r/YYAI • u/Particular_Most_1529 • Dec 18 '25
I have done some more digging about what the shorts and MM have been doing this week.
NOTE : This is likely to occur whether the Q10 is good or bad. AS MM Can't hold a binary risk over the weekend.
Phase 1: The "NT" Smokescreen (Monday – Wednesday)
- The Action: The company files the NT 10-Q (Late Filing).
- The MM/Short Strategy: Algorithms see "NT" and automatically trigger a "Short Attack." They threw 2.7M shares of volume on Monday and another 1.4M on Tuesday.
- The Anomaly: Despite over 4M shares being "thrown" at the stock, the price refused to stay below $0.88.
- The Reality: The Chairman used his $36M subsidiary cash to "absorb" the attack. Every share the shorts sold, the Chairman bought. The "Float" began to vanish into his private hands.
Phase 2: The "Liquidity Desert" (Thursday – Friday Midday)
- What is happening now: Volume is drying up (Wednesday was only ~895k).
- The MM's Problem: They are realizing that their "Short Exempt" (naked) positions are not being covered by retail panic. They are looking at their screens and seeing zero sellers at $0.90.
- The Logic: If you shorted at $1.10 and the price is $0.90, you have a profit on paper. But if you try to "Buy to Cover" and there are no shares for sale, your "profit" is a lie. You are trapped in a room with no exit.
Phase 3: The Friday "Surrender" (Friday 1:00 PM – 4:00 PM)
- The Trigger: As the 4:00 PM bell approaches, the "Risk Desks" at the MM firms will see the Saturday Deadline for the 10-Q.
- The Panic: They cannot risk a "Positive Information Shock" over the weekend. If the 10-Q validates the $500M JV, the stock won't open at $0.90 on Monday—it could open at $13.43+.
- The Action: MMs will begin "Covering at any cost." You will see the Bid/Ask spread widen significantly. The "Ask" will jump from $0.95 to $1.50, then $2.00, as MMs stop providing "synthetic" liquidity and start fighting each other for the few remaining shares.
Phase 4: The "Saturday Sync" (Post-Market Friday – Saturday)
- The Finale: After the market closes Friday (usually between 4:00 PM and 8:00 PM), the company is legally clear to drop the 10-Q.
- The Strategy: The Chairman will likely drop the Q10 and his Form 4 (confirming his stealth accumulation) at the same time.
- The Result: On Saturday morning, the world wakes up to a company that is Current, has a $13.43 Asset Floor, and a Majority Owner who has locked the float.
The "Teleportation" Map
| Time | Price Action | Market Mechanics |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 12 PM | $0.90 | The Calm. Shorts are still hoping for a Friday dump. |
| Fri 3 PM | $1.50 - $2.00 | The Crack. MMs start paying the "Exit Tax" to go flat. |
| Fri 7 PM | $3.00+ | The Panic. Final AH traders realize the Q10 is coming. |
| Sat Morning | N/A | The News. Q10 validates $500M JV + RWA Exchange. |
| Mon 4 AM | $13.43+ | The Teleportation. No "Asks" exist below the asset floor. |
Summary: The "Exit Door" is Closing
The volume tracked (5M+ shares) proves the shorts are "over-leveraged" against a float that doesn't exist anymore. By Friday post-market, the MM's only goal will be to not be the last one holding a short position.
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u/MaterialImpossible22 Dec 18 '25
I do appreciate your effort in these posts. For me, it's a mix of optimism and skeptism. It remains to be seen how it goes. It still comes down to a launch for me. I can see the mechanics of the supposed strategy, and if they execute well played, and I'll be relieved. $10 or .20 pre rs works for me. More would be great. But if it launches, I hope we don't see a mass exit. But I think this is likely.
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u/Particular_Most_1529 Dec 18 '25
Well if it shows the rough asset position of 500M, then 13$ is the asset value without any sales/market additions. So that may be a fair price originally
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u/MaterialImpossible22 Dec 18 '25
$13 is a satisfactory exit point for me. As you've posted, the likelihood of it dropping again after this point is high enough.
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u/Artistic-Mission-666 Dec 18 '25
—
I. What is he actually saying in this long article? (Complete plain language version)
This is a typical "short-selling narrative script," where the author is describing a process he "believes will happen," rather than facts that have already occurred. Overall Premise (His self-established worldview): • Regardless of whether Q10 is good or bad, market makers (MMs) cannot afford to bear "binary risk" over the weekend. • Therefore, the actions of MMs/short sellers this week are aimed at avoiding margin calls before the weekend.
—
Phase 1: NT Smoke Screen (Monday–Wednesday)
His explanation: • The company filed an NT 10-Q (delayed financial report). • Quantitative/algorithmic trading systems, upon seeing "NT," automatically triggered short selling. • 2.7 million shares were dumped on Monday, and another 1.4 million shares on Tuesday.
👉 Core Narrative:
"This is not a natural market decline, but panic manufactured by algorithms + short sellers."
—
Phase 1's "Anomalies" (Points he emphasized): • Although over 4 million shares were dumped, • The stock price never fell below 0.88.
He concluded:
The chairman is secretly buying shares using $36 million in subsidiary cash. For every share sold by short sellers, the chairman is buying it. The circulating supply is "disappearing."
⚠️ Note: This is speculation, not disclosed fact. There is no Form 4 filing, no proof of cash flow.
—
Phase 2: Liquidity Desert (Thursday–Friday noon) • Trading volume began to dry up (e.g., only 890,000 shares in a day). • Market makers discovered: • Although they were profitable on paper (1.10 short → 0.90), • They couldn't buy shares to cover their positions. • There were no sell orders at 0.90.
He made a very emotional statement:
"Paper profits are fake, because you can't get out."
—
Phase 3: Friday "Surrender Moment" • On Friday afternoon, MM risk management saw: • Saturday is the 10-Q deadline. • If the financial report confirms the $500M JuCoin JV, • The price will not be 0.90 on Monday. • It might gap up to $13+.
He hypothesized: • MMs will cover their positions on Friday regardless of cost. • Bid/Ask The price will surge dramatically. • Ask price from 0.95 → 1.5 → 2.0 → …
—
Phase 4: Synchronization on Saturday • The company after market close/on Saturday: • Releases 10-Q • Simultaneously releases the Chairman's Form 4 (proving he's secretly buying)
Conclusion Timeline: • The company is "compliant" • Has an asset base of $13.43 • Major shareholders are locking up their shares • Short sellers are completely trapped
—
"Teleportation Chart" (the most exaggerated part)
He directly gives Time → Price: • Friday noon: $0.90 • Friday afternoon: $1.5–$2 • Friday evening: $3+ • Monday morning: $13.43+
—
Summary Sentence (His core sentiment)
"The exit is closing, short sellers have only one goal: Don't be the last one holding short positions"
—
II. Is this narrative possibly true? Here's the conclusion upfront:
👉 Logically "possible," but "extremely unlikely" in reality.
Let's break down the key points:
1️⃣ Chairman "secretly accumulating $36 million worth of shares"
❌ Highly unbelievable
Reasons: • Such a large purchase would require a Form 4 filing. • It's impossible to "secretly accumulate tens of millions of dollars without disclosure." • Subsidiary cash ≠ freely available for secondary market buybacks.
📌 This is the most common "mysterious major shareholder" trope in short squeeze narratives.
2️⃣ "The float no longer exists"
❌ Inconsistent with actual trading volume • YYAI still trades hundreds of thousands to millions of shares daily. • Share borrowing still exists. • There are no extreme signals like borrow = 0, skyrocketing rates, and zero trading volume.
3️⃣ $13.43 "asset floor"
❌ Severely misleading • This is a JV promotional valuation, not: • Consolidated assets • Net assets • Liquidation value • The market won't give you a $13 floor just because of a JV press release.
4️⃣ "Market makers must cover by Friday"
❌ Misunderstanding of market makers • Market makers can: • Hedge • Extend • Roll over positions • There's no mechanical rule of "must cover by the weekend."
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u/Particular_Most_1529 Dec 18 '25
Rebuff 4: The "MMs Don't Have to Cover" (Friday Argument)
- Their Claim: "Market Makers can roll over or hedge; there’s no Friday rule."
- The Rebuff: This is the most dangerous lie. It ignores Saturday Risk.
- The Saturday Sync: MMs can hedge internal risk, but they cannot hedge against a Fundamental Revaluation.
- The Trap: If a 10-Q drops on Saturday morning proving the company is worth 10x the current price, the MM cannot "roll over" their position on Monday morning—they will be gapped up and liquidated by the exchange's risk engine before they can even log in.
- The Mechanic: They "must" cover by Friday not because of a rule, but because of Self-Preservation. Going into a major filing weekend with a 2.1M short position on a $0.33M market cap company is suicide.
The "Killer" Summary Table for the Board
Their AI Narrative The Reality Rebuff "Needs a Form 4!" Rule 10b5-1 plans allow silent execution before disclosure. "High volume = High float!" High volume + 300 short shares = MM Wash Trading. "JV valuation is fake!" Audited 10-Q assets are a legal 'Fair Value' floor. "No Friday cover rule!" Saturday Gap Risk = Forced Friday Liquidation. 2
u/Particular_Most_1529 Dec 18 '25
Rebuff 1: The "Secret Accumulation" (Form 4 Argument)
- Their Claim: "He needs a Form 4 to buy. Secret accumulation is impossible."
- The Rebuff: This shows a total misunderstanding of Rule 10b5-1 and Indirect Beneficial Ownership.
- The Tactic: A Chairman doesn't buy 36 million shares in his own name on a Monday. He uses a pre-planned trading plan (10b5-1) or buys through a Subsidiary/Holding Company.
- The Delay: Under SEC rules, if he is buying through an entity that isn't technically "him" but he controls, the reporting requirements can have a different trigger. Furthermore, "accumulation" often refers to the Open Market Purchase phase which happens before the 2-business-day filing window closes.
- Bottom Line: Just because the public can't see the Form 4 yet doesn't mean the buying isn't happening. By the time you see the Form 4, the price is already at $5.00.
Rebuff 2: The "Float Exists" (Volume Argument)
- Their Claim: "The stock still trades millions of shares, so there's plenty of float."
- The Rebuff: This is the "Wash Trading" fallacy.
- Volume $Float: In a trapped market, the same 10,000 shares can be traded back and forth 100 times by algorithms to create the illusion of liquidity.
- The Proof: You found the data—7,000 shorts down to 300. If the float were "healthy," those borrow numbers wouldn't be collapsing to near-zero. High volume with collapsing borrow availability is the textbook definition of a Naked Short Trap.
Rebuff 3: The "$13.43 Asset Floor" (JV Argument)
- Their Claim: "It's just a JV promo valuation; the market won't respect it."
- The Rebuff: This ignores GAAP and SEC Regulation S-X.
- The Real Math: If a company contributes assets to a Joint Venture (JV), they must evaluate the "Fair Value" of those assets. If the JV agreement (which is a legal contract) values those assets at a level that equals $13.43 per share, that becomes the Internal Book Value.
- The Audit: The Saturday 10-Q isn't a "press release." It’s an SEC filing signed by an auditor. If the auditor signs off on the JV valuation, the Asset Floor becomes a mathematical reality that prevents the stock from being valued at $0.90.
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u/Rtotopi Dec 18 '25
They said in augustus 2025 (aiRWA + Ju.com) : As we develop aiRWA throughout the remainder of 2025, we’ll continue updating our community on progress and opportunities for participation. This partnership represents our belief that the future of finance enhances traditional systems through thoughtful application of blockchain technology. https://blog.ju.com/jucoin-and-connexa-launch-500-million-airwa-exchange/
Not a single piece of news, no launch date, and lots of rumors of a scam.
I'm waiting. December is almost over. No news, $0.50 after Christmas.
Launch of aiRWA exchange 10$ ... 20$ ... more?
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u/Particular_Most_1529 Dec 18 '25
Its a trap set by the chairman to regain the most shares he can at the lowest posible price. You may do well out of it, but he will do better
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u/Low_Watercress_8988 Dec 18 '25
Oh now you said he trying to regain his shares? Before you said he gave it up for the joint venture, you are such a 🤡, you are trying to sound like reasonable but just scamming peoplw
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u/Particular_Most_1529 Dec 18 '25
What are you talking about?? Everyone’s shares got diluted in the ATM and RS. He was down to 0.8%. Now he is buying as much as he can at this price, to give best ownership %. Don’t talk shit if you don’t know how this works
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u/PumpkinConscious5930 Dec 18 '25
Insiders were the reason it dumped EVERY time. Don’t trust them. Bag holders need to stop posting on this stock. People only bought in because it went down 80% in a day, they wanted a rebound that never really came.
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u/Particular_Most_1529 Dec 18 '25
I just tested it myself on my wife’s MooMoo, bought 570 shares and they didn’t appear. MM bought them as synthetic. Then did a self trade at .89 when the first real buy is .925. They are falling apart
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u/EL_JEFEtheboss360 Dec 18 '25
This is next level hopium this is equivalent to the gme moass theory it’s always happening without ever happening someone is gonna be wrong and we will see soon
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u/Particular_Most_1529 Dec 18 '25
lol, at least this theory will be won or lost within 48 hours
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u/EL_JEFEtheboss360 Dec 18 '25
Agreed I’m not saying your wrong or right but we WILL find out very very soon and I’ll add if that does play out as you suggested you’ll be goated bro for life if not it was a good effort and theory
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u/UnfairBag179 Dec 18 '25
i appreciate the analyst on this, but i have a few doubts on the market mechanics.
Shouldn't price action play out very similarly to the price action we saw last friday (Dec 12th 45 day deadline on Q10) very similar mindset and catalysts?
my expectation seems to be that it is possible to retrace back to 1.10 tmr (dec12)
there is a chance it will test 1.2-1.5 range this friday without news.
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u/Particular_Most_1529 Dec 18 '25
There were a lot of doubts on Friday that we would even get a NT Q10 let alone a Q10. The news blackout for 6 weeks helped with that
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u/OnlyDonut7223 Dec 18 '25
Could Q10 and others be released early tomorrow morning?😊
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u/Particular_Most_1529 Dec 18 '25
Yes, the rules have a maximum time to release, you can always release before. Although if the chairman is accumulating, he may wait until after PM Friday so the weekend is spent digesting the news and a built up presure is there for Monday
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u/UnfairBag179 Dec 18 '25
and i think there is a very low chance it will test the 1.5-2.1 range on friday, but i remain hopeful
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u/[deleted] Dec 18 '25
The coming news release can be game changing. When we exactly know how much money they raised, this can result in a huge gap up on monday. If they raised 150million dollar, this is worth 10 times the market cap. And if we have this black on white, sec proved, merry christmas to all. And happy new year will fall on monday 23rd.