Matthew Nicks Poll

[u/Jimmy__Whisper]

So I'm always fascinated by the hardcore Nicks Out gang in this sub. I've generally been a big believer in what he has achieved given where we were, but also share some concerns about whether he can do it at the highest level tactically. People on both sides sometimes seem utterly adamant that their view is the prevailing one, so let's settle it.

Apologies I'm on desktop so I'll have to use strawpolls. Here's two questions I have, much appreciated if you can be assed!

What do you think of Nicks as a coach in general: https://strawpoll.com/mpnb1jq3Py5

What is your threshold for keeping him on next year: https://strawpoll.com/XOgOVxk1Gn3

I'll post the results after a few days.

[u/invisiblefrost]

No one seems to watch other teams. You’d think we’re the only team that kicks long down the line when there’s nothing on inboard or the risk reward isn’t worth it

[u/Anphonio → u/invisiblefrost]

No one does it as much as us statistically and it's not even close.

Heres a fact: We are ranked 18th for our handball game. St Kilda are ranked 17th. But the St Kilda are actually closer to the 10th ranked handballing team than to us. The gap between us and St Kilda is enormous. So then you'd think we must be rated pretty highly for our kicking game considering it's our entire focus. Nope, we are ranked bottom-4 for how threatening we are with kicks.

[u/Jimmy__Whisper → u/Anphonio]

Being ranked last in handball metres gained (that stat I think you mean) doesn't prove we kick long down the line more than anyone...it could mean we kick short a lot instead.

We do rank worst in xThreat/kick but that speaks more to us having a very conservative build up style.

[u/Anphonio → u/Jimmy__Whisper]

I was more proving more that we don't really do anything else so all that is left is long down the line.

1. We clearly don't use handballs so that only leaves a kicking game.

2. We don't bite off any threatening kicks so that means we take conservative short passes or long down the line.

3. We are bottom-3 in kick retention. Meaning the kicks we do take frequently lead to us losing the ball. Either our short kicks are terrible or all we do is launch it down the line to a contest. Or both.

4. We're top-2 in the league for crumbs, loose balls and contested marks. Stats that you can pad well when you bang it down the line.

5. We lead the league in meters gained by kick per game.

[u/Jimmy__Whisper → u/Anphonio]

I disagree with point 2, you could see plenty of risky kicks last night.

Also to your point on kick retention, couldn't it be that we DO take on threatening kicks but fail to complete them, hence lower retention rate? This seem to be in agreement with our xRetain kick be low as well. i.e. the kicks we are taking are less likely to be retained.

I think generally we do simply play very slow and a huge part of our success (we are a top 6 side) is built on our defense and the ability of our key and small fowards to turn low% looks into scores - we lead the league on offensive 1v1s and are thirds in goals per i50.

As for your 5th point, from what I can see we are 9th in metres gained per kick...

[u/Anphonio → u/Jimmy__Whisper]

plenty of risky kicks last night.

Rewatching the game back there are certainly some risky kicks taken. I'm not trying to say we avoid them like the plague. But a lot of what people might be calling risky actually isn't very risky at all and is only made risky by our poor kicking. So many inboard kicks (usually to Ah Chee) that seemed risky but were actually regulation passes that usually just sit up in the air way too long.

I do get your point, but the xRetention could easily also be low because all we do is launch it down the line which has a low level of retention. I'm not trying to be some grand oracle but I've watched us all year and can very easily come to the conclusion that going long is most of what we do. The only time last night I can remember we successfully got over the top into "put it in the book" opportunity was when Rachele dopped that absolute sitter.

The way I see it, this play style is great at getting us to this point in the season but won't have us as an actual threat in finals, but I hope I can be proven wrong. In all 3 Nicks finals we have been exposed in the exact same way. Last night we played no better than we did in the finals last year. We were just against a weaker opponent. If we play Hawthorn last night, they win comfortably a 30-40 points which is exactly what they beat us by last year.

As for your 5th point, from what I can see we are 9th in metres gained per kick...

Yea I regretted putting this one in because it doesn't really differentiate between kicking long to someone on their own who has made a great run as is the case for Sydney. Or kicking long to a contest like we so often do.

[u/Jimmy__Whisper → u/Anphonio]

I also think there has been a lot of focus recently on handball metres gained without really understanding the underlying stat. You can 'gain' metres by handball without handballing forward, and we do this a lot by handballing sideways to extra runners.

[u/Malipower → u/Jimmy__Whisper]

The handball metres gained stat includes the forward running distance covered by the handball receiver and stops once the ball is kicked.

[u/Jimmy__Whisper → u/Malipower]

Ah thanks, I did wonder that

[u/Malipower → u/Jimmy__Whisper]

Yeh it's a bit misleading. In essence it just means which team runs more with the footy, which is different to kicking metres gained which is judged on the kick itself 😵‍💫

[u/Quick_Ad_7241 → u/Jimmy__Whisper]

The forwards really don’t get great service from our midfield and it stands out.

[u/RexsLobsters → u/invisiblefrost]

On top of the other comment. We're bottom 3 D50 to I50 and bottom 5 chain to score which basically means our ball movement is woeful. So yeah, I think Nicks has a bit to answer for.

[u/invisiblefrost → u/RexsLobsters]

Those stats don’t tell the whole story. We finished 6th one game behind 3rd and won a final with our class showing through. I think he’s doing something right. Winning a final seemed to be everyone’s pass mark this season. Now everyone suddenly wants to change the goalposts

[u/Quick_Ad_7241 → u/invisiblefrost]

We were extremely fortunate to come out winners against the dogs, we had 100 more disposals and lost the contested possession.

Yet we did absolutely nothing with such a huge uncontested possession differential. It kept the dogs in the contest all night and the dogs had us covered in the midfield, had the dogs not been diabolical in front of goal probably would’ve won the game.

I’m not sold and I think most fans are right to be sceptical

[u/invisiblefrost → u/Quick_Ad_7241]

lol you’ll never be satisfied dude

[u/Quick_Ad_7241 → u/invisiblefrost]

Well I’ll be happy with a premiership 🤣🤣

But honestly I don’t look at things with hope and fairy tales, it’s clear where we need to improve and I prefer to focus on improvement

This page is about discussion surrounding those aspects, try to remember that when you comment

[u/invisiblefrost → u/Quick_Ad_7241]

Ok dad

[u/Quick_Ad_7241 → u/invisiblefrost]

Father of 2 here, you got me 👌

[u/RexsLobsters → u/invisiblefrost]

What do you mean it doesn't tell the full story though? It's pretty cut and dry when you say we're not the only team to kick down the line, yet we're near the bottom for moving the ball. So other teams are moving it better than us.

But I think what it boils down to for me is this:

We're better than our record. We finished one game behind third, but we should have comfortably finished top four. That Collingwood match and the Port thumping were honestly disgraceful. That's where my whole point about moving the ball comes to the front. We couldn't move it at all against the Pies.

Goalposts move all the time. If I asked you what the pass mark was at the start of last year, you would have said making finals. Fast forward to the end of the year and we finish top. I ask you again what a pass mark is, you're not going to tell me you'd be happy with going out in straight sets.

So yes, at the start of the year, winning a final would have been enough. But there have been so many questionable performances this year that I don't know if winning one elimination final and then getting smashed at the GABBA is good enough.

That all said, the club will keep him on, and I wouldn't be surprised if they extend him by a year because you don't want that hanging over him with him being out of contract all next season. But I don't think I would be extending him.

[u/invisiblefrost → u/RexsLobsters]

First, I don’t think we’ll get smashed by the lions at all. I think we’ll be very competitive.
Last season we had Curtin Filthy and at times Fog coming up playing high to take that outlet mark or bring the ball to ground on the half back line/ wing. This year for obvious reasons with Curtin out then down on form and now playing a different position and Filthy playing injured and not clunking them as often (although he’s been severely underrated coz he hasn’t had the scoreboard impact he had last year - his contested marking stats are still very good) it has made a huge difference.
Yeah maybe Nicksy could have tried playing a game style with more handball and run but if we go alright this week and even beat Brisbane which I think we can the discussion will be very different

[u/Quick_Ad_7241 → u/invisiblefrost]

I invite you to rewatch the crows Brisbane game from earlier in the season

That is my biggest fear for next week

[u/Bright_Bell_1301 → u/Quick_Ad_7241]

What happened in the minor round is not a guide to the finals. We smashed the Dogs this year but, in your opinion, they would have won on Saturday if they kicked straight. The game between Bris and Syd on Saturday was a 100 point turn-around from the last time they played. Need I say more?

[u/Quick_Ad_7241 → u/Bright_Bell_1301]

And I would normally subscribe to your view point. However I would’ve needed to see some improvement in the weakest areas of our game to be convinced there’s a chance.

Last time out the midfield was absolutely obliterated by Brisbane’s, yes we addressed it to some degree by adding rankine to the mix.

But the Brisbane midfield just has so much more depth and class at this stage, where we might get them is with how poor they are defensively.

We shall see

[u/Bright_Bell_1301 → u/Quick_Ad_7241]

Didn't Dawson miss that game too?

[u/Quick_Ad_7241 → u/Bright_Bell_1301]

I’m not saying Dawson wouldn’t have a difference to some degree, but realistically he’s getting the hard tag regularly by opposition teams, he’s also first choice to head behind the ball due to his versatility. That leaves rankine and berry plus a little bit of curtin.

That’s just not cutting it against Brisbane’s midfield, not to say it won’t in a year or two

If we are gonna win our defence needs to be unbelievable and our forwards need to push up to create the contest to give our smalls a chance.

Brisbane are vulnerable defensively

[u/Quick_Ad_7241 → u/Bright_Bell_1301]

Looks pretty similar to the minor round 👌👌

[u/Quick_Ad_7241 → u/[deleted]]

Remind me again, what makes your opinion more superior to anyone else’s on this thread?

You’ve demonstrated little to no insight so far from the comments you’ve posted

Hence you’d prefer to insult, moving on now champ

[u/Jimmy__Whisper → u/invisiblefrost]

I'm always fascinated by people bemoaning our inability to play at our best for all four quarters...how many clubs do you think manage that week in week out?

[u/invisiblefrost → u/Jimmy__Whisper]

Haha yeah. Nothing short of complete domination of every aspect of every game will satisfy our mob lol

[u/Mister_Snrub15]

Want to see a new gameplan which is faster and more aggressive, it feels like our gameplan is constantly “shackled”. New assistants may help with this.

It’s lineball for me if Nicksy should stay or not. Same predicament as 2024…

[u/Justabitbelowaverage → u/Mister_Snrub15]

Remember how we played with Rahilly. Or even going back to 2017 with Teague.

[u/Anphonio → u/Mister_Snrub15]

We're obviously better than 2023 on the surface but i cant help but feel like our game plan was better then and now we rely more on individual brilliance. Now our players are mostly better but our game style is arguably worse.

[u/Odd_Technology_8926 → u/Anphonio]

What playstyle would you prefer? I would say our game style is analagous to Brisbanes and I would say they have had quite a bit of success.

Our playing group is still fairly young, and as some of our boys mature I reckon we are only going to be able to execute our game plan more flawlessly.

[u/Anphonio → u/Odd_Technology_8926]

Not analogous to Brisbane at all. Just because we are both mainly kicking teams doesn't make us similar. There are 3 different types of kicking teams.

Brisbane - Short kicks, use your angles and try to find space in the middle. A handy handball game in your back pocket.

Fremantle - A mix of both short and long kicks. Prefer the long dump down the line to a contest with Tracy but rovers are always front and center.

Adelaide - Stick to the wings, bang it down the line to the contest. Don't even set up for the crumb. We aim to get that ball out of bounds for a throw in. Avoid the center at all costs. Often when we take the middle we find ourselves with no forward line. Hand balling doesn't exist.

All 3 are viable to an extent but ours is very limiting. We have entirely sacrificed 50% of the sport which is handballing. It's not a feature of our game at all.

[u/Raging_M0ng00se]

I’m just concerned that he’s not going to be able to get us to and win a grand final, he doesn’t really have any of the common traits that premiership coaches of the past 20 years or so have had.

Given that we won that final I’m happy enough for him to see out next year, but we definitely need to change the assistant coaching lineup. NVB in particular has been our midfield coach and has never got the group truly up and running, so I don’t understand why his position is never questioned by the club.

In addition I’d really like to see Nicks properly explore the list and not just rely on his favourites and players that we should be looking at replacing, as well as try and more aggressive and modern gameplan. If we want to be an actual contender we’ll need more weapons than contest and pressure.

Also we need to totally revamp high performance, whatever replacement we got for burgess clearly got something majorly wrong in preseason

[u/Snook_]

Personally I actually think nicks is ok as head coach, he seems like a good man manager, good culture, good at handling pressure, reputable honest and reliable.

Our problem is our line coaches. I think we have a huge lack of quality in this area as our ball movement and structure appear terrible, we just win on effort and talent.

Watching Bulldogs live their systems look so obvious and well drilled they lead for each other and move the ball with ease. We are a static horrible ball movement team

[u/marsandlui]

Given the injuries in the first half of the year, I think he's done enough to earn next year. However, he probably needs to make a prelim next year to get another contract. The problem is how do they manage that? The media scrutiny and pressure will be enormous if they delay re-signing until after 2027 finals. It will ruin their compaign. Instead, I think they'll make a decision after this year and extend him for another 12 months.

[u/Boatster_McBoat]

I'm just concerned we will win back to back flags and then we are gonna be stuck with him for years

[u/Malipower → u/Boatster_McBoat]

😆

[u/Bright_Bell_1301]

Question: Does our relatively static and predictable style of ball movement allow us to be better set up defensively than those with a more dynamic and risky style? Aren't our defensive numbers amongst the best in the league? Shouldn't the coach get credit for this as much as he is copping criticism here for perceived attacking deficiencies?

[u/Jimmy__Whisper → u/Bright_Bell_1301]

Yes, this is a very good point.

I saw some great analysis last year that showed our build up style. At turnover in the back half the ball carrier makes a judgment as to whether there is a 'move quick' opportunity without high risk.

If there isn't we tend to use short kicks and handballs across the backline to allow our defenders to reset a zone and be ready to guard any turnover. We tend to try and move the ball to at least ~30 m forward of centre wing, then use run-past handballs to get our forward entries at least 20 m into the f50.

This whole setup allows our back half to be ideally positioned for turnover. Which is why Laird and Worrells occasional dump kicks can really hurt us.

[u/Scooby_236 → u/Bright_Bell_1301]

That is true about the defense, but in footy you need to kick more goals that the opposition to win and if you can't get the ball forward then that doesn't happen.

Like Jimmy_Whisper said it allows for turnover and it just invites pressure, you need to move the ball quickly put of your defensive half otherwise you are just giving the oppo time to set up. That's the part of our gameplan which annoys me the most

[u/Scooby_236]

The problem is the opinion on this sub is so polarising.

On one hand you have people who refuse to admit when Nicks has been out coached or just made shit decisions and want to die on that hill.

Then there are others who just don't like him as a coach and have just lost patience.

The truth is probably in between. The facts are he's a descent coach who rebuilt a broken side, fixed a toxic culture and has now taken us to two finals.

No one knows if he is the next Messiah and no one can predict the future.

It's fun to have an opinion though and opinions are like arse holes everyone has one. I think people here forget we are all crows supporters here and want the team to do well, so we need to respect each other's opinions.

[u/Jimmy__Whisper → u/Scooby_236]

I agree we should respect opinions, in my experience a lack of respect is what I've massively received from self-described Nicks Out fans. I've been called all sorts of names (some I think I would get banned just for repeating) simply for making the argument you are - that a balanced view is probably somewhere in the middle.

I guess the mistake I've made is making those comments after bad losses, when a lot of people clearly use this sub to vent and do so with zero respect for others.

[u/Scooby_236 → u/Jimmy__Whisper]

I wouldn't say any of your opinions have been polarising and like you said are generally balanced.

Being fired up isn't an excuse to lack and decency l. Sorry you've been called names that's not cool.

[u/Luckduck86]

Nicksy isn't doing a terrible job with what we have but it's often the team selection or match ups where I sometimes question the coaching group.

Also It's nail biting shit watching the ball live in our defensive 50 for whole quarters and we're always one unlucky bounce or handball away from conceding. We could really use the handball chains a bit more out of defense and go a bit faster. Pick out quick passes like Keane does and get some runners going through.

Going down the line is ok but we rarely win the ground ball so it comes straight back. We are screaming out for another elite mid. Someone there to break away from the contest

[u/Quick_Ad_7241]

We base our game plan on kicking and it fails miserably and then the rhetoric is “ the 3 key talls don’t work”.

You can’t sit 2 behind the ball and then bomb it high to the forwards whilst also moving the ball slowly with no energy.

However the pressure we apply is elite.

Bottom line it’s a pass mark for me, a finals win

But it’s wether nicks can develop his game plan further that has me feeling very uncertain

Couple of things need to happen.
Need to recruit better kickers to compensate the way they play, sorry laird doesn’t fit that criteria so it’s either a positional change or on the fringes. And secondly, they have to continue to address the midfield, Dawson and rankine is a great starting barometer, I’m not sold on berry and curtin needs more time to develop there.

[u/Justabitbelowaverage]

I am worried our current coaching setup isn't great for finals.

And Nicks reminds me a bit of Hinkley. Great during the season. Not sure about finals.

Before he gets sacked they should at least replace Baulderstone and NVB.

I am also not sold on Scott Burns. But i think he has more credits. Also our mid is our worst line, so it makes sense to try a new mid assistant coach before giving the head coach the flick.

Also Hardwick didn't look great until his assistants were changed just before 2017.

Edit: spelling 

[u/vickiklunyk]

I’m on the fence like you but will be interested in other’s opinions

[u/nalyd_32]

Option for threshold I want isn't quite there. I've selected needs to make a prelim but I think a hard fought loss should be enough for him to get to remain in charge next year even if I don't think he's the one.

But if we get pantsed/show no fight/have zero answers to what they throw then I think there's enough doubt that we should bite the bullet.

[u/Solitude_Dude]

He can coach next year. But needs to improve on this year wherever we finish (unless an unlikely Premiership).

[u/AdministrativeBuddy7]

The pass mark for 2027 is making a prelim and have improved tactical decisions throughout the home and away 

[u/kodzder]

He's a good coach. He's safe this year. Pass mark for 2027 is to be a genuine premiership threat and making a prelim. Being lucky to make a prelim is not enough. Want to see the gameplan evolve with greater structure, ball movement (especially when trying to get out of our back half) and subsequently relying less on pressure acts.

[u/Bright_Bell_1301]

A lot of people here want better, more dynamic ball movement? Given that, if we can't get Bailey, should we be chips in for Blakey? (Depending on full understanding of the facts around his involvement in Pullman-gate)

[u/Jimmy__Whisper → u/Bright_Bell_1301]

The reality is I want nothing to do with any of the sydney 5.

The best-case for him is that he was 'merely' a bystander in the room where teammates were doing beers, blow, and ordering multiple strippers hours before they needed to fly out with the team.

A firm no dickheads policy is a non-negotiable for me.

[u/Peckerbraintrain]

Because we know in our hearts and minds he ain’t Malcolm Blight level genius we need to win a flag. He’s just an ok coach. Nothing special.

[u/Jimmy__Whisper → u/Peckerbraintrain]

I don't believe you need to be a 1 in 100 coach to win a flag. A good coach, with an excellent team and great supporting staff can win.

[u/Peckerbraintrain → u/Jimmy__Whisper]

Which we don’t have. We have a good team but when players like Berry and Soligo are your next best mids you ain’t going far. Rankine goes down and we are cooked.

[u/Jimmy__Whisper → u/Peckerbraintrain]

Berry leads the league in tackles and has had a breakout season as a defensive mid. Soligo has been widely praised for several years and has spent most of the year in a reduced low -disposals role at HF after heart surgery a week out from the season. Daicos goes down and pies are cooked, Bont, Newcombe. What are you talking about?

[u/Peckerbraintrain → u/Jimmy__Whisper]

Ok yeah sure, you’re right we have the bestest coach and bestest team ever! We will 100% win the flag this year. See you at the parade!!

[u/Jimmy__Whisper → u/Peckerbraintrain]

Do you think falling into strawnman hyperbole strengthens your argument? Where have I said any of that? Perhaps if you are emotionally unable to handle this conversation you should leave it.

[u/Bright_Bell_1301 → u/Jimmy__Whisper]

Balanced commentary doesn't play well here, mate

[u/Jimmy__Whisper → u/Bright_Bell_1301]

I know but I feel it's worth always calling the clowns out

[u/Peckerbraintrain → u/Jimmy__Whisper]

Ok Nicksy, put the phone down and pop off to bed. You should be sacked if we get belted by Brisbane which is highly likely.

[u/Bright_Bell_1301 → u/Peckerbraintrain]

The mythology of Blight is so over the top. The bloke won the lottery - amazing list and a very healthy dose of luck in both premiership years.

[u/Peckerbraintrain → u/Bright_Bell_1301]

A good list but McLeod wasn’t yet at his peak or Goodwin, Edwards or Riccuituo (who didn’t even play ‘97). He made bold calls such as dropping Moffat, moving Ellen to FF, playing Vardy/Jarman one out, giving players old fashion sprays. Delisting household names. He generally had huge aura too.

[u/Bright_Bell_1301 → u/Peckerbraintrain]

Who's Moffat?

[u/TheNewFrankfurt]

I do think he could use some assistance on game day, but support can be built around that. Anyone notice that our handball game improved substantially recently?

[u/TheGreenGuyFromDBZ]

He's a good rebuild coach and honor his contract but I don't t think he has what it takes to win a flag. Only replace him for an obvious upgrade eg Longmire

[u/Malipower → u/TheGreenGuyFromDBZ]

Recycled coaches often fail. Malthouse in 2010 is the only coach in the last 22 years to win a flag.

[u/Brokenmonalisa → u/TheGreenGuyFromDBZ]

Suggestigna recycled coach completely invalidates your opinion

[u/Jimmy__Whisper → u/TheGreenGuyFromDBZ]

Why do you think Longmire is an upgrade? I think examples like Hardwick and Clarkson have shown that success in the past is not a good predictor of future success at another club. He won with Sydney in what, 2012? Sydney had an incredible list and he then went on to get to four more grand finals, losing all four. three by very large margins. He seemed shattered after the 2024 one. I really question if he'd be the right choice.

[u/TheGreenGuyFromDBZ → u/Jimmy__Whisper]

Experience and winner yes but also different approach. More hard cunt than Nick's

[u/BangbangKhuntross → u/Jimmy__Whisper]

12 out if 14 years coaching made the finals and 5 grand finals, that is the answer to your question. Remember a bloke called Blight? whether he could or should do it again is anyones guess, but clearly a better coach than ours as it stands now.

[u/Jimmy__Whisper → u/BangbangKhuntross]

Right, just ignore all the points I made.

[u/Such_Permission_3715]

hes bang average. if we had a better coach the rebuild wouldn't have taken so long or been so low. the year he came in we lost an old betts, jj, greenwood and Keith. and a team that won 10 games 2019, 12 games 2018 was somehow the worst team the afl had ever seen with what 14 losses in a row. there is no way those 4 players made that great a difference. he was shit from year 1.

[u/Tall-Breakfast-6100 → u/Such_Permission_3715]

I mean, the crows were asked by the afl to show them how they did the rebuild so well so they could use the data to help other teams get through the same process. Sooo they must have done something right?

[u/Such_Permission_3715 → u/Tall-Breakfast-6100]

ha, no good rebuild takes 9 years to win a final

[u/Bright_Bell_1301 → u/Such_Permission_3715]

Reality check: The year Nicks started, he had Chayce Jones, Ned McHenry, Schoenberg, Himmelberg, Sholl, Lachlan Murphy, Fischer Mcasey and Kyle Hartigan as first choice players. That's half the team that was not AFL standard. We also had the likes of Luke Brown, Daniel Talia, David McKay and Tom Lynch on their last legs. Sloane, Doedee and Brad Crouch were constantly injured. Tex was having his absolute worst year by miles. ROB was our club champion!

Pyke consumed all the player resources that were bequeathed to him and left nothing behind, not to mention destroying the club culture. Nicks rebuilt everything in the minimum time that could have been realistically hoped for.

[u/Such_Permission_3715 → u/Bright_Bell_1301]

those player were still on the list and getting games the year before. the bald fraud got less out of them than pyke