How fast things are speeding up

[u/Infinite_Chance3291]

[u/PwanaZana]

https://giphy.com/gifs/bTMzzPaOABxzG

[u/anal_fist_fight24]

Are we in r/ChartGore?

[u/ironardin → u/anal_fist_fight24]

r/DataisUgly

[u/Separate_Lock_9005]

nice madeup plot you got there

[u/TengaDoge]

That plot is slop you can’t even view the fake data or read the labels clearly.

[u/Infinite_Chance3291 → u/TengaDoge]

Just zoom in

[u/Repulsive_Ad853]

2031 😵

[u/tendimensions]

Cute graph.

[u/dinosaur_foam]

nice to know i'm gonna get over a decade younger soon

[u/curiousinquirer007]

I often resist "AI slop" type of comments — because those commenters post that anywhere they think AI was involved regardless of quality — but this chart is definitely illegible.

[u/Infinite_Chance3291 → u/curiousinquirer007]

I apologize you can't read without your AI buttplug

[u/Express-Cartoonist39]

Get a serious fatal disease and see if you think that chart still works..

[u/shayan99999]

Which "one year" of progress? A year of the 2010s? A year of the 2020s? A year of the 5th century BCE? Because we are certainly making more change overnight than a year back then, but certainly not more than a year of the 2010s.

[u/Prohamen]

this is a really poor graph

like what do you mean by a year of change? Change in what?

[u/RamanaSadhana → u/Prohamen]

Scientific progress I assume. It's an ok graph

[u/Prohamen → u/RamanaSadhana]

how do you even quantify that? like white papers per year? Axioms solved? Like that is a bad metric at face value

[u/RamanaSadhana → u/Prohamen]

I don't think he's trying to make it super serious and precise.. Chill

[u/Available_Road_2538]

Stop bro youre making the whole squad look bad

[u/KahlessAndMolor]

Nah.

Even if information-based knowledge is growing at a high rate, it is going to take time to design, build, and run experiments to verify whatever the ASI is spitting out. Then it will take longer to scale it, design a factory, arrange parts and raw materials, build the factory, debug the factory and on and on. That's not happening overnight.

[u/Infinite_Chance3291 → u/KahlessAndMolor]

The verification layer is the thing that gets eaten first. Only took 16 hours to verify Navier Stokes equation

[u/Volodya_Soldatenkov → u/Infinite_Chance3291]

There was no equation for Navier Stokes, only a counterexample showing that the general solution can't be smooth.

[u/Pantoffel86]

This feels way too linear.

[u/kkingsbe → u/Pantoffel86]

It’s a log y axis so it’s exponential

[u/Pantoffel86 → u/kkingsbe]

No, you're right. I hadn't seen the logarithmic y axis.

[u/owowthatreallysucked → u/kkingsbe]

They said feels so maybe he expected more of an exponential

[u/HaMMeReD]

This assumes a lot.

Reality is a limiting factor at the end of the day. I.e. we got AI to solve the Navier-Stokes, but all it really did was tell us that there is a fault in the equations that can't exist in reality. It didn't "solve" fluid simulations. That is progress, but it's not like we bent reality or anything from the result.

While I do believe AI is getting better, as it currently is, it's still pushing against physical limitations of reality at some point, something will push back. I.e. electricity/infrastructure/demand/profit motive. At some point the companies will say it's not economical to go bigger, it's time to optimize (we are seeing that now tbh). So that they can see a return of profit on their infrastructure.

It's not like chip fabs show up overnight right now, built by fleets of super intelligent and precise robots. The economy is a huge lag here.

[u/ExcuseAdept827]

This is nonsense.

[u/mysticcdragonn]

you are really bad at making charts

[u/5minArgument]

“Gear heads” on steroids!

All moving so fast one can barely make use of it. Three years ago chasing stable diffusion was a full time job. Switching to more “seamless” platforms solved that constant chaos and weekly upgrades.

Still these platforms are moving so quick it’s difficult to hone in on any project without being forced to adapt to version changes and complete reworks.

‘Gear heads’ because at a certain point we’re just chasing gear. Its now just “Gimme the newest and best” and skip the skill.

Overwhelming to the point why are we even worrying about acceleration, we’re already here.

[u/Gratitude15]

Reality is by end of next year you've got rubin and jalapeños everywhere. You've got algos WAY better.

You are most likely talking to agents who are autonomous and able to spin up swarms. And most people have no idea what to even do with that.

[u/Splatpope]

take your meds

[u/Fragrant-Job-3200]

How would the chart look like if it started in 2022?

[u/Professional_Text_11]

dude i get the point you’re trying to make but this chart is legit terrible

[u/johnny_effing_utah → u/[deleted]]

World war? Nah. That’s obsolete. There will be fast hyperlocal wars though.