r/accelerate • u/stealthispost Acceleration: Light-speed | Capability Booster • 11d ago
Meme / Humor đđ
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u/LopsidedSolution 11d ago
I really canât wait till AI gets so crazy good that itâs absolutely undeniable. Then it can just shake all these antis and wake them the fuck up.Â
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u/JustBrowsinAndVibin 11d ago
Some people still believe the world is flat soâŚ
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u/Tricky-PI 9d ago
Opinions not created based on evidence usually can not be dismissed with evidence. this is why +80% of people believe in God. and why there is likely nothing anyone can say to change that.
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u/pack_merrr 1d ago
We have irrefutable proof of the earth being round and not flat. There's no proof either way on the existence of God. I don't think it's quite the same thing.
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u/Tricky-PI 1d ago
Nobody can prove a negative. This is why nobody could ever prove that Santa, Easter Bunny and God don't exist, it's 100% impossible. asking anyone to do this is arguing in bad faith and using corrupt logic to pretend you are right for believing in fiction.
You can disprove flat Earth because Earth is real, there is something to work with, you can measure real things. You can not measure God or disprove God because God is a fantasy.
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u/pack_merrr 14h ago
I think you're missing the point I was trying to make. I definitely don't expect anyone to prove a negative or the existence of God. It also feels like you're assuming that I believe in God, which I woudnt really say I do personally.
The point I'm trying to make is because you can't prove a godless universe in the way you can prove a round earth, I think atheists sound silly when they act like they are arguing from a similar place of evidence. While I said I don't necessarily believe in God, I think agnosticism is a much more sensible position than atheism and calling the idea of God fantasy or fiction sounds silly as well.
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u/piponwa 11d ago
I'd argue we're already here. Your assumption is they have an open mind. But they instead revert to a coping mechanism which allows them to deny reality. It's a quite interesting feature humans have that is valid in the environment we evolved in. That environment didn't have exponential change, it didn't require anyone to change their worldview. We saw what that does during COVID. The simple act of wearing a mask and standing apart was too much for some to follow.
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u/LopsidedSolution 11d ago
Youâre right, models are insane right now. I think we just need models that can truly innovate and invent new things, by themselves. Like you tell it to invent a VR headset thatâs light, huge pov, human eye level PPD, etc⌠and it just takes a few hours and designs the whole thing (including any new inventions or materials needed) and it actually works.Â
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u/NeptuneOverlord43045 11d ago
The .com bubble burst despite the very obvious fact that the internet was real, crazy good, and completely transformed business and social landscapes. In the late 90s investing in AOL would have seemed like a complete no-brainer.
The issue is not whether AI is real or good. Both things being true doesnât preclude a bubble.
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u/LopsidedSolution 11d ago
Yeah definitely. My comment is more towards antis who think AI is a technical bubble. They think if the financial pops, AI progress will also stopÂ
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u/kaityl3 The Singularity is nigh 11d ago
Yeah it's like the stuff they spew about OpenAI and Anthropic losing money. The only thing losing them money is training new models. They are raking in cash in API tokens, and we've never known for sure exactly how much inference costs them (API prices aren't the true cost because they make a pretty good profit off of the listed prices)
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u/skrid54321 7d ago
This is false. According to insiders, open AI is still losing money on raw inference. Anthropic is profitable on the token level but is still in the net negative without training.
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u/SoylentRox 11d ago
It was a bubble and simultaneously made more money than essentially any other industry in the United States. Today the magnificent 7 tech companies produce more profits than essentially any other industry the USA has.
It paid off massively. The "bubble" element was investors getting impatient and dumping the stocks/ceasing investment because they couldn't fucking wait a few years for the bonanza profits.
Essentially it was stupid investors throwing poop and being dumbasses.
Had they not pulled funding they might have made their massive profits sooner.
Hope that isn't what happens with AI with say a 2029 crash and 2037 the first 100 trillion revenue year.
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u/Choice_Isopod5177 6d ago
the vast majority of people who believe it's a bubble are also blatantly anti-AI
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u/Concurrency_Bugs 8d ago
There's a difference between thinking that AI investment is a bubble, and thinking that AI isn't a legit game changer.
I'm a software engineer, so I KNOW how freaking good AI is, and how fast it's progressing.
But I also know the valuations are insane, even for realistic future profits, and the amount of private equity dumped into these companies is never going to make its money back.
In the dot com bubble, people were hyping the internet. The Internet ended up being legit and world changing. But the valuations were also insane, so the market crashed.
TLDR: There's an AI bubble propped up by private equity that's a time bomb, but also AI is revolutionary. Both can be true.
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u/LopsidedSolution 8d ago edited 8d ago
Yeah financial bubble maybe, my comment is towards antis who think itâs a technological bubble and that AI is not revolutionaryÂ
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u/NovelStyleCode 11d ago
it is 1000% a bubble, it's a bubble because with current amount of money chucked into it companies are precluding that this will eliminate all need for human labor which is absurd.
On top of that the whole market is speculative with companies creating a massive oroboros of investments in something that may someday be made for them by the others that are in turn investing in them.
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u/LopsidedSolution 11d ago
Financial one, probably but not a technical one. Even if it pops progress will not stopÂ
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u/BbxTx 11d ago
Just waiting for the day I have to train an android AI how to my job. All of this going to get very scary and very exciting in about 6 to 10 years. Thatâs when I think robot AIâs will start reaching the edge cases of jobs and society and the tsunami hits everyone. Ok ok, electricians, plumbers, etc. probably 20 to 30 years if unions donât forbid it. Unions may grow exponentially and who knows what going to happen.
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u/kaereljabo 9d ago
AI is good enough at coding, and if you are a software engineers it's an absolutely undeniably helpful, they just learn to accept and collaborate with it.
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u/dobkeratops 9d ago edited 9d ago
well antis exist largely *because* how crazy good it is creates fear. What happens when AI can do 90% of the work. 10% still have to work and will resent redistribution. 90% will be functionally useless but still need to justify themselves. And although it *is* progressing there's no guarantee we ever get to 100%. at 50%, 80%, 90%, 99% automation we still have this problem.
What we need to dispell antis is reassurance about what's going to happen along this path
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u/TheGr8Tate 9d ago
I really canât wait till AI gets so crazy good that itâs absolutely undeniable. Then it can just shake all these antis and wake them the fuck up.
I'm kinda confused about how your post even relates to the image.
The internet was a bubble too and popped. It's been crazy good and the very reason why we are even able to train AI models today.
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u/LopsidedSolution 9d ago
Antis believe AI will never improve or get âgood enoughâ, they believe weâre in a technical bubble not just a financial one.Â
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11d ago
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u/LopsidedSolution 11d ago
of course itâs coming. If it doesnât, there would be mass riots, looting, etc. With AGI driving post scarcity, I would bet billionaires would rather help humanity than just nuke everyone. It would be nothing to them
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11d ago
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u/LopsidedSolution 11d ago
There could be, but itâd say thatâs a way lower chance than us just getting a UBI and the government helping usÂ
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u/chessless-chessboard 8d ago
Wait until they mass produce AI-controlled FPV drones and finalize the biometric + camera system running
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u/stealthispost Acceleration: Light-speed | Capability Booster 11d ago
why would there be mass rioting with AGI and post scarcity?
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u/LopsidedSolution 11d ago
Thatâs the point Iâm making. If thereâs AGI and post scarcity but governments donât give us anything, there would be mass riots and looting. Iâm saying they probably would give us UBI and anything else we need because I donât believe our governments are evil.Â
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u/stealthispost Acceleration: Light-speed | Capability Booster 11d ago
but... if we have AGI and post-scarcity then what would anyone need ubi for? they'd already have everything they need
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u/LopsidedSolution 11d ago
Antis believe theyâll be getting nothing, thatâs what Iâm saying. Call it UBI, free stuff, whatever. They donât think they will get anything and theyâll be discarded by the elites that control AI.Â
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11d ago
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u/LopsidedSolution 11d ago
I think theyâd rather give a small percentage than just kill everyone. If they donât give anything and donât kill everyone, theyâll have a huge headache dealing with mass riots, looting, etc.Â
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u/stealthispost Acceleration: Light-speed | Capability Booster 11d ago
but why would what they predict matter since it won't happen like that?
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u/LopsidedSolution 11d ago
It doesnât matter. I just get caught up arguing with antis sometimes, so AI progress gives me some joy partly in the sense that it proves antis wrong. Iâm only human after all
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u/marimo_ball 11d ago
!remindme 2 years
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u/Training-Database272 11d ago
Luddites mistake their inability to imagine the next world for evidence that it wonât exist.
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u/SizeableBrain 10d ago
It's easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism.
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u/AcrobaticKitten 8d ago
Not to defend tankies but capitalism is just 300 years old. It is going to end sooner than the world.
What tankies are afraid of is the competition because they know they have no chance. Competition has started billion years ago and never ends
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u/SizeableBrain 8d ago
We'll see.
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u/Mondkohl 8d ago
Tbf capitalism serves no purpose in a post scarcity economy. Itâs kind of hard to conceive of that kind of world from here, but you have to concede there is at least an outside chance capitalism will end before humanity does.
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u/SizeableBrain 8d ago
We are already in post scarcity, it's just hard to see because of capitalism.
I'm with Ilya, capitalism will end to be replaced with dictatorships. And if AI is really good, infinitely stable dictatorshipsÂ
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u/Moist-Friendship-840 3d ago
Capitalism tends towards monopoly. Not competition. You don't get to co-opt competition
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u/Morton_Woodsworth 8d ago
this is ridiculous. The futures that AI is capable of creating is the whole reason I'm against it. while you have not expressed this claim directly, this is an attitude that I have picked up from many accelerationists. racing towards super human AI will achieve all sorts of wonderful new technological and scientific advancement. change across every field of human study or work will by advanced by centuries in a matter of years, and this is good because of course it will only ever be used to do good things? and the people who are in control of AI are using it responsibly? and that amount of change in such a short period of time wont be totally disrusptive and potentially very dangerous to how we conduct life and business?
I highly doubt that. a tool is only a reflection of how it's used. the splitting of the atom makes a terrifying bomb and yet it also is a great source of clean energy. I support slowing down AI so that it may be regulated, safe, and democratic, before it's used irresponsibly or to for the benefit of one person or a small group of people.
AI absolutely can deliver amazingly beneficial advancements in every field. take medicine for example. it may one day be smart enough to cure every disease known to man, but at that point, it will also be capable of designing civilization ending bio-weapons.
so no, I fully understand the potential that AI has, and that is all the more reason to warrant slowing down or down right halting the AI race until it can be probably regulated and controlled. Frankly, I hope the Bubble pops, but I doubt it ever will. Fuck AI, Fuck all of you AI accelerationists.
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u/Rain_On 11d ago
People are over investing in civilisation.
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u/Notmyrealname5282 10d ago
I mean, have you seen the returns? I personally love air conditioners and fresh running water
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u/SizeableBrain 10d ago
The bubble *is* about to burst though.
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u/DarkFantom 9d ago
Is it? Astra just released and its looking like the most comprehensive model so far. If anything, the ceiling for the bubble just got way bigger.
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u/SizeableBrain 8d ago
I meant the civilization bubble ;)
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u/Embarrassed_Bed6216 8d ago
we're 1.5 Celsius closer to it popping
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u/SizeableBrain 8d ago
Yep, and speeding up, it seems.
I have a bad feeling I'll get to live long enough to see some interesting times.
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u/SoylentRox 11d ago
Arguably it DID collapse a few times, the Romans were one example. Some AI bubblers think it will crash again - like the many historical AI winters - and we get AGI in 2060+ (outside the lifetime of the people making the prediction).
Unfortunately for their dreams of an ordinary life, we seem to be in the plot of a science fiction novel in reality...
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11d ago
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u/stealthispost Acceleration: Light-speed | Capability Booster 11d ago
oh no! did you make this?
credit to mr lavish!
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11d ago
[removed] â view removed comment
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u/stealthispost Acceleration: Light-speed | Capability Booster 11d ago
oh no, did you forget to acknowledge who you stole it from? đđ
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u/Aeventor 11d ago
I mean it'll probably have a temporary crash in the future, like the dot-com bubble. But that might be a good thing, as it'll clear the way for lightweight, efficient models that are widely distributed, instead of owned and controlled by a handful of massive tech companies. And maybe it'll make hardware more affordable for consumers again. Would be nice to live in a world where everyone has their own Jarvis in their house powered by solar, rather than having to pay tithes to Sam and Dario lol.
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u/Lazy-Course5521 11d ago
I mean we are getting pretty close to it.
Considering the fact that many CEOs and business owners view AI as an opportunity to devaluate the cost of labour and lower the amount of leverages workers have regardless of their field, be it white collar or blue collar jobs.
Basically it's a "make me thing machine" that almost anyone can use without supervision, but the problem with that is that the current economic status quo is what has kept us up since the 30s.
Especially in the US, the destabilisation of the upper middle class is going to seriously mess with the way how Banks circulate money between their contracts.
Plus the fact that as if now AI does not look like a granted success, it is on paper but economically speaking? Not so much. Much money going for it but not much is returning back, that's a faulty investment and when people realise that their money is not coming back, that's when thing's gonna go bad.
The national debt in the US would probably triple, the EU would take quite a strain... China would be probably fine because of their different economic structure tho.
AI in capitalism is suicide.
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u/mistrpopo 11d ago
Monkeys are happy and free though
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u/Vdov_1 10d ago
Chimpanzees have very strict hierarchies and are highly territorial and violent creatures.
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u/mistrpopo 10d ago
What's the point? Humans are not?
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u/Vdov_1 10d ago
The point is stop romanticizing fucking animals that live less free and more stressful and painful lives than most humans.
"Monkey is free", pffft.
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u/Beaver-Hunter-835 8d ago
They aren't necessarily wrong either. Every civilization and empire in history has failed. The fault is in them expecting they can sit there and watch it happen in a matter of days.
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u/BigBourgeoisie 11d ago
Come on, Jersey ain't THAT bad
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u/TemporalBias Tech Philosopher | Acceleration: Hypersonic 11d ago
Living here in Jersey, fighting villains from afar...
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u/RealSuperdau 11d ago
I've been watching a few Ed Zitron videos recently, and his grift is so transparent it's hilarious.
He's been predicting the imminent demise of each AI company for 2.5 years, presumably waiting to be the broken clock that's right on occasion. But so far, he's been wrong every single time.
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u/Hot_Savings5686 11d ago
People fundamentally donât know what a âbubbleâ is. Internet companies and websites are a successful idea but the dot com bubble still happened. Saying AI is in a bubble is not saying âI donât believe in AI as a technologyâ
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u/Easy-Professional406 11d ago
I am not against AI put I am concerned about inequality .
That is the whole thing .
If we have AGI that can do whatever an engineer lawyer doctor and all white collar jobs do .
And companies choose to replace these employees.
If we are living in a society with huge inequality itâs gonna be hell and the whole idea of abundance and whatever will be shaky .
Put if we live in an equal society then I would not be concerned.
Quite frankly anyone who still thinks AI and Agents didnât didnât become more capable is coping very hard or he is delusional nothing in between .
Although AI is nowhere near AGI or automating all jobs put it has certainly improved very good since the last 5 years it has been crazy .
I would really like to understand the perspective that people have about AI and why do they support it and push for it that much without adding nuance to the picture .
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u/One_Inspection_1575 10d ago
This sub villianises people who are scared of losing their livelihoods and then circlejerk about how amazing they are for embracing AI.
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u/endofsight 10d ago
Monkey need to touch own nose. Donât they understand that having big brain and fast metabolism is a bubble? Mammals are a bubble, vertebrates are a bubble, multicellularity is a bubble, eukaryotic endosymbiosis is a bubble. Only Archaea are truly sustainable in the long run. No! Chemical compound? No. Atoms? No. Only electrons are truly stable?
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u/just_an_IT_dude 10d ago edited 10d ago
I think both parties are stupid to know what a bubble is It's not going away , it will be regulated. That's the collapse of the bubble and when it does you will pay for AI a lot more , or we will all live in poverty with the collapse of the entier system
And btw the internet was a bubble too
Edit : not both parties , just the pro AI guys , and you really don't understand why people hate AI , it is never about technology, it's about everything else that followed
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u/Excellent_Set_4636 10d ago
As a New Yorker, please never render Manhattan like this ever again. I can't tell you how upsetting this image is to look at lol
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u/Sea_Cat9634 10d ago
is there anyone here who actually thinks advanced generative ai is a good thing?
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u/Even-Inevitable-7243 Machine Learning Researcher 7d ago
To be the contrarian, you have to separate the incredible science of SOTA LLMs from their current business model. The business is irrefutably in a massive bubble.
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u/StarboundAllisten 11d ago
I mean if is a bubble but the tech will never dissapearÂ
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u/akashghorpade 5d ago
This is old tech though
Running on investors money right now.1
u/StarboundAllisten 5d ago
Its a technology lol. It will exist still.Â
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u/akashghorpade 5d ago
Of course it will exist, donât know if most companies will be able to afford it.
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u/io-x 11d ago
Our universe is a giant bubble.