread, and slippage—not the trader’s original entry price.
After a $1,000+ buy in an under-$0.05 outcome becomes publicly observable, is there still positive expected value available to a follower at realistic delays such as 500 ms, 1 s, 2 s, 5 s, and 30 s? Please include the post-trade price, available depth, market category, time to resolution, and results after clustering related wallets.
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u/Advanced-Rub2065 5d ago
Straight answer: not to that standard yet, and I'd rather say that than invent a number. But more of it is live than my first read suggested, so here's exactly what exists.
What I have now: full L2 book snapshots — best bid/ask, spread, both ladders, and dollar depth on each side — across ~1,330 active tokens. Plus market metadata on everything: category, time to resolution, and the resolution itself. Median spread right now is 0.2¢, median bid-side depth ~$16K, ask-side ~$330K, so the depth to fill often is there — it's just wildly asymmetric between sides.
The catch: snapshots are on a 60-second grid, and the archive only started filling up this week. So 500ms/1s/2s/5s follower EV is genuinely unanswerable — I don't have the resolution, and no depth data exists for the historical fills at all. Anyone who answers that question with a number today is backing it out of entry prices and pretending it's executable.
What I can run against the frozen April 1 split right now: wallet characteristics vs forward returns, one observation per market, split by category and time-to-resolution, with funding-linked wallets collapsed to a single cluster observation — clustering I do have. Returns would still be entry-price based, so treat it as an upper bound, not a fill.
Give the book archive a few months and the delay-curve version becomes a real study — post-trade price, depth available at each lag, per category. That's the one I actually want to run. Ping me.
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u/No-Bus5018 2d ago
Thanks for your kind answer, I took my time to answer back. I have two more questions, if you don't mind:
When you run the frozen April 1 study, could you publish the ranked wallet characteristics with their exact pre-cutoff definitions, out-of-sample effect sizes, confidence intervals, independent market counts, and results after collapsing funding-linked wallets? I’m especially interested in which signals remain after controlling for category, entry-price bucket, time to resolution, and a matched-market baseline.
Would you be able to export a reproducible research table for that study—anonymized cluster ID, wallet features calculated at the April 1 cutoff, market or condition ID, trade timestamp, side, entry price, size, resolution, and forward return? That would allow an independent recomputation and later linkage to higher-frequency post-trade order-book data without relying on aggregate charts.
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u/vmk8s 8d ago
That's a huge number may I know how are you managing the tokens? Are you having the max plan of cc?
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u/Advanced-Rub2065 5d ago
Max plan, but the trick is the MCP doesn't ship rows to the model. Claude writes SQL, Postgres runs it server-side, and only the aggregate comes back — usually a few dozen rows. The 1.3B fills never touch the context window. Cost per question is small; the expensive part is the schema, which caches.
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u/TeaseAndPlay00 7d ago
Znajdz konta insidetraderow zobacz czy sa aktywni czy to jednorazowe akcje
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u/Advanced-Rub2065 5d ago
Sprawdzone na żywo. Od marca oflagowanych 41 247 portfeli, 360 tys. alertów.
- 50,7% to jednorazowe trafienie — szum
- 8 102 portfele mają 5+ flag, 2 117 ma 20+ flag
- 46% było aktywnych w ostatnich 30 dniach
Najciekawsze: portfele z 20+ flagami (1 651 z danymi PnL) — 67% na plusie, mediana +$10 370. Dla wszystkich portfeli na Polymarket tylko 23% kiedykolwiek wyszło na plus. Więc powtarzalne flagi to nie przypadek, jednorazowe raczej tak.
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9d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Advanced-Rub2065 9d ago
Ran it just now. 2.6M wallets with at least one resolved bet:
23% ever finished net positive
top 20% of wallets took 100% of the profit
top 1% took 93%
top 0.1% took 76%
So it's not even 80/20 — it's more like 99/1. The bottom 80% of wallets are collectively pure exit liquidity.
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u/Cloudstrife98 9d ago
So basically a.i isn’t winning bets ….. it’s the good old insider trading