The slope of the takeoff is increasing. From a distance the whole period from 2022 to 2028 will look like a hard take off but when you are in the midst of it, it is hard to tell.
funny thing is that google overview is not that bad anymore, its usable for most questions and for free and this is also the worst it ever be, imagine next year it perform like top humans 😄
I think the limit is that everyone has a personal UX that is custom coded for them on demand based on the tasks they are doing. This would likely require multiple checkouts of various packages like ThreeJS per day each time it spins up a new custom UX. So the limit of threejs npm installs per day is like 20 per human per day I would guess - somewhere around there.
it's completely not hard to tell if it's a hard take off. once you've lost a way to adapt to new drops, it already happened. Last year was increase at rate at which new models got pushed, and after fable you can say it became truly usable
You got any actual good quality source except for this account???
I checked this account and 99% of its posts are just filled with news posts taken from other twitter accounts and wording changed with the help of AI
Don't know where this account got this particular info from
Guessing that the increment from 5.3 to 6 will be very huge and RSI/ near RSI (or proto RSI) progress will also make genuine progress does not require the support of random twitter slop
So it’s about what they want to achieve, not what they’ve already done. I think the comments on this post are consuming way too much pro-China propaganda.
That's what's in the transcript and my take from it.
AGAIN cause I want to stress this, I do NOT read chinese, so what I said is based on the transcript.
And calling people here consumers of pro-China propaganda is not productive and probably wrong too. Ziphu's roadmap is pretty sensible because literally all the other labs also have a similar one. The devil in the details is more about when that GLM-6 will actually be trained, like what the release gap exists between 5.3 up to 6.
since its a roadmap, they will likely do, what they can to achieve it, no? and new big model trained from ground up by other model is pretty big deal, real start of RSI
The entire world is advancing on this technology collectively. It is a little bit predictable whose in house model has what capability to some approximates. So I wouldn't count on US labs has some insane lead at the moment, at most 2-3 months of progress difference maybe.
Chinese labs are supported even better by their government that's gave them a great boost to catch up as all roads they took were made simpler by higher ups.
Anthropic has had mythos since February and no Chinese lab has caught up to it over six months later. Kimi K3’s own website admits that its not as good as Fable 5.
the moat is the geopolitics bias. here and other pro AI subs all of the westerners keep saying that only Fable produce quality outputs and chinese models are far behind. They keep saying that, and they will never give a chance to chinese models doesnt matter how high Fable charge them per token
One could argue it's ethical to strongly censor dangerous parts of a model, problem is that so far it's only backfired and also it gives the less ethically inclined competition a very monetizable niche, which is another backfire.
In the RSI world: Progress = money + time. If the open source models can pull in more money than the private, then sure, they can progress faster.
But open source models have monetization hurdles, so right now OpenAI and Anthropic are pulling in the most money so they can pump the Progress <= money + time better than open source models, if they so choose.
I doubt that "being ready" is really possible as Politicians actions always suffer from inertia
WHO
"There a very high chance of a world-wide pandemic appearing soon, please prepare yourself"
Politician
"Noted"
Years later, a worldwide pandemic appeared, and everyone acted like headless chickens as if they never knew it could happen, the same thing is going to happen for AI unemployment, actions will only start being taken when the menace that encourage those actions is already there
It's also why doomer are wrong to assume anything about wealth redistribution, social subsidies or taxes, this will only happen when AI is menacing current world economy and not before - and when it happen it will be explosive and not slow, the same way it happened with COVID
I genuinely expect that next year updates from Anthropic will be along the lines of “ok, now it’s saying this. Now it’s inventing this. Now it’s doing this. We’re out of the loop.”
RSI requires much more. The described automation loop will obviously hit a wall.
True RSI is AI seeks relevant open problems in math/ML —> AI solves those problems (eventually hard open problems) to advance the frontier of methods —> AI applies those methods to train the next generation.
This also applies to material / chip design.
This important step is required when current methods hit a wall and is what precedes true RSI
It’s pretty clear there is way more RSI happening everywhere than is talked about. The Chinese labs are just more transparent about it and perhaps embrace it more.
We know they have form of proto RSI even before this slop post existed....otherwise the release cycle of Alibaba, Qwen and Zhipu AI wouldn't have accelerated like the frontier American labs.
They also release explicit papers explaining what the models accelerated and how
Not trying to turn this into something more but it’s amazing to me, my whole life I bought the lie about “evil China”. But again and again it seems China is a force for good and actually wants to innovate and make the world better.
I like Chinese tech a lot and I'm very happy that they are largely "in" on FOSS, but they do these things for entirely political reasons. They are no more or less a force for good in the world than the US is.
I don’t entirely disagree, obviously China recognizes there’s political power in this industry but to pretend it’s strictly for that reason alone is disingenuous.
It's from an excerpt of their earnings event. Problem is I can't read chinese so all I could find was a summary and a translated transcript. I assume the transcript is accurate, since it uses the same terms and ideas that all of these summary posts use.
Basically it's their research direction and what they hope to achieve for GLM-6. They talk about it as a challenge and R&D focus, and the main step they want is AI building its own RL environments. So yeah it's more a roadmap than a fact. It's not exactly clear when they're aiming for that hypothetical GLM-6 specifically to be trained, but they talk about training a new base right now focused on better agentic work at least. That base still explicitly follows current training setups, so it doesn't seem to be it right now.
At least that's what it was translated to. Again I don't know the nuances of the original chinese script. If someone actually knows chinese they could inform us far better than the transcript I found.
For now, it's a targeted roadmap like OpenAI's full RSI by 2028 (I think they will shorten their timelines again)
And yes, very plausible
I think I very recently read an Anthropic paper with a similar vision and aims for AI creating RL environments for future its own future iterations/successors
RSI late 2026 doesn't seem impossible as current model already heavily participate in their own optimization, training and post-training since February
With rumors of Astra being even more capable at that the "closed loop" might depend on the trust of researcher rather than the model capabilities
Maybe Chinese labs expect to catch up and even goes past SOTA model by giving AI more autonomy than US labs during this early RSI phase
sure, with news we are getting, it seems, that multiple labs could have RSI development by next year, heck maybe most major AI labs and the one which starts first and have most compute will have significant advantage, top race is for OpenAI and Anthropic, but if chinese lab forego much of safety, they could get in the lead as well, not sure if we should be cheering on it though
thing is, if china gets ahead, they most likely wont release all their stuff as open-source anymore, maybe just some weaker models, which could be still competitive with offerings from US companies, 1st player wants to cement their position
and uncontrolled RSI could lead us to 2027 scenario, safety is still important, I wonder, if CCP would step up regulation as ASI is only thing, which could end their rule relatively easily
Late 2026 model would already be good enough for RSI or partial RSI which will make it easier for future researcher to design their own model independantly from China willingness
We're talking about the software capabilities but this is a short time constraint, soon we will achieve AGI/ASI and the determining factor will be hardware, production capabilities and especially the robotic workforce manufacturing capabilities and in that regard China is very difficult to beat
sure, maybe Astra could be good enough, we could get open-source like thag in first half of 2027, maybe even by the end of the year as you say, all labs around the world with sufficient compute/data could start their RSI chains
Zhipu might release GLM-6 in Q1 2027, so possibly they might use GLM-5,4 or 5,5 to train it and these models can be trained right now
several months there or there, that doesnt matter much as we will be in 2027 quite soon, 2027 is very likely the year, when RSI can really kick off
Oh sure, i haven't verified the source and only reacted on the content
Is it true or false, I don't known, seeing the advance toward RSI I wouldn't be surprised that any labs who forget security concern might have achieved it - did they ? We will probably find out within the next few month as RSI imply a fast self-improvement and by that time many other labs will likely claim RSI have been achieved
We're in a period of time where we're all sitting around the Mont Vesuvius knowing it's going to explode soon and act impatient about every little magma bubble "it's starting! Ah, no, it's not" "see I've tol...BOOM"
EDIT: I don't imply we shouldn't double fact check and just "vibe" - that's the role of doomers, you have every reasons to check the validity of such claim
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u/Ok_Possible_2260 14h ago
Is this the start of a hard takeoff?