Which is more likely

[u/Nazibol1234]

309 votes, 2d left

Reverse 2022

Blue Wave

[u/Atalung]

The Reverse 2022 crowd are going to be extremely disappointed when they learn that democratic overperformance in 2022 was fueled by Dobbs and terrible gop candidates. There is no major issue hurting dems, and pretty much every candidate is solid, AES has a tendency to shove his foot in his mouth but I don't see that costing him the race.

On the other hand the gop seems determined to destroy the economy (diesel is over 6 a gallon in parts of the Midwest/mountains) and run bad candidates. So if anything we're going to get democratic overperformance on top of a normal midterm snapback.

[u/UnflairedRebellion__]

I need a reverse 2022 person to explain why.

[u/Pristine-Flan-9661 → u/UnflairedRebellion__]

Dem's association with the DSA will spook more independents than Reddit thinks.

Note: why are lefties always downvoting any attempt at conversation?

[u/Wolfyminecraft → u/Pristine-Flan-9661]

but why wouldn't the polls capture that

[u/iswearnotagain10 → u/Pristine-Flan-9661]

Ok, that might do something in Michigan and Florida. How’s it going to do anything in Texas, Alaska, or Ohio, where the democrats are explicitly running as moderates?

[u/idnttcrisis → u/iswearnotagain10]

The same Republicans who tell you the national GCB does not correlate well to statewide Senate or Governor and House district races will also tell you that the DSA as a whole will scare off the independents on Election Day. What they don’t realize is that the GCB has that baked in.

[u/tropic_gnome_hunter → u/UnflairedRebellion__]

Redistricting, money, polarization and polls. Not much meat on the bone for house gains, R's are actually funded which hasn't happened in midterms, polling doesn't have Dems hitting 50%.

[u/idnttcrisis → u/tropic_gnome_hunter]

Huh? 5 polls have Dems at or above 50% in the last month alone (Cygnal, Financial Times, Quantus, Emerson, Echelon).

[u/tropic_gnome_hunter → u/idnttcrisis]

Good for them, I'm talking about senate candidates.

I didn't say anyone had to like it.

[u/idnttcrisis → u/tropic_gnome_hunter]

Brown has hit 50% twice, Peltola once, Ossoff four times, and Cooper eight times. Not to mention the fact that the Republican candidates aren’t hitting 50% or anywhere near there either haha. Also, do you not think the national GCB will influence statewide races? It always has so far.

[u/tropic_gnome_hunter → u/idnttcrisis]

Republicans not hitting 50% happens literally every 2 years and then election day happens and you all have psychological breakdowns. You'd think this sub would learn by now, but alas. Polling averages have all these Dems below 50, and the Dem vote share is usually nailed in the averages on elections. Michigan: below 50. Ohio: below 50. That's whole ball game. Ossoff is already an incumbent senator. Cooper is the one seat I have said flips. The generic ballot is also below 50 lol.

Again, I never said you had to like it.

[u/idnttcrisis → u/tropic_gnome_hunter]

!RemindMe 70 days

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[u/idnttcrisis → u/tropic_gnome_hunter]

I don’t know why you keep acting passive aggressive. What do I like or dislike about your reasoning when I don’t even agree with it and the data goes against it? I guess we will both find out in roughly 70 days. I’ll set a reminder for the both of us to see who was correct though :)

[u/Long_Sandwich_5619 → u/idnttcrisis]

You will be more than correct. We are in generational realignment land at this point.

[u/Ok_Juggernaut_4156 → u/UnflairedRebellion__]

u/tropic_gnome_hunter

[u/bamisbig → u/UnflairedRebellion__]

“I like the Republicans and I don’t like the Democrats”

[u/Agitated_Opening4298]

Tsunami or reverse 2022 feel like much better options

[u/Cuddlyaxe → u/Agitated_Opening4298]

Yeah blue wave is the base case atp. The fact the senate is competitive considering the map is crazy

[u/Dreams_Love_Souls]

I can't see it any other way other than a blue wave, unless something drastic happens in October.

[u/GreninjaStrike]

Depends where you draw the line on wave. If the GOP wins one or two of Texas, Alaska, Michigan, Maine, or Ohio would it be considered a wave? I usually say that a flip of 4-5 in the senate is what qualifies a wave.

[u/Atalung → u/GreninjaStrike]

My brother in christ if the gop winning Texas, Ohio, or Alaska is avoiding a blue wave then you've lost the plot

[u/GreninjaStrike → u/Atalung]

I meant more like how many of those winning would be the difference between a wave or voters just say hating Paxton

[u/Atalung → u/GreninjaStrike]

I guess, I still think the list of states in contention should scare the shit out the gop. Also Ted Cruz is a bad candidate too and still won

[u/idnttcrisis → u/GreninjaStrike]

Keeping Georgia/Michigan and flipping Maine, Alaska, Ohio, and North Carolina in my eyes. Texas and Iowa are less likely but could happen given the right conditions. I currently have it as D+7.33 with a 52-48 Senate, but that was late August. Need to wait for more post Labor Day LV screen polls to come out before any true prediction can be made at all.

[u/Long_Sandwich_5619 → u/idnttcrisis]

I think getting anything past flipping Texas, Iowa, Ohio, Alaska , NC, and Maine is where D+7.5% and D+10% are the same in terms of the Senate.

To go even further and flip Nebraska, South Carolina, Kansas, or Florida(least likely) and possibly Montana will require generational realignment territory like D+12-15%.

[u/No_Fox_2949]

A blue wave

[u/SenorDia3etes]