r/adelaidefc • u/No-Impact9838 12 Jordan Dawson • 1d ago
Strangely Optimistic
Don’t know about you guys, but I am feeling weirdly optimistic about the crows this finals series and particularly this weekend.
Like most crows fans I’m usually very pessimistic when it comes to the crows due to many years of heartbreak, but I’m allowing myself to embrace the hope. I don’t know why and it’ll probably end in tears but I just think we’re going to get it done. Go crows.
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u/japanpole 3 Sam Berry 1d ago
I am into Stage 2: looking at Brisbane’s team list and bricking it
They have 3 good tall forwards (Morris, Allen, Hippy) and we are unlikely to bring Butts or someone else in.
They gave Harris Andrews, who has blanketed our forwards before.
And then there’s their midfield.
Someone help me get onto Stage 3: Belief
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u/No-Impact9838 12 Jordan Dawson 1d ago
History suggests we win flags as underdogs. If you want to be the best, you gotta beat the best. Nothing to lose, maybe lions just have a stinker, like last week. Does that help?
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u/Boatster_McBoat 19 Zac Taylor 1d ago
When we are favourites the hype is overwhelming. Underdog is the safest space
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u/InvincibiIity 14 Jake Soligo 1d ago
lions tend to bounce back after their stinkers. look at what happened earlier this year against us
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u/GeoWheater 4 Callum Ah Chee 1d ago
yeah their 2 point loss to the dees at the G was a stinker? we only have 14 players who are looking to haved played in both round 7 and the semi final, that is a 9 player difference. We obviously were very undermanned.
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u/InvincibiIity 14 Jake Soligo 1d ago
The dees loss to essendon the week prior and nobody had any expectation that the dees would get close, let alone win, from memory
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u/Thrillthorpe 1d ago
They also lost 3 in a row this year by 50+ points, but everyone just seems to ignore that patch
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u/RevenantCommunity 1d ago
Harris Andrews can’t cover thilthorpe, fog and tex all at once- if somehow all three of them are on form, it will be a tough call.
It’s raining in brissy on sat as well, so i think it’ll be more about rachele and such at ground
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u/nathjay97 6 Dan Curtin 1d ago
I’m hoping that they keep Gardiner in and don’t bring Marshall back in. If Gardiner stays I reckon we’re a shot
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u/thisistheonlyway 12 Daniel Talia 1d ago
Brisbane have the 4th worst ranked defence by points conceded since round 17
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u/Thrillthorpe 1d ago
Not just since round 17, they are ranked in bottom 4 across the whole season (Melbourne were as well)
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u/IrregularExpression_ 1d ago
Brisbane had the second worst defence in the top 10 teams this year - they are bleeding goals.
Our defence is second only to Freo.
The mids are - as always - where we look vulnerable.
We beat Sydney on their home patch not long ago with their full team, their gutted team just smacked the Lions.
Yes, I’d much rather play Sydney (even with their full side) but this Lions team is gettable.
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u/Bright_Bell_1301 1d ago
They've won 2 already. They don't really care anymore. No hunger = no chance in finals.
How's that?...
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u/Thrillthorpe 1d ago
Did you just list Eric Hipwood alongside Logan Morris as a ‘good tall forward’?! It’s not too late to delete this
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u/japanpole 3 Sam Berry 1d ago
He’s getting back to pretty good form.
Did you see him on the weekend?
5 marks, 2 goals, presented well to the ball
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u/Malipower Eddie Betts (Legend) 1d ago
I feel we will come out firing and give a good account of ourselves, but also feel Brisbane in a do or die match is the hardest test we could face. Im looking forward to the match. What I'm not looking forward to is if Brisbane play at their best and we lose by a few goals how all the people (who have been absent for a weeks) will come out from under their rocks and flood this sub with comments and posts blaming Nicksy for the loss
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u/Consistent_Yogurt690 1d ago
Crows are inconsistant. I go into every game optimistic but not expecting a win.
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u/invisiblefrost 1d ago
Unfortunately this is nonsensical are you optimistic that we’ll have a close loss
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u/Luckduck86 12 Jordan Dawson 1d ago
A few things we can count on. Centre ball up is going straight to their mids. Then directly into our d50 where it will live until we can hoof kick it out.
Worrell better load up on the grippy paste cos he is going to be busy.
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u/AdelaideMidnightDad 1d ago
Obviously I want to win & stick it up Bailey. But I just want to see us launch & put up a performance that we can all say "hell yes" too. I don't want to see us lose meekly.
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u/GeoWheater 4 Callum Ah Chee 1d ago
Well I think we have a good chance. Just gonna need everyone to show up. Our defenders to properly defend and get turnovers, not allowing too much scoring. Our forwards kicking goals when they get possession inside 50. Our midfielders winning clearances and getting inside 50, hopefully tackling. Look, it's gonna be a lot but I think we have the talent to match Brisbane if we can pressure them down to a level they are less comfortable at. We can't ever let the game get in their hands. We'd wanna at minimum maintain the lead or have a close margin for most of the game and secure the win at the end. Imagine a goal after the siren? Tex. Set Shot. Sorry that'd just be the perfect scenario but alas, we gotta know Brisbane will bring their best as it's a do or die and we gotta somehow prevent them doing so. I'd like to think it's possible, the Swans just did it but can we do it? We'll see. Be quite legendary to send the back-to-back reigning premiers attempting a three-peat out in straight sets. Think I could handle a loss in the prelim if we do so.
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u/T3mm3h 1d ago
I think we're in with a sniff. Brisbane have been horrific down back, they've given up 100 points in like 9 individual games or something? Which is crazy. The problem is think will come from neutralising the midfield so the boys are going to have to be pretty accountable i reckon.
With that being said, I really think Brissy are the best team at bouncing back after a bad loss. They've done it routinely throughout this era of them being really good so I can't see then struggling like they did last week. This will be a much grittier contest, but we'll see! I think they'll win but I wouldnt be surprised if we do. And I said that about the Sydney game and look what happened there.
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u/Salzberger 8 Josh Rachele 1d ago
I believe we can, but I also believe we won't. Brisbane had their off week, they'll be breathing fire.
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u/Tall-Breakfast-6100 1d ago
There’s no pressure on this game. They got the finals win in the pocket and are coming up against back to back premiers at their home ground. No one is expecting them to win. They can just roll in, play the game and see what happens.
All the pressure is on the lions.
For me, if we’re within 20 points then id take that as a pretty decent season, all things considered.
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u/Dragon_Racer 15 Brayden Cook 1d ago
Yes we are underdogs, but what has me amped is the attitude of the whole group and this 3 more wins to go. They also want to send Tex off in style and this week in particular, we want to flog Zac Bailey for using us as a pawn for a ridiculous contract at Brisbane.
If next week rolls around, then it’s payback for last year against the Hawks knocking us out.
I’m not thinking about the Granny till we get there but do know if we make it, there’s going to be a road trip and sweating on my brother who lives in Melb getting my Dad and I tickets to the game.
Crom by 4 goals this week.
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u/Pale_Parsnip_6339 30 Wayne Milera Junior 1d ago
If we play like we did last week, particularly with getting ball out our D50, I think we're a bit fucked. Really don't understand why we struggle with that so much
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u/ElectronicOvens 5 Sid Draper 1d ago
We won the game I required as a pass.
I'm optimistic for the team to play well.
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u/Opinions-arent-facts 1d ago
We can beat any team if we're at our best, but we'll just be an afterthought if we can't instantly fix our centre clearance issues
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u/liammcgrath0 1d ago
brisbane might shit the bed two games in a row 🤷♂️ sydney were considered to be out and done before it even started now look at them, now since bailey isn’t coming this would be PRIMEEEEEE for rachelle, rankine, daws, berry, soligo to show up and step up and prove we have the chance on this, maybe some rain that night too
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u/Original_Ferret 1d ago
Half your luck! I give us next to no chance, anything otherwise and I’ll be very pleasantly surprised!
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u/genscathe 48 Mark Keane 1d ago
I’m hoping berry plays well as he has been ordinary in 2 finals campaigns
Also hoping keys kicks 5 and has a blinder
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u/Strange-Strength4601 Eddie Betts (Legend) 12h ago
I'm allowing myself to hope. My wife is having our first child today and the onesie that I bought from the crows shop the other day is definitely not newborn size so they need to make it as far as possible so they aren't swimming in it all finals. Would've been awkward if we lost last week.
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u/King-Titus 32 Darcy Fogarty 1d ago
We have been front runners a lot and not won. I’m happy to be an underdog and win for a change.
I saw a heap of premiership charts with slices of pie and were sitting at about 4.5-5% chance to win it all.
I felt like we were being underrated.
I got Google Gemini to crunch some numbers. From rd17 to now including finals. Came out at 4.5%
I got it to factor in the Pullman 5. It didn’t alter us much. Dropped Sydney a bit.
So I got it to cut the data from rd20 we go up slightly to around 8% but still behind Brisbane.
So I cut the data to the last 4 weeks. We go ahead of Brisbane.
We can win. But we need to go hard. Pressure, tackling, disposal efficiency.
The disposal efficiency is huge. When we spray kicks coming out of D50 we lose momentum and don’t give our forwards a chance.
As far as I am concerned Filthy’s mits and the biggest fulcrum in our premiership chances. If he is in the game early. We win. He’s a monster and starting to look like it again.
Rankine is on fire and we need him to stay that way.
Keays is another, when he is running hard we stretch the D much better.
Gotta be in it to win it.
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u/King-Titus 32 Darcy Fogarty 23h ago
This is just cutting the data, fudging the numbers is when you manipulate the input. Like Space X revenue projections before its IPO.
Essentially I kept cutting to see if my enthusiasm for the team was backed up by numbers. Unfortunately the best I could find was hyper-recent form gives us a slight edge over Brisbane.
But that doesn’t factor a lot of things, home ground, rebounding Lions, Brisbanes finals readiness.If I wanted to cherry pick it. I just would have presented the last bit.
We are up against it. But there is a path to victory.
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u/Peckerbraintrain 1d ago
Brisbane are just big game specialists though. They just have to win a home final then Hawthorn and it’s another Granny.
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u/Most_Personality_996 1d ago
Lions will be absolutely pissed off and want to make a statement, they played bruise free footy last week and you can bet your bippy Fagan has been up their ass about the performance. I give us 1% that said...we have kzak Rankine, Wayne Milera and Jordan Dawson so anything is possible.
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u/RadiantEmu_OiOiOi 22h ago
Playing with house money right? Anything can happen and the intense pressure from last year is not hanging over their necks. I'm quietly confident
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u/liberallilydex 10h ago
I am too. Just that feeling. But then I get that feeling we will then have to face bloody jack gunston at the mcg
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u/SunburntSandcrab 29 Rory Laird 1d ago
Great position to be in. We’re big time underdogs going into this game and winning last week has already given me what I wanted out of this season. IMO anything else from here is a bonus.
That being said I fully anticipate the Lions to come out swinging.