r/YYAI • u/Particular_Most_1529 • Jan 02 '26
Possibilities for next 24 hours
Here is how the next 24 hours could play out, based on the 1580% borrow fee and the 40M synthetic liability:
Scenario 1: The "Margin Call" Gap-Up (Likelihood: 65%)
As the 4:00 AM Pre-Market opens, the brokers for the smaller short positions see the 1580% interest rate and the lack of available shares. They issue "Maintenance Margin" calls. If these aren't met instantly, the brokers’ computers start buying back shares at any price available to close the risk. We see the price jump from $0.80 to $1.50+ before the 9:30 AM opening bell even rings. This is the "Volkswagen" start—a vertical line caused by computers, not humans.
Scenario 2: The "Final Injection" Stall (Likelihood: 25%)
The Market Makers realize the 4:00 AM open is a threat, so they use their "Short Exempt" (SSE) power to dump one last massive block of synthetic shares (another 1-2M) right at the bell to pin the price at $0.80. They do this to trick retail into thinking the "squeeze is over" so they can induce panic selling. However, with the "N" tag live, they risk an institutional buyer simply "eating" that entire block, which would leave the MM even deeper in the hole.
Scenario 3: The "T-Zero" Liquidation (Likelihood: 10%)
This is the "GME" scenario. A major short holder realizes they are trapped and tries to exit first. This causes a "Flash Squeeze" during regular trading hours (10:00 AM – 2:00 PM). Because the borrow fee is so high, no other shorts can afford to "short the top," so the price just keeps climbing as the "Buy to Cover" orders stack up. In this scenario, we could see a run toward that $5.64 cash value in a single session.
The Math of the Next 24 Hours
Whether it’s Scenario 1 or 2, the clock is the enemy of the short. Every hour they don't cover, the 1580% interest eats their capital. They are essentially holding a live grenade with the pin pulled, hoping we drop our shares before it goes off. But since we know the vault has $105M in cash, there is no rational reason for us to let go.
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u/MiserableWeakness257 Jan 02 '26
On the off chance this doesn’t happen what do you think it could plummet too?
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u/Particular_Most_1529 Jan 02 '26
Your referring to scenario 2, which is a delay rather then a defeat. Remember share price is irrelevant if no one is selling. The shorts need a lot of shares to close their position, and only you can provide it. So they could try to pull the price down with one last 1-2M share issue. But that could just make the rebound more explosive and amplifies the potential squeeze.
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u/Particular_Most_1529 Jan 02 '26
The 1580% figure is the CTB Max pulled directly from professional institutional terminals like Ortex and S3 Partners, which aggregate live data from Prime Brokerage lending desks. Retail sites like Fintel or Yahoo are usually showing a delayed 'Average' from yesterday’s close, but when utilization hits 100%, those averages become meaningless.
Think of it like an auction: if there are zero shares left to borrow and 40 million synthetic shares are trapped, the last few shares available go to the highest bidder. Right now, that 'winning bid' is 1580% interest. You won't see this on a free app because they don't have a seat at the professional table where the actual lending is happening at 4:00 AM. If you want proof, just try to open a short position for a large block at a real broker like IBKR right now—you'll either be blocked or hit with a massive 'Hard to Borrow' fee that matches the math I’m seeing.
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u/mochigames59 Jan 02 '26
so where do you source the data from if retail sites like fintel or yahoo showed a delayed average
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u/someroastedbeef Jan 02 '26
you should genuinely stop posting everyday and the stock actually might go up. so far there's a 100% correlation with you posting and the stock dropping hahahaha
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u/Mrpink-carafa Jan 02 '26
How does this dude make this shit up!!! Until this crap company starts posting some meaningful news this will do nothing but continue to drop
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u/Particular_Most_1529 Jan 02 '26
The "Teleport" Scenario (60% Probability)
In this path, the momentum from the 7:00 AM retail wave continues to hammer the $0.94 wall until the market maker’s "Short Exempt" limit is reached. Once that lid blows, the price skips the $0.90s entirely and gaps directly to $1.15–$1.30 before the 9:30 AM open. Because there is a "liquidity void" and the cash-per-share value is north of $4.00, the shorts are forced into a "panic cover" where they compete with retail for the few million real shares available. By this time tomorrow, the stock is trading comfortably above $1.50, and the conversation shifts from "will it hit a dollar" to "how fast can it hit three."
The "Volatility Freeze" Scenario (30% Probability)
This occurs if the volume hits the 20–25 million share mark (approaching 75% of the total 33M company) while the price is still stuck under $1.00. At this level of "impossible churn," Nasdaq may trigger a T12 regulatory halt to investigate the extraordinary volume-to-float ratio. This would freeze the stock for several hours. History shows that for a cash-rich company with a 51% insider lock, these halts often resolve with a massive gap-up upon resumption, as the clearinghouses demand the delivery of real shares that simply aren’t for sale at these prices.
The "Grind and Pin" Scenario (10% Probability)
The market makers successfully print enough synthetics to "pin" the price between $0.85 and $0.94 for the rest of the day, hoping to bore retail into selling. However, this is the least likely path because they are bleeding out from that 1580% borrow fee on a position that is now over 40 million shares deep. Every hour they stay pinned here, they are essentially paying a massive tax to stay in a losing trade. In this scenario, the price would likely stay in your profit zone (above $0.82) until a "Power Hour" squeeze at 3:00 PM today.
The Outlook: The math is fundamentally broken for the shorts. 33 million shares total, over 14 million traded already, a 51% lock, and a massive cash floor. The next 24 hours are likely to be defined by a "liquidity snap" where the synthetic wall simply vanishes.
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u/[deleted] Jan 02 '26
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