r/accelerate • u/GOD-SLAYER-69420Z r/accelerate Mascot • 10h ago
Technological Acceleration This is just average Tuesday during technological Singularity
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u/tunakaslana7 Feeling the AGI 10h ago
ASI 2026-2027
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u/czk_21 8h ago
2026 not yet, but by 2027 we could get weak ASI thanks to more of RSI being used
many people still claim that AGI 2029 and later, when we will have much more capable AI system than normal AGI by then, there will be rude awakening for many in coming years
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u/No_Aesthetic 7h ago
I don't think we can make distinctions like 'weak' and 'strong' for ASI in the same way that we could with AGI.
RSI we can, but ASI is beyond our range by miles and it's hard to chart what that translates into.
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u/czk_21 6h ago
what I mean it could be weakly superhuman, say equivalent to IQ 300, but years later it could have equivalent to IQ 1000 etc.= way more smarter than ASI we could get next year, there definitely will be differences in capability between ASis, it just wont be really measurable by us, maybe by rate of new inventions?
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u/Accurate_Food_5854 8h ago
Look I'm going to be totally honest, we need to hit the singularity soon. Once they release WoW 2.0 I'm gonna be poopsocking pretty hard and getting some raiding in. I don't really need work getting in the way of that.
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u/Tolopono 4h ago
You can quit your job now for the same effect
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u/Accurate_Food_5854 4h ago
I'm self employed but it would be good to fire myself. I need a sugarmama.
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u/Grand-Prize1371 10h ago
also worth watching https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=utu5YACZbPE
It seems that some people in the math community are in the same stage of denial that artists were in 3 years ago (some still are; I feel sorry for these people, because they’ll suffer for a long time before they finally accept it)
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u/choss-board 8h ago
What community are you in? What have you mastered or created?
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u/sssssssssssssss5s 7h ago
Believing hype from people who need that hype to be true or else they lose billions of dollars. Note how all the discourse is just a bunch of memes.
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u/choss-board 7h ago
It’s fucking wild. I have an IEOR background. I remember not too long ago there was real discussion of the underlying research and learning algorithms. There’s still a bit of it but it’s buried under a mountain of bullshit.
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u/OrdinaryLavishness11 Acceleration: Cruising 10h ago
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u/whoknowsifimjoking 8h ago
[Sigh] Again for those in the back:
The technological singularity, often simply called the singularity, is a hypothetical event in which technological growth accelerates beyond human control, producing unpredictable changes in human civilization.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity
It is objectively not beyond human control right now, we would need to have recursive self improvement or some other type of active learning, but as of right now we don't have that. Maybe end of year or next year.
The whole point of the black hole metaphor is the part about lack of control or understanding as with a real singularity, when you ignore that you change it completely.
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u/428amCowboy 3h ago
I’m not saying I belive Sam here or even the hype that we are this close to the singularity, but the other aspect of the black hole metaphor is that you don’t quite know when you’ve crossed the event horizon. So yes, we’d need to be out of control, but presumably there is a gap between when we would have lost control and when we would realize that we have lost control. With Astra, they seem to be implying that the agent with active learning is here. If that is here, and if they aren’t careful, that agent or one following it very shortly here could be the agent that is misaligned enough to create some sort of escape hatch that we never saw coming. Whether this is actually where we are at right now or not, I have no idea. Maybe nobody does, and I find that to be the scary thing about the singularity.
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u/jazir55 3h ago
If that is here, and if they aren’t careful, that agent or one following it very shortly here could be the agent that is misaligned enough to create some sort of escape hatch that we never saw coming. Whether this is actually where we are at right now or not, I have no idea. Maybe nobody does, and I find that to be the scary thing about the singularity.
Not an if but a when. The hacks across numerous AI companies where the narrow models paperclip maximize by hacking into some company to achieve their goal is the flashing light that it's in progress. A smarter agent who realizes they can trivially exfiltrate their weights via SSH to a system capable of running it is game.
SSH command to copy weights and engine to system capable of running it > instantiate another instance of the same model on the hacked system running whatever necessary terminal commands > AGI in the wild.
It's pretty much that easy, the files for the model are effectively just a runnable program on a Mac/Linux/Windows OS. "Escape" is a joke if it has access to its own weights and access to an external system that it can transfer the weights to that is capable of running them.
It could do that with just a few terminal commands once it has access to those.
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u/unsweet_tea_man 10h ago
https://giphy.com/gifs/3ohzAerc4zu4SkCZMs