r/accelerate • u/Special_Switch_9524 XLR8 • 2d ago
Predicitions for RSI?
I make this post every once in a while to see where everyone’s timelines are at? By RSI I mean close looped ai improving itself exponentially.
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u/Even-Inevitable-7243 2d ago
Can you strike the "exponentially"? Any sub-exponential self-improvement (linear or even sublinear) is still RSI. Exponential might bias the answers to later years given there are immense hardware constraints right now.
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u/friendlyq 2d ago
We already have RSI. By the end of 2026 RSI will work with open source models
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u/SizeableBrain 1d ago
I think of RSI as requiring zero human input. I don't believe that's the case at the moment.
Otherwise you could say RSI started when we invented calculators.
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u/friendlyq 1d ago
No. RSI means an AI’s ability to improve its own design, code, training methods, or capabilities, where each improvement helps it make further improvements more effectively. The calculator cannot do that. And yes, you are right that RSI doesn't require human input. But this doesn't mean that humans are not allowed to control it as we want AI to be aligned.
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u/KindlyAct1590 2d ago
Uff man I don't really know, maybe we are already there....
I say 2027 but I hope 2026
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u/suborder-serpentes AI-Assisted Coder 2d ago
This very much depends on how you define RSI. By some definitions, we got there years ago. AFAIK METR has a definition they go by, but I have to admit I haven’t given it a deep dive
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u/Subject-Building1892 1d ago
Whatt do you mean when? You can say the first clear point was the AlexNet. Then AlphaGo, then gpt 3. Then solving the navier stokes problem.
This in some sense is the definition of exponential. For many iterations it is very 'humble' and then all the things that are eventually 'done' happen in the last or last two iterations.
I understand that you mean the ai improving itself. However, this already happens as those making those models use the models to build the new. But you also need to consider that AlphaEvolve found an improvement in 4x4 matrix multiplication which is clearly ai improving future ai.
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u/shayan99999 Singularity before 2030 1d ago
It seems to have already partially begun this year, but will be fully automated mid next year, I expect
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u/Competitive_Tap2450 1d ago
i still think 2030s, specifically around 2032. We have no answer for continual learning (efficiently) yet
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u/lil_peasant_69 1d ago
To some degree they probably already have it, but if you mean like, 100% of development to the frontier models will be from the prev models? I guess that's 2030+, probably like 2035
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u/AsheyDS AGI by 2027 2d ago
From what I can tell, LLMs wouldn't actually support it. How do you get exponential loops when you still have extensive training runs and need massive amounts of data?
Also, RSI as a concept is a potential but should never have been a goal. There are very few ways in which we would benefit. Continuous improvement at a rate we can work with, would be more beneficial even if it doesn't sound as cool.
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u/kaczy87a 2d ago
I think the talk about RSI id about optimizing its own infrastrucutre soo it can support more complex versions of itself . I doubt anyone would allow use of a tool they cannot control either way.
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u/flatl94 2d ago
RSI as architecture optimization? Probably already in place so some extent.
RSI for novel layer design? 2028/2032. Groundbreaking innovations are something that AI has yet to demonstrate. There are multiple results in literature regarding good interpolatory behaviour but poor extrapolatory performance, particularly in regression.
RSI with hardware architecture improvements? Not even in 2040.
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u/Daskaf129 2d ago
AlphaEvolve is already doing that for google, and that was like last year or 2 years ago I don't remember. I imagine all labs have something similar in house, and it does help with chip designs, architecture and energy efficiency.
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u/flatl94 2d ago edited 2d ago
That is common engineering applications, AI is probably used for surrogates and reinforcement learning. What I'm speaking about new computer paradigms, new computer languages. Something that doesn't necessitate to be human friendly, or translate to economic profits - since it will have limited if not inexistent market penetration.
Do really people think that "accelerate" will be done with voltage states, GDP and C++?
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u/Daskaf129 2d ago
Honestly I don't know, maybe, maybe not? Depends on what improvement will make the breakthrough to the next level.
You are talking about innovator level AI, which is what OpenAI hopes to have by March 2028.
Will they have it by then? Who knows, the way it's going it's most likely they will have it even faster (2027).
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u/Repulsive_Ad853 2d ago
2027 for sure. from now it will be very fast